Another target hit within hours of its release. Obviously, No water is putting out this fire.
However, as indicated at the release of this 676.67 target this morning, a reversal is probable underway (see technical commentary at the bottom of this thread here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/nIWHo655/).
At this point, and at the risk of sounding redundant to this morning's call, I expect the reversal to be measured at Fib-paces (i.e.: 38.2, 50, or 61.8), although I will wait for details of the model to ascertain a more assuring and precise support determination.
The outlook remains , with a neutral interim while a consolidation completes following the recent ramp-up.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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... Crypto Found Direction; Now Seeks Support:
As we managed to hit all targets on the way to this pan-ultimate forecast top, the quest now is not whether the crypto is in a bearish or bullish trend, but how far down should support be.
Some who know me for several years have read some of my lessons on hidden geometries and other cryptic oddities, such as nodular and nodal geometries for S/R definitions, as well as momental line and momental channel, and their impact in price projection.
In this particular case, I decided to look at what hidden geometry could impact on the definition of a support, since this is really the question at hand at this point. So, allow me to define a few concepts first, and then see how it may fit in this play.
A node and a nodule are simply "squares" or an amplitude in price whose center of gravity (i.e.: 0.50 point level) can sometimes projects into the future and impact price action in a way that remains quite remarkable ... When it works, that is. This discovery I made a while ago represented one of the steps that led me to focus solely on predictive analysis and forecasting.
What differentiate a node from a nodule is their relative heights in terms of Fibonacci, which is counted from the beginning of the impulse, don below where the uptrend started. If you measure from that point of origin to the top of that "rectangle", which is merely a temporary respite during price's ascension to higher highs, you will notice that it fails to measure the requisite 38.2% minimum of the move. Therefore, this makes this a MINOR geometric event in the chart, thus defining this as a nodule. Had it reached an amplitude of at least 38.2%, then it would have met the nodal characteristic.
The difference between the two is not minor, as a Node tends to impart a much greater supportive influence on price, as price retraces down to what can be measured as the gravitational point of that node (i.e.: its 50% level). But, in the case of a nodule, this imposition is not as strong, and therefore not as often demonstrable. In any case, I decided to share this discovery with you in here, not knowing ahead of time whether it will impart an supportive effect as price seeks to touch bottom against a 'springboard", as it clearly remains a bullish player.
So, in essence, target is geometrically defined per nodule as:
TG-1 - 569.62 - 04 JUN 14
Time will tell.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
( ... And occult market geometrist, or is that just too weird?)
"$BTCUSD remains caught within forecast range after hitting target; favors decline - via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"
As you can now tell, not only the top-most target remains valid by virtue of getting hit and persisting as a reversal point, but also the values that were predefined a while ago for that (pink) range, have too remained quite valid, as demonstrated by the candle's bodies remaining strictly restricted within that 630.78/667.80 range.
As price continues its insinuations like a writhing snake in a box, expect the downside to open up to the level that I defined a little while ago. So, until this temporary retracement completes, and as long as the retracement holds its lower ground, I do not foresee any other change in the analysis.
The overall outlook remains bullish, and the interim will probably see some retracement as anticipated - Consider the prior levels of resistance to act as probable levels of support, with the closest to current price retaining the highest probability of reversal, as pointed out by the arrow.
As far as the longer-term outlook, it still looks like it will continue to swim upriver after it sponds a few pip eggs at or near the current target.
If the river goes dry or the fish bellies up down river, I'll make sure to mention such a change in the directional bias, but for now, it remains fishy ... bullish that is.
I have not charted Bitfinex yet, but if the distortion persists, it will be necessary to chart each exchange separately.
"$BTCUSD: Possible technical scenarios: GREEN bulls; YELLOW consolidators; RED bears - https://www.tradingview.com/v/cTkSj9ez/#tc81344 via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin"
If you are a pure technician, then the expanded chart offers several possibilities, marked in colors.
Note that a multi-month trendline projects to validate today's support, so this bullish scenario remains probable, although it is supported by my own bias of being bullish for this crypto.
