4xForecaster
Long

Bulls Held At Bearish Trench ... Bullish Outlook | $BTC #Bitcoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
4615 64 13
Friends,

As twitted multiple times so far, the 652.26/666.74 overhead resistance was forecast as a difficult bearish entrenchment against which bull might endure a protracted battle.

Also mentioned was the speculative Kiss-of-Death pattern which I explained might develop along the course of this overhead resistance, to ultimately find a technical support (not from predictive model, but purely structurally-driven) at 613.03.

At this point, I decided to produce a new chart so that we may concentrate on this small, but important pivotal event: Small in terms of expected price range, but pivotal, as a break of this overhead resistance range would provide the bullish market reversal confirmation signal.

Feel free to consult the recent analyses in the linked references associated with this chart. Your prior comments and contribution are highly appreciated, as well as your kind referral to friends and colleagues: Thank you for it.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, CO USA


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Twitter: @4xForecasting
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4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
04 JUL 014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD fell near 613.03 as forecast - Added downside remain possible - Model = BULLISH -
snapshot
via http://www.tradingview.com"

snapshot


David
Reply
venzen
2 years ago
Ha! Kiss of Death... the BTC romance continues!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
06 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD threatens bears @638 + KoD completion; Bullish outlook; support @613 lurks -
snapshot
http://www.tradingview.com #bitcoin"


snapshot



Crypt'ers:

As forecast, KoD is shaping up, although it remains to be proven. Still, price is carving new discreet highs in the shape of a KoD pattern. I would wait for a material display of such bear-threat using a structural level that was defined earlier at $638.00.

Recall that the Kiss-of-Death ("KoD") pattern is a counter-trend which in this case, would seek completion at a triple-top formation. This would occur once the large parabola completes right after a smaller parabola.

Once KoD completes, it tends to throw price to lower lows at depth that typically seek a Fib-pace, such as 1.414 x lower parabola height, or even 1.618 - This is to imply that bears are concentrating at the triple-top price level, ready to claw bulls down, unless the market remains bullish and able to surpass that bearish entrenchment.

Support at 613.03 remains intact and in force for the moment.

Still on a roadtrip, so I will chime in as much as I can grab a laptop + wireless + time.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hmm, this does not look as a KoD anymore. Uptrend started June 25th is clearly broken now. How probable do you think it is it stops above $610-613 vs. going into $5xx again?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
@Asterix - It never did look like a KoD, as the KoD has not completed (it would have completed had price rallied for a third time near the overhead pink range resistance. However, the KoD remains pending and still probable at this point, as price continues to seek support).

Support can be provided by the first defined level at 613.03, which remains the most anticipated level, based on structure and potential pattern development (i.e.: inverted H&S).

A low as deep as a revalidation near 554.00 is also possible. The market will do what it needs to do to shake weak hands and assume institutional positions at a much discounted premium.

David
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, thanks for such a prompt reply :). I agree there is still a lot of "weak hands" remaining that has to be shaken before next rally. moreover, almost everybody recently was firmly convinced that that price will go (sharp) up after the auction that it worried me - looked like everybody went long already. I still only bought less than 10% of my target btc allocation, just wondering at which price I should start to buy. Any tips appreciated :). I am still hoping to see $5xx again, but leaning toward starting to buy now to make sure I will have enough time to buy in a calm and controlled manner and not to miss next rally. Although still worried about extremely bullish investor sentiment and record high leveraged btc long positions on bitfinex.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
07 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD validated forecast structural support; Bullish outlook still prevails:
snapshot
via http://www.tradingview.com | #bitcoin"

snapshot


David
Reply
612.9 -- pretty close to a 613 touch ;)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
@ronfkingswanson - Not too bad on a H4. If candle closes above that level and price returned back up to challenge and finally closed above the 638.00 bearish defense, then I'd feel pretty good from a bullish standpoint.

