4xForecaster

Today's New Target Hit ... Again. $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2640 27 11
Friends,

Another target hit within hours of its release. Obviously, No bearish water is putting out this bullish fire.

However, as indicated at the release of this 676.67 target this morning, a reversal is probable underway (see technical commentary at the bottom of this thread here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/nIWHo655/).

At this point, and at the risk of sounding redundant to this morning's call, I expect the reversal to be measured at Fib-paces (i.e.: 38.2, 50, or 61.8), although I will wait for details of the model to ascertain a more assuring and precise support determination.

The outlook remains bullish , with a neutral interim while a consolidation completes following the recent ramp-up.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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coinwatcher
2 years ago
It would be nice if the price could hold tough @ ~630 for a few days prior to rising again.
+1 Reply
Jameve
2 years ago
Bitcoin fell to just $615 before curving back up. At the time of this writing, we are again in the 670-680 range.
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icastor
2 years ago
Well 680 is a very strong resistant, if we will break it the price can go up to 770, if not it can fall down to 560
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
04 JUN 2014 Update - NODES, NODULES & OCCULT GEOMETRY-BASED FORECASTING:

... Crypto Found Direction; Now Seeks Support:

Friends,

As we managed to hit all targets on the way to this pan-ultimate forecast top, the quest now is not whether the crypto is in a bearish or bullish trend, but how far down should support be.


snapshot



Some who know me for several years have read some of my lessons on hidden geometries and other cryptic oddities, such as nodular and nodal geometries for S/R definitions, as well as momental line and momental channel, and their impact in price projection.

In this particular case, I decided to look at what hidden geometry could impact on the definition of a support, since this is really the question at hand at this point. So, allow me to define a few concepts first, and then see how it may fit in this play.

A node and a nodule are simply "squares" or an amplitude in price whose center of gravity (i.e.: 0.50 point level) can sometimes projects into the future and impact price action in a way that remains quite remarkable ... When it works, that is. This discovery I made a while ago represented one of the steps that led me to focus solely on predictive analysis and forecasting.

What differentiate a node from a nodule is their relative heights in terms of Fibonacci, which is counted from the beginning of the impulse, don below where the uptrend started. If you measure from that point of origin to the top of that "rectangle", which is merely a temporary respite during price's ascension to higher highs, you will notice that it fails to measure the requisite 38.2% minimum of the move. Therefore, this makes this a MINOR geometric event in the chart, thus defining this as a nodule. Had it reached an amplitude of at least 38.2%, then it would have met the nodal characteristic.

The difference between the two is not minor, as a Node tends to impart a much greater supportive influence on price, as price retraces down to what can be measured as the gravitational point of that node (i.e.: its 50% level). But, in the case of a nodule, this imposition is not as strong, and therefore not as often demonstrable. In any case, I decided to share this discovery with you in here, not knowing ahead of time whether it will impart an supportive effect as price seeks to touch bottom against a 'springboard", as it clearly remains a bullish player.

So, in essence, target is geometrically defined per nodule as:


TG-1 - 569.62 - 04 JUN 14


Time will tell.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
( ... And occult market geometrist, or is that just too weird?)

Reply
Bitcoin 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David-

I believe now Bitcoin price movement can be a bit (pardon pun) easier to TA and predict. It has been a Godzilla in the past though. :)

The best to you,

Trevorr
+1 Reply
Bitcoin Bitcoin
2 years ago
PS You and Danv have more percentage hits on getting this Godzilla tamed than anyone out there IMO. :)
Reply
Bitbuck 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hello David,

Could the area between 612-682 be forming another nodule? Could the nodule 550-593 have been form from new buyers?

Thanks,

Buck
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Bitbuck
2 years ago
Hello @Bitbuck - Yes, it is possible, but typically not that close from the prior one. More likely that a temporary reversal is taking place to allow price to retrace before another up move - David
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4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
06 JUN 2014 Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD remains caught within forecast range after hitting target; favors decline -
snapshot
via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"

snapshot



As you can now tell, not only the top-most target remains valid by virtue of getting hit and persisting as a reversal point, but also the values that were predefined a while ago for that (pink) range, have too remained quite valid, as demonstrated by the candle's bodies remaining strictly restricted within that 630.78/667.80 range.

