4xForecaster

Today's New Target Hit ... Again. $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Friends,

Another target hit within hours of its release. Obviously, No bearish water is putting out this bullish fire.

However, as indicated at the release of this 676.67 target this morning, a reversal is probable underway (see technical commentary at the bottom of this thread here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/nIWHo655/).

At this point, and at the risk of sounding redundant to this morning's call, I expect the reversal to be measured at Fib-paces (i.e.: 38.2, 50, or 61.8), although I will wait for details of the model to ascertain a more assuring and precise support determination.

The outlook remains bullish , with a neutral interim while a consolidation completes following the recent ramp-up.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
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12 JUN 2014 - Target Hit:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD Target Hit: Recent FBI interference may distort #bitcoin further -
snapshot
@tradingview | #litecoin $BTC $LTC #Forex"

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As per forecast, target got hit. I would have expected a "dead-on" hit, where the tip of the candle validates the target, but in this case, a separate phenomenon occurred, whereby the close/open edges of two separate candles occurred right at the target. This may or may not be the result of a market distortion, considering the recent FBI news, which informed the public of its sell of bitcoin into the market, thus forcing a brisk and wide price action to the downside.

If you review my recent notes from a few hours ago, you may also notice that this chaos was quite not so chaotic, as it came to validate a momental line I had defined several weeks ago, as per the following chart:

snapshot


As separate set of trendlines also exist here, using the standard price highs and lows:

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Regardless of the methodology that stomped falling price today, the market for bitcoin remains bullish, unless an overwhelming distortion occurs through the helping hands of institutional forces (banks or government). In which case, it might become more difficult to offer a safe and sound forecast.

For now, price is acting as per forecast, and the outlook remains bullish.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
Hi David, Great work again mate. I just wanted to get your input into my 'bump & run' chart from two months ago. I have also posted on DanV's chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/qm7cnu9V/#c81355) as you two are the only guys I put any faith in when it comes to reading & forecasting charts (no offence to anyone else out there). The last time you reviewed it you made the comment that I mislabelled the overall move and it really should be a AB=CD of which I agree. Question is, do you see any evidence of it continuing in this larger pattern or are your tools focused more on the medium term H4 & Daily charts.

Thanks again for sharing your analysis

+1 Reply
Hello, @DanLaffas - First, thank you for your vote of confidence. I very much appreciate your kind words.

Second, there are several ways to look at the chart. Each trader will look at it with a bias, based on pre-existing knowledge of patterns, projected trendlines, ... etc. So, at the end, a lot of speculations emerge to make any head spin.

Over the past months, I have offered several predictive/forecasting model-based analyses for well-defined targets, such as the following, where each targets were being hit one after the other, as well as a top-most target where I called a reversal:

snapshot


I also offered a longer timeframe view using standard trendlines, such as this following chart, in which a mixture of speculative targets are mixed with a standard technical analysis:

snapshot


Most recently, I offered a slim explanation of momental lines, illustrating in this following chart how they impact price's projected support and resistance. For instance, today price fell in a way that would appear too random were it not for this momental line support (recent green arrow):

snapshot


In terms of projected low, I also referred to Harry S. Dent's explanation that all bubbles return to their baseline growth trendline, using the following illustration, where the lowest possible trendline would be used by that author to define the lowest possible target:

snapshot



OVERALL: I am reviewing a lot of the themes that I have covered over the past weeks and months, mainly to explain that there are a lot of ways to look at chart. You are asking me about a larger AB=CD pattern, and whether it would complete within that weekly chart or whether my shorter timeframe models (M15, H4, Daily) are calling for something that could upset that weekly chart projection.

I am not sure how to best answer this, because my timeframes can still find validation without frustrating a weekly chart. In the case of a AB=CD pattern, especially one that involves a possible corrective move from an Elliott Wave price action, I am sure that DanV would be one to turn to, because these patterns are fractal, so the timeframe matters less than it would in my predictive/forecasting model.

Looking at that model at the weekly level, all I can say is that the trend has moved to the upside, but no bullish reversal confirmation has been generated at that timeframe level - In fact, in general rule, i do not look for such signal at that level, as I have done most of my research at the lower levels. If I did not know what timeframe that was, the weekly channel would be generating a premature, unconfirmed market reversal signal to the upside.

And this is the problem: The weekly (and daily as well), are the institutional levels one should consider IF the traded asset was a currency (i.e.: Forex), because liquid providers, banks and institutional players have a longer time interest, having ot move a whole lot more price-moving flux of money.

Crypto-currencies being so much more, well cryptic, they make it very difficult to forecast at levels any higher than H4 and perhaps daily levels.

I hope I have not put you to sleep here, by simply stating that weekly charts are not worth using in my forecasting model as far as Cryptos go (and may be this will change over time as the currency become more stable), but I would definitely look at EW patterns, as long as the crypto does submit itself to its rules. DanV would be one guy to ask about this compliance.

David
Reply
12 JUN 2014 - Update:

Twitter released:

"$BTCUSD: Possible technical scenarios: GREEN bulls; YELLOW consolidators; RED bears - https://www.tradingview.com/v/cTkSj9ez/#tc81344 via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"

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If you are a pure technician, then the expanded chart offers several possibilities, marked in colors.

Note that a multi-month trendline projects to validate today's support, so this bullish scenario remains probable, although it is supported by my own bias of being bullish for this crypto.

Other two scenarios are simply a consolidation or a further decline, both of which are less probable, but cannot never be excluded.

Please, refer to the linked article I provided above regarding FBI intervention, selling bitcoins into the market, thus pressuring the values DOWN. These bitcoins were presumable confiscated from illegable trades, thus reintroduced into the market (which exchange? Not sure).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
David, are you aware of the recent development of price divergence between stamp and other exchanges (namely, bitfinex)? Stamp hit a low of 550 whereas bitfinex went to just 575.2 :s What are your thoughts on this?
+1 Reply
@Jameve - I expect some cross-exchange elasticity, as would exist between close related currencies, such as major Forex pairs relative to the USD.
Reply
There seems to be considerable divergence between the exchanges now. (Bitfinex is 25usd more than bitstamp.) Your predictions are for bitstamp right?
+1 Reply
@matthew.ambrosia - Hi, Matt. Yes. I expect that if indeed the Bitstamp exchange is being dumped on (see FBI interference article above), then the distortion across exchanges will take place.

I have not charted Bitfinex yet, but if the distortion persists, it will be necessary to chart each exchange separately.

David
Reply
06 JUN 2014 Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD remains caught within forecast range after hitting target; favors decline -
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via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"

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As you can now tell, not only the top-most target remains valid by virtue of getting hit and persisting as a reversal point, but also the values that were predefined a while ago for that (pink) range, have too remained quite valid, as demonstrated by the candle's bodies remaining strictly restricted within that 630.78/667.80 range.

As price continues its insinuations like a writhing snake in a box, expect the downside to open up to the level that I defined a little while ago. So, until this temporary retracement completes, and as long as the retracement holds its lower ground, I do not foresee any other change in the analysis.

The overall outlook remains bullish, and the interim will probably see some retracement as anticipated - Consider the prior levels of resistance to act as probable levels of support, with the closest to current price retaining the highest probability of reversal, as pointed out by the arrow.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Kilgore 4xForecaster
Do you mean retracement to the $570 before another leg up? That would coincide with the idea of TheChasm that I saw today...
+1 Reply
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