Other two scenarios are simply a consolidation or a further decline, both of which are less probable, but cannot never be excluded.
Please, refer to the linked article I provided above regarding FBI intervention, selling bitcoins into the market, thus pressuring the values DOWN. These bitcoins were presumable confiscated from illegable trades, thus reintroduced into the market (which exchange? Not sure).
Thanks again for sharing your analysis
Second, there are several ways to look at the chart. Each trader will look at it with a bias, based on pre-existing knowledge of patterns, projected trendlines, ... etc. So, at the end, a lot of speculations emerge to make any head spin.
Over the past months, I have offered several predictive/forecasting model-based analyses for well-defined targets, such as the following, where each targets were being hit one after the other, as well as a top-most target where I called a reversal:
I also offered a longer timeframe view using standard trendlines, such as this following chart, in which a mixture of speculative targets are mixed with a standard technical analysis:
Most recently, I offered a slim explanation of momental lines, illustrating in this following chart how they impact price's projected support and resistance. For instance, today price fell in a way that would appear too random were it not for this momental line support (recent green arrow):
In terms of projected low, I also referred to Harry S. Dent's explanation that all bubbles return to their baseline growth trendline, using the following illustration, where the lowest possible trendline would be used by that author to define the lowest possible target:
OVERALL: I am reviewing a lot of the themes that I have covered over the past weeks and months, mainly to explain that there are a lot of ways to look at chart. You are asking me about a larger AB=CD pattern, and whether it would complete within that weekly chart or whether my shorter timeframe models (M15, H4, Daily) are calling for something that could upset that weekly chart projection.
I am not sure how to best answer this, because my timeframes can still find validation without frustrating a weekly chart. In the case of a AB=CD pattern, especially one that involves a possible corrective move from an Elliott Wave price action, I am sure that DanV would be one to turn to, because these patterns are fractal, so the timeframe matters less than it would in my predictive/forecasting model.
Looking at that model at the weekly level, all I can say is that the trend has moved to the upside, but no bullish reversal confirmation has been generated at that timeframe level - In fact, in general rule, i do not look for such signal at that level, as I have done most of my research at the lower levels. If I did not know what timeframe that was, the weekly channel would be generating a premature, unconfirmed market reversal signal to the upside.
And this is the problem: The weekly (and daily as well), are the institutional levels one should consider IF the traded asset was a currency (i.e.: Forex), because liquid providers, banks and institutional players have a longer time interest, having ot move a whole lot more price-moving flux of money.
Crypto-currencies being so much more, well cryptic, they make it very difficult to forecast at levels any higher than H4 and perhaps daily levels.
I hope I have not put you to sleep here, by simply stating that weekly charts are not worth using in my forecasting model as far as Cryptos go (and may be this will change over time as the currency become more stable), but I would definitely look at EW patterns, as long as the crypto does submit itself to its rules. DanV would be one guy to ask about this compliance.
"$BTCUSD Target Hit: Recent FBI interference may distort #bitcoin further - @tradingview | #litecoin $BTC $LTC #Forex"
As per forecast, target got hit. I would have expected a "dead-on" hit, where the tip of the candle validates the target, but in this case, a separate phenomenon occurred, whereby the close/open edges of two separate candles occurred right at the target. This may or may not be the result of a market distortion, considering the recent FBI news, which informed the public of its sell of bitcoin into the market, thus forcing a brisk and wide price action to the downside.
If you review my recent notes from a few hours ago, you may also notice that this chaos was quite not so chaotic, as it came to validate a momental line I had defined several weeks ago, as per the following chart:
As separate set of trendlines also exist here, using the standard price highs and lows:
Regardless of the methodology that stomped falling price today, the market for bitcoin remains bullish, unless an overwhelming distortion occurs through the helping hands of institutional forces (banks or government). In which case, it might become more difficult to offer a safe and sound forecast.
For now, price is acting as per forecast, and the outlook remains bullish.