As price continues its insinuations like a writhing snake in a box, expect the downside to open up to the level that I defined a little while ago. So, until this temporary retracement completes, and as long as the retracement holds its lower ground, I do not foresee any other change in the analysis.

The overall outlook remains bullish, and the interim will probably see some retracement as anticipated - Consider the prior levels of resistance to act as probable levels of support, with the closest to current price retaining the highest probability of reversal, as pointed out by the arrow.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Kilgore 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Do you mean retracement to the $570 before another leg up? That would coincide with the idea of TheChasm that I saw today...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Kilgore
2 years ago
@Kilgore - Yes, I expect that IF any retracement occurred, it would do so at a measured depth, define last Wednesday (June 04th) based on the occult geometries explained in the analysis above. If more traders agree to this, it may possibly carry a self-fulfillment effect necessary to uphold price at that projected level and carry it to higher highs once that consensus level is reached - David
+1 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Dave, we are close to your first target and there was a lot of action in price in the last 24hours - looking forward to your next update :). Is the mid- and long-term outlook still bullish?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
Hell @Asterix. Thank you for the wake up call. I'm letting this one float down the river into the forecast net. Indeed, it is getting close and moving in the forecast direction. So far, so good.

As far as the longer-term outlook, it still looks like it will continue to swim upriver after it sponds a few pip eggs at or near the current target.

If the river goes dry or the fish bellies up down river, I'll make sure to mention such a change in the directional bias, but for now, it remains fishy ... bullish that is.

David
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
(meant "Hello", not "Hell ...") - David
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Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for the update and lol on Hell ;). I am waiting with the fishnets in the 540-580 area, also currently hoping longer term outlook remains bullish.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
@Asterix - Great. Sounds fishy. I mean, good - David
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Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
:) Wow, it falls faster than I expected
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Asterix
2 years ago
Yes, interesting market intervention ... by FBI? (according to article):

Article: "Virtual Currency Slides As FBI Prepares To Dump 144,341 "Silk-Road" Bitcoins"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-12/virtual-currency-slides-fbi-prepares-dump-144341-silk-road-bitcoins

David Alcindor
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yeah, just found out what the catalyst was. Wonder if $541 will hold. This panic selling does not make that much sense to me, they want to sell only 30k btc and they may sell them for close to market prices - although 200k$ deposit to participate is steep.
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ambrosia PRO
2 years ago
There seems to be considerable divergence between the exchanges now. (Bitfinex is 25usd more than bitstamp.) Your predictions are for bitstamp right?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ambrosia
2 years ago
@matthew.ambrosia - Hi, Matt. Yes. I expect that if indeed the Bitstamp exchange is being dumped on (see FBI interference article above), then the distortion across exchanges will take place.

I have not charted Bitfinex yet, but if the distortion persists, it will be necessary to chart each exchange separately.

David
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4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 JUN 2014 - Update:

Twitter released:

"$BTCUSD: Possible technical scenarios: GREEN bulls; YELLOW consolidators; RED bears - https://www.tradingview.com/v/cTkSj9ez/#tc81344 via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"

snapshot



If you are a pure technician, then the expanded chart offers several possibilities, marked in colors.

Note that a multi-month trendline projects to validate today's support, so this bullish scenario remains probable, although it is supported by my own bias of being bullish for this crypto.

Other two scenarios are simply a consolidation or a further decline, both of which are less probable, but cannot never be excluded.

Please, refer to the linked article I provided above regarding FBI intervention, selling bitcoins into the market, thus pressuring the values DOWN. These bitcoins were presumable confiscated from illegable trades, thus reintroduced into the market (which exchange? Not sure).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, are you aware of the recent development of price divergence between stamp and other exchanges (namely, bitfinex)? Stamp hit a low of 550 whereas bitfinex went to just 575.2 :s What are your thoughts on this?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
@Jameve - I expect some cross-exchange elasticity, as would exist between close related currencies, such as major Forex pairs relative to the USD.
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DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hi David, Great work again mate. I just wanted to get your input into my 'bump & run' chart from two months ago. I have also posted on DanV's chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/qm7cnu9V/#c81355) as you two are the only guys I put any faith in when it comes to reading & forecasting charts (no offence to anyone else out there). The last time you reviewed it you made the comment that I mislabelled the overall move and it really should be a AB=CD of which I agree. Question is, do you see any evidence of it continuing in this larger pattern or are your tools focused more on the medium term H4 & Daily charts.