David
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yeah, congratulation, David, on uncannily accurate calling of the support :)
+1 Reply
johnrfraser ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
My thought exactly too. I realized I wasn't going to make the 606 bid I had on Bitfinex, when I saw the 616.73 bounce corresponding to 612.9 on Bitstamp. Hit Dead On as you say :-) Impressive.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
10 JUL 2014 - Forecast:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD remains bullish per predictive model despite protracted sideways move since 613.03 target hit:
snapshot
@tradingview"


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Traders,

Following a dead-on hit of the forecast target @ 613.03, price has remained in a protracted sideways move. However, looking at within the predictive/forecasting model, the bullish directional bias remains intact. Nonetheless, a break-below/close-below event at that same 613.03 should concern bulls without necessarily trigger a reversal in the current bullish directional bias - Such a change would only occur per model, and not per price's own action.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
things look pretty uncertain for the bulls :( I don't see a bounce in sight yet.
+1 Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
613 broken! run for your lives! panic sell!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
10 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"As $BTCUSD builds support @613.03, watch for a potential Wolfe Waves pattern:

snapshot


@tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin"


snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
ronfkingswanson PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
wolfe waves (aka 3-drives) played out perfectly. remains to be seen if we'll get past the pink resistance again
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
11 MJUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD rallied from Point-5 at pattern completion - Now testing 638.00; Bullish outlook:
snapshot
via http://www.tradingview.com"

snapshot


As indicated: Bullish outlook.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"@johnrfraser1 - Re: $BTCUSD/Bitstamp - Less likely to decline per model. Model now eyes 651.14 and 659.71 as next prob tgts | $BTC #bitcoin "

snapshot



Traders,

Model asserts a bullish upturn at this point, favoring a rallying with S/T targets set as follows:

1 - 651.14

and

2 - 659.71

These two targets would correspond to a bearish trench encampment, so expect a significant resistance and probable Fib-paced throw-down to at LEAST 50% retracement of the impulse that originated from our target line at 613.03.

This would effectively complete several geometries:

1 - KoD
2 - Shark
3 - Triple-top

In terms of a Shark completion, the retracement would occur either at the 0.886 or the 1.131 of zero-X impulse. In such a case, then the Shark pattern would offer the following approximated reversal levels:

1 - 653.64

and

2 - 664.90.

Either way (pattern-based or model-based forecasting), any technical interpretation will foretell a high-probability embattlement ahead.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Many thanks for this David.
I'm just waiting for the end of this run of reds before buying in! :-)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - What set of rules, indicators or signal are you using, if you do not mind me asking.
- David
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. Thanks for your question.
I use 1D, 240 and 60 BTCUSD charts.
I’m favoring Heikin Ashi lately to try to keep a better grasp of trends.
I use PSAR, MFI, MACD and Schaff Trend Cycle.
Volume as the barometer.
I chose MFI as it appeared to have far fewer signals than RSI and CCI and that it seemed to correlate well with the charts. Its moves seem quite bold and clear too so I find it easier to digest than the others.
I’m looking for S&R levels and trends in MFI, then looking for failures on repeat visits.
Your tip the other day to compare proportional differences in Price and MFI to gauge sentiment was new to me. Thank you again.
I’m looking for basic line patterns; respected price lines for S&R, support becomes resistance/vice versa, channels, pennants and flags. Using Fib levels to support my choice of levels.
My buy signal would be a bounce off of strong price and MFI line with growing volume…confluence across 1D, 240 and 60 charts…whilst at the same time, having confluence of PSAR and MACD crossovers…with the Schaff cycle for added confirmation.
As example attaching my 1D chart which concerns me…3 clear waves forming now so confirmation of a Flag…my fear is that breakout will be downwards due to multiple failure at this 645-665 level.
How does it sound?!
Many thanks for your interest David.
John
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hi, @johnrfraser - Sorry for this delayed reply. Your chart remains valid based on the presented geometry. When passed through my model, an early bullish reversal signal is shown, so the trendline in your chart remains in force and suggests added support going forward.

I am not sure what the 3-2-1 refers to, but I agree that it remains important to remain cognizant and note physical contact points with overarching trendlines, as it may reveal a more complex geometry affecting the current and future price action, as Wolfe Waves, 3-Drives or Elliott Waves' Diagonal Triangle might tend to do.

I will construct and analyses a BTCUSD/Bitfinex chart as soon as I can, simply to keep tab on the current geometric development.

Cheers and thank you for chiming in.

David Alcindor
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, thanks so much for taking a look. The 3-2-1 was actually a countdown of failures at the 640-660 level which I thought converged to massive failure once the longterm line was crossed.
I realise now that these failures accompanied by the decreasing volume, fit a bullish pennant pattern?
Taking on board your posts and bullish results...trying to decipher some of the underlying clues for myself...
Looking forward to your Bitfinex chart.
Thanks again,
John
+1 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, I was revising your post here and drew up the fib levels as you described...they're looking really great to me...hard matches on every single level! Watching closely to see those Dead on hits :-)
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hell @johnrfraser - Contrary to most trader's opinion, the markets move not because of retail interest, but because of large orders placed by institutions - even in the case of bitcoin.

I am currently receiving orientation and in-house training by a group of professional traders located at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (some worked for the likes of Goldman-Sachs), and I can tell you that this is a real eye opener.

I say all this to respond to your chart above.

Simply put, ALL financial markets are institutionally-driven, and all institutions are algo/volgo-driven. Basically, price moves not because there is a sudden coordination of retail traders that banded together to move a stock, option or what have you. Instead, retailers are reactionary traders, while institutions are actionary traders, such that one represents the locomotive, and the rest represent the wagons, all linked on a loosely, elastic connection. Regardless of the system, the locomotive will call the top, reversals, and everything else in between.

Everything else in-between in measured by discreet values which are derived and fed into algos, so as to remain invariables across markets, instruments and timeframes. This is in fact what confers that so-called "fractal" nature of the market. There isn't anything magic about this at all. If all we used was 0.333 and 0.666, then it goes without saying that all charts would behave at price action that would easily reveal next levels of R/S, as everything would come in multiples of thirds.

Instead, what is occurring is a whole lot more subtle. While the root number (or coefficient, if you'd like), is 0.618, what you end up having is a price paced at exactly that coefficient, such that regardless of markets, instruments, time of day and timeframes, you would see this movement quite reliably.

What is most important in the study of forecasting and predictive analysis is to be able to simplify all things under the premise I am assuming above. I hit my forecasts, call tops and bottoms, and arrive at wild predictions not because I "feel" or "wish" price to reach a certain level, but because the overlay of time, price, volume, combined with fundamental analysis (about 10-20% contribution) and proprietary geometries (about 30-50% contribution), all of which I share with the public - without revealing the formulas, but this too goes without saying.

So, as you project the Fibs, expect price to adhere to an arithmetic conformity, whose pacing coefficient is fed by the "Golden number". And this is really an oversimplification.

In my analyses, I can tell you that certain multiples are used as "codes" for reversals (true a good 80+% of the time), while other multiples are used to pace a particular geometric pattern at such an early stage that I can often forecast whether the pattern will be a Bat or would extend to a Crab, for instance.

In addition to this patterns revealed by Scott Carney, I have also discovered other ones that I use for "crazy" forecasts, such as the ones listed in my signature on Twitter: bit.ly/16JMnH8.

Overall, price will "magnet" to predictable levels, on either side of the directional line (i.e.: either if rallying under a bullish momentum, or if declining under a bearish momentum). The question that remains is: What is the underlying dominant trend? Up or down?

In your chart, my predictive/forecasting model (which I use for directional bias prediction/reversal definition and target forecasting) continues to favor the bullish side. So, going forwards, I would expect continued Fib-based price pacing, as the algos absorb orders and market-makers maintain an orderly format of this action.

Take care.

David
+6 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Wow. Thanks David. I’m going to get another coffee now and re-read that a few more times ;-)
The locomotive, wagon analogy is really clear and I’m beginning to see what you mean and how it might inform. If you can get an indication of what the locomotive is doing, then the rest is just a matter of lag, mixed with a bit of resonance I imagine.
First step for me was seeing that perfect set of fib levels which was a big surprise…I’ve placed many of those now, over many charts and not seen that kind of a fit.
Algorithms and ‘codes’ is another eye opener for me…I shall bare this in mind and try to make sense of it as I study further.
Thanks for a very kind and yet again, invaluable and informative post.
John
PS one question...these large influential institutional orders, they can't be happening right now, not with 4k daily volumes surely? Or is this a sign that the volume's almost entirely commercial positional play now and almost all retailer traders are on the sidelines wondering what's going on...and why it's not dumping having crossed the long term trend line?! :-)
+2 Reply
LastBattle johnrfraser
2 years ago
"they can't be happening right now"