Thanks again for sharing your analysis

BTC (Weekly) - bump and run theory
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanLaffas
2 years ago
Hello, @DanLaffas - First, thank you for your vote of confidence. I very much appreciate your kind words.

Second, there are several ways to look at the chart. Each trader will look at it with a bias, based on pre-existing knowledge of patterns, projected trendlines, ... etc. So, at the end, a lot of speculations emerge to make any head spin.

Over the past months, I have offered several predictive/forecasting model-based analyses for well-defined targets, such as the following, where each targets were being hit one after the other, as well as a top-most target where I called a reversal:

snapshot


I also offered a longer timeframe view using standard trendlines, such as this following chart, in which a mixture of speculative targets are mixed with a standard technical analysis:

snapshot


Most recently, I offered a slim explanation of momental lines, illustrating in this following chart how they impact price's projected support and resistance. For instance, today price fell in a way that would appear too random were it not for this momental line support (recent green arrow):

snapshot


In terms of projected low, I also referred to Harry S. Dent's explanation that all bubbles return to their baseline growth trendline, using the following illustration, where the lowest possible trendline would be used by that author to define the lowest possible target:

snapshot



OVERALL: I am reviewing a lot of the themes that I have covered over the past weeks and months, mainly to explain that there are a lot of ways to look at chart. You are asking me about a larger AB=CD pattern, and whether it would complete within that weekly chart or whether my shorter timeframe models (M15, H4, Daily) are calling for something that could upset that weekly chart projection.

I am not sure how to best answer this, because my timeframes can still find validation without frustrating a weekly chart. In the case of a AB=CD pattern, especially one that involves a possible corrective move from an Elliott Wave price action, I am sure that DanV would be one to turn to, because these patterns are fractal, so the timeframe matters less than it would in my predictive/forecasting model.

Looking at that model at the weekly level, all I can say is that the trend has moved to the upside, but no bullish reversal confirmation has been generated at that timeframe level - In fact, in general rule, i do not look for such signal at that level, as I have done most of my research at the lower levels. If I did not know what timeframe that was, the weekly channel would be generating a premature, unconfirmed market reversal signal to the upside.

And this is the problem: The weekly (and daily as well), are the institutional levels one should consider IF the traded asset was a currency (i.e.: Forex), because liquid providers, banks and institutional players have a longer time interest, having ot move a whole lot more price-moving flux of money.

Crypto-currencies being so much more, well cryptic, they make it very difficult to forecast at levels any higher than H4 and perhaps daily levels.

I hope I have not put you to sleep here, by simply stating that weekly charts are not worth using in my forecasting model as far as Cryptos go (and may be this will change over time as the currency become more stable), but I would definitely look at EW patterns, as long as the crypto does submit itself to its rules. DanV would be one guy to ask about this compliance.

David
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4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 JUN 2014 - Target Hit:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD Target Hit: Recent FBI interference may distort #bitcoin further -
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@tradingview | #litecoin $BTC $LTC #Forex"

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As per forecast, target got hit. I would have expected a "dead-on" hit, where the tip of the candle validates the target, but in this case, a separate phenomenon occurred, whereby the close/open edges of two separate candles occurred right at the target. This may or may not be the result of a market distortion, considering the recent FBI news, which informed the public of its sell of bitcoin into the market, thus forcing a brisk and wide price action to the downside.

If you review my recent notes from a few hours ago, you may also notice that this chaos was quite not so chaotic, as it came to validate a momental line I had defined several weeks ago, as per the following chart:

snapshot


As separate set of trendlines also exist here, using the standard price highs and lows:

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Regardless of the methodology that stomped falling price today, the market for bitcoin remains bullish, unless an overwhelming distortion occurs through the helping hands of institutional forces (banks or government). In which case, it might become more difficult to offer a safe and sound forecast.

For now, price is acting as per forecast, and the outlook remains bullish.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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