Don't doubt that, it may well be happening right away as the Bitcoins are being bought little by little.
You need to know the fact that there can only be 95% losers and 5% winners, and the 95% may well be retail investors all the time because of emotions and analysis of graph by obvious stuff such as indicators which they may not agree to. (Sometimes its best to do the exact opposite and you are a winner :) )
I usually look at my exit points and reverse engineer about how it is going to get there before I buy. I will have 3 buy points. Whether it is worth losing a little to buy at this, and buying more at that point. (Its all for the long term)

I have been doing my analysis via machine learning and big data. Will share a little more soon :)
+1 Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
Thanks LastBattle. I'm hearing more and more that the majority crowd get damaged...and right now a lot of people seem to expect a drop. Look forward to you sharing more.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - One institutional trader whom later became my technical instructor used to work behind closed doors, getting paid to release news that would cause the retail side to act in a profitable way for his positions. A lot of the news he would release were simply "rumors" qualifying news by conditional caveats such as "could plunge ..., might rise following .... None of that was fundamental analysis, but it really got weak hands going.

In the case of current volumes in bitcoin, I would be speaking out of context and above my head. I do not have depth of market access or other levels of insight ("footprint chart or order flow data), in contrast to the current company that lets me see literally everything. Therefore, I am not sure how to best respond to the volume-related question.

What I can say though is that institutional positions have the ability to absorb an immense retail-side order size and still sit at the same price. A column of orders at the ask will keep matching bidders without necessarily moving price up, especially if the intention is to maintain some latency in the price action (i.e.: keeping the price at a certain fixed range, as if waiting for a formal news release, or perhaps an "insider" bits of data), or the intention is to eventually bring the price lower, thus allowing the institution to download positions at that premium higher position before a profitable decline gets on the way, as in a shorting strategic move.

In the current case, I was able to forecast with some varying degree of accuracy a lot of the price action over the past several months, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to what is waiting for the retail trader at either end of this 4-hour chart.

The model remains bullish, and this is the stick I extent into the dark ahead of me, but the dark remains property of institutional traders who themselves respond to large orders from corporate entities, who themselves strategize based on permissive or prohibitive markets.

What you have in your advantage is that these large businesses (most recently, think of Dell, now accepting Bitcoin for payment, only because its shrinking customer base and depleting income demand a capture of a new source of revenue flow, both in terms of customer kind and currency: In any large corporation, the lifeblood is blood itself, it now that the greenback is not circulating as much, perhaps opening the doors to crypto'ers might provide a substitute blood to the "natural" dollar flow).

In any case, a demand for products and services won't happen without triggering a group of individuals to know that business is now ready to accept their currency. Bitcoin is offering a chance at circulating merchandises at a time when most other consumers are cash-strapped and the banks sit on a broken, ineligible consumer base that has depleted its savings and lost many jobs - In essence, the consumer base is too risky to lend in such an uncertain global economic environment - So expect other business to try to open some flow activity via the cryptos.

This is likely to occur via business demanding the government to growingly recognize the currency, pass laws that would ease its circulation, and incentivize all market participant to "decrypticize" the cryptic currencies.

Once this legislative work becomes mainstream, then watch for this market-based economy to grant more and more "value" to bitcoin. Some businesses might possibly trade away US Dollars, or whatever sovereign denomination they have to build reserves of the crypto. This is when the institutional trades come alive.

Imagine BMW in Qatar accepting bitcoin for a new car. A customer would pay in bitcoin, and the bitcoin would have to be passed on to BMW's german bank for monthly accounting . This transfer of currency is already being done everyday, week or month with hundreds of corporation that repatriate their earnings to their "motherlands".

How is this cash flow occurring?

Very simple: Through intermarket channels.

And who are the contact points between say A local Qatari bank to a State Qatari bank to a German bank? ... Yes: Institutional traders whose roles and responsibilities is to maintain VALUE in the currency exchange of the profits from one country to another. This intermarket currency flow is NOT done at an ATM. The flux is so large that bits and morcels are done over several days, so as not to disrupt the underlying currency strength and to ensure that the value of the bought currency does not go up, or that the value of the sold currency does not weaken, as either event would impact negatively on the end-transfer of the Qatar-based BMW's profits.

One way to do this is for institutional traders to spread a transaction over a certain period of time, or perhaps wait for a favorable market when their analyses indicate a favorable premium ahead. In essence, they are paid to transfer wealth across electronic oceans and over mountainous terrains of super-computers, crackling algo/volgo data every seconds, all so that the instituional trader who is paid to receive the transfer order, remains able to do so at profit, from both the fee and commission he imposes, but also a marginal profit that should result from moving large sums of monies through cyberland.

Okay, so this was a bit of a tangential discussion, but the point is to help you understand that even electronic, intangible currencies have an impact on the market, and that market makers will contain a flow and maintain order as part of "making the market", and that regardless of the number of buyers and sellers on either side of the fence, a volume can be articifially up or down, because the front BID and front ASK values remain entirely controlled by intermediary agents capable to move the markets either side of the directional biases.

So when the opinion is very bullish, expect a calculated decline that allows institutional bitcoin purchasers to enter at an advantageous position. This can be done by some occult news from China. This is a great method, because the whole country remain unverifiable. Once a "bad" news befalls the bitcoin community, watch for loose hands to drop positions. This justifies a drop in price, and thus would allow our (fictitious) Qatari BMW to maintain an advantageous bitcoin value.

Another way for banks to keep data artificially low is by trading on parallel markets. For instance, Forex is traded in tow parallel universes. On one side, you've got bank to bank ("interbank") trades, where only large account holders are allowed to trade. Some retail banks do offer such positions for wealth individuals, but do expect these accounts to be open by large investment groups, hedge funds or other well capitalized entities.

On the other side of that mirrored market is the retail side, encompassing everything from micro to moderately large accounts ($100 to say, $35,000). Here, most of the traders are retail individuals "playing" their luck at a quasi-synchronized market. I say quasi-synchronized, because if you ever held more than one retail account, you will see that a certain time lag or value discrepancy exists among currency values for the same timeframe and same pairs.

This is because each banks are fed data from different sources, and inherent data transfer delay may also play a part (albeit, less and less as data comes through at a light-speed rate nowadays).

These bank would simply open a pool of trades for retail traders the very SAME way a wading pool of toddlers becomes open with water levels between the toddler pool and the parent pool kept connected.

While not much erratic move would happen in the parent pool (interbank activities), a lag and waves of discrepancies are allowed at such a minute level, that it offers the retail banks a microscopic margin in which to derive a profit, without keep price a too wide or too long a lag relative to the parent pool of data.

In any case, I went way out of topic here. My interest though was to remind you that all the volume data may or may not represent a true graphic of what is being built in terms of bitcoin banking infrastructure, bitcoin legislation, or bitcoin "revolution". This remains more true than ever as the more people hear about the name bitcoin, the more resistance their might be at first among dollar Pavlovians.

If the world is indeed opening up to bitcoin, it will be done in the most institutionalied way, which is from the top-down, from state agencies, to banks, then businesses, then people, regardless of how avoidant of this controlling system the bitcoin currency might have wanted it to be in the first place. If there is a perception of a need for currency flow, countries will make it happen, designing laws that would ensure preservation of the same domineering cartels.

So, again: Dell is accepting bitcoin? Let's the corporate transformation begin around a different currency, but likely within a feudal system that is not likely to change the way we are rules ... from the top-down.

David

- Sorry for this huge digression. Got my tea, time and music. What can I say, I'm at work and there is also little to do but think about it all - Thank you for your continued interest - DAA.
+9 Reply
cryptomojo 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It's very interesting to hear how things work from the inside / professional / corporate / governmental perspectives.
Thank you for sharing.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO cryptomojo
2 years ago
@cryptomojo - Thank you. I would take a lot of this information with a grain of salt, as a lot of it is report from professional traders where it remains difficult to verify. My access to their software does indicate a lot of manipulation. For instance, there is a continued abuse in the HFT world, where flash orders trick investors in one direction. Complaints about market manipulation even in the most "regulated" venues still abound.
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
So when the bitcoin ETF launches (assuming it does), would this be the first step in separation of 'parent' and 'toddler' pools within the bitcoin arena? Or will this separation not happen here because we're all already trading in the same space?
The trickling of orders is definitely happening as you say...I was watching the Bitfinex order book when the the price was 621.7...and there were consistently orders for 3 - 4 bitcoins at 624.1 coming in.
I saw this in the 100s last November when it was obviously big buy in action. When I'd seen it in smaller volumes I'd assumed it was exchanges tuning their prices to maintain their price differences.
Thanks a lot David.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@ johnrfraser - The analogy of parent/toddler pool applies to Forex. I am not aware of this pertaining to bitcoin, but I could see how a country would create its own bitcoins, I suppose. At this point of the topic, I would be talking way over my head, as I do not understand the bitcoin manufacturing as well as I am familiar with the intermarket analyses. However, a ETF would probably even out the field, especially one that would consolidate all of the remaining bitcoin markets (i.e.: bitfinex + bitstamp + BTCe)
- David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
13 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD remains bullish; may seek support @619.32:

snapshot

via @tradingview

$BTC #bitcoin $LTC #litecoin $Gold #forex $USD"


snapshot



Traders,

Moving into this early Sunday morning (from Denver, Colorado time, that is), $BTCUSD/Bitstamp looks prepared to attempt another leg up. The model remains bullish, and the overhead targets defined in it remain intact and in force. Looking at finer levels, a shallow interim decline remains a possibility, but it is not threatening the larger bullish outlook for the time being.

Have a great Sunday with friends and family.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Denver, Colorado
+2 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
With triple top on 1h charts shallow decline seem very likely, although I agree with long term bullish outlook.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
14 JUL 2014 - update:

-----------------------------------
From Twitter:

$BTCUSD steady at forecast 619.32; Outlook remains bullish

snapshot

via http://www.tradingview.com

$BTC $LTC #bitcoin $USD
---------------------------------


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Crypto'ers,

As forecast, a shallow decline occurred right at the forecast 619.32 level. Since then, price has steadied with multiple pinbars pointing to a bullish expectancy. All this remains in line with directional forecast. All targets remains intact and in force.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
17 JUL 2014 - Update:

------------------------------------
From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD: If H4 candle closes (+) = Bullish SIGNAL confirmed; Hi-ProbTG @666 + 685:

snapshot

via @tradingview

#bitcoin $BTC"
-----------------------------------

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Crypto'ers,

As indicated in the tweet, the model has been posting an early market reversal signal to the bullside. However, the recent sideways, which tethered price right along the forecast levels I had predefined, has finally peeled of via a significant 4-hour bullish candle.

This price action will likely move the model's signal on to a bullish market reversal confirmation. However, as the candle continues to evolve, there is NO telling until the candle completes, closes and a new one takes over the action.

Now that you know what to look for, stay tuned!

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
18 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

----------------------------------------
$BTCUSD bulls continue to drilling thru bear cave (purple rectangle) towards light:

snapshot

via @tradingview

$BTC #bitcoin
----------------------------------------

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
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+3 Reply
venzen 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, I read your posts above with great interest and appreciate you sharing your insight about when, how and why institutional traders move the market.

We have all studied the early years of the Bitcoin chart chart, arguably, there was little or no institutional interest. The chart patterns and wave relationships (fib ratios, corrective combinations, etc) have some similarities and some differences to the last year's chart - which can be said (from news announcements and public statements) to definitely include institutional players.

What is your take on this evolution? Bitcoin's price history must be unique, in that most currencies/commodities involve institutions from the very start. Market moves, prior to, and after institutional entry to the market place do not seem that different - as if the institutions also have constraints and limits of control over price...
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------------
$BTCUSD remains above 619.32 support; Next resistance @632.96 ; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


via @tradingview | #bitcoin $BTC
------------------------------

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David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
24 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
---------------------------------
$BTCUSD tests support; model defines potential low-support @ 576.39

chart
snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin
---------------------------------


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David Alcindor

Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks, I was also thinking around $575.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------------
Model points to strong interim support @593.28; If breaks, floor opens to 568.22

snapshot


@tradingview $BTCUSD #bitcoin
---------------------------


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Crypto'ers,

Model is currently refining potential downwards support levels. Newly defined:

1 - 593.28 - Defined as a potential support level, which is probably continue to provide only interim support before opening floor to lower levels.

and

TG-Lo = 568.22 - 26 JUL 2014 - Defined today as a strong floor with reversal potentials.

Note that 581.62 and 576.39 are both lower probability levels of support which were defined in an earlier analysis. I have left these values within the chart as they are likely going to play some temporizing role in the current price descent. However, I remain open to the lower probability which TG-Lo offers to price's ability to rappel down to that bearish cavernous level.


Overall, bitcoin remains a favored asset. Businesses are slowly but positively developing infrastructures and forcing regulatory bodies to reconsider the inclusion of this novel currency into the cash flow of domestic industries across the globe.

At this point, the model has turned cautiously bearish WITHOUT a bearish confirmation signal, but I expect this to remain temporary, considering the supportive fundamental background upon which the cryptocurrencies seem to enjoy every month.

+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 JUL 2014 - Technical Addendum:

From Twitter:
------------------------------------
$BTCUSD - Look for potential Wolfe Waves/#ElliottWave's Diagonal triangle geometric development:

snapshot


via @tradingview
------------------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

As indicated before, technical traders might potentially perceive the development of 1) Wolfe Waves patterns, 2) Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangle, or a 3-Drives Patterns at this particular junction, especially as a reversal is expected per model.

I have added a descending triangle to highlight the potential development of such geometry. The points are enumerated as if the geometry under consideration fell under the Wolve Waves, even though it would also answer to Elliott Wave's and the 3-Drives Pattern requirements.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
artem.koloskov 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
Looks like number 5 have been hit. Now to see if pattern plays out (and it played out a lot of times, since i learned about it from your charts:))
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO artem.koloskov
2 years ago
MACD - Oscillator (bars) is showing a rising moment, while trendlines are turning bullish

Stochs - Moving on to the bullish side following a positive divergence completion

RSI - Rallied from low 30's; now at 37, indicative a mounting bullish pressure

OVERALL - Looks like it could rise from the current price point.
+2 Reply
LastBattle artem.koloskov
2 years ago
big bear flag happening now :D peeling through 560
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
Yes - 581.62 is not potential support, but not likely reversal - David
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
581 is support, but not likely reversal?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------------------
$BTCUSD completes Point 1-4 of a 5-point pattern

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
-------------------------------------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Point-5 remains questionable on the back of a continued possibility of a potential 5-prime development (Wolfe Wave), which Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangle would see as a "Throw-Down" signature.

A condition of completion would be a price crossing above and closing above Point-4 (structural condition).

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Dave, thanks for the update :). Point 4 is around $605?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
@Asterix - Point-4 = 602.83
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Point-4 here refers to the most recent pattern

snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi dave, thx! I knew it was most recent pattern, but it was difficult to read on the charts. Anyway, going another direction right now. Hope the bearish trend will not be confirmed as I am buying on dips.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------
$BTCUSD opted for a complex pattern at 5-prime. Look for 581.62 next:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin
-----------------------


snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
581 broke too... more sell orders are now gathering around 579~581 :(
Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
There is strong support on Stamp at 575. Although the speed of price erosion is concerning :(.
+1 Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
At least I'm long, not too worried about the sell off since its part of my 5 year investment :P I don't count by my fiat but Bitcoins. These 2 wave of dump gave me 3 BTC for free xD

I'm converting those extra BTCs earned to NXT while maintaining the current BTC count
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
28 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
---------------------------
$BTCUSD reached target @658.22; Completes Wolfe extension at 5-second (5"):

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
---------------------------


snapshot



As indicated before, numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, or TG-3) do NOT likely define a reversal level, as opposed to TG-Lo or TG-Hi, which define a reversal at a low or high value, respectively.

At this point, all numerical targets have been reached, leaving TG-Lo = 568.22 as a low-probability, high-reversibility level.

I encourage you to Google the plotting of Wolfe Waves pattern (WW) to appreciate the completion at Point-5, Point-5' and Point5". This geometric completion stands alone and independent of the forecasting that has defined TG-Lo, making this price extension a much lower probability.

As defined before, IF and once a TG-Lo (or a TG-Hi) level is reached, a strong probability of reversal event exists. But it has yet to get there to reach that reversal likelihood.

What is occurring at this point is a "arm-wrestling" between a geometry with the WW and my prop forecasting method.

Good luck.

David
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
$570.... almost hitting :D
wow this is interesting...
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Pretty hard MFI bounce but everything else looks like it still has room to go...do you think this looks like the bottom?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hello @johnrfraser - Predictive model defined a reversal at the current price point, which corresponds to a TG-Lo defined last July 26th - See following chart:

snapshot


I will move the discussion on to that new chart, just to keep comments and eyeballs up potential rally, if indeed TG-Lo is correct - Here is the link to that new chart and discussion thread:

-
Target hit Dead-On; Expecting Reversal | $BTC #bitcoin #forex


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
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