It is becoming more apparent than ever before that the crypto-currency has mounted a resistance to infectious nay-saying and other virulent dissemination of damning news.
What has happened instead is a quieting of its price moves. While institutional news releases from both sides of the bull/bear fence had emerged on a higher frequency weeks ago, it seems that there is really no more bears or bulls to convince that an imminent collapse is imminent - Instead, price action has now followed a narrowing path reminiscent of a basic market geometry, in which a pattern trader might see either a , and an advanced trader might also see a potential , both of which portend a outcome. As an observer of this market geometric development, a glance at my predictive/forecasting model remains , despite a resistance warning at 452.67, and a tolerant decline to 373.59 without having to negate its outlook.
The market is ripe with geometries, some more occult than others, but considering a basic price action where price narrows its progressive decline around a declining mean, is likely to appeal to a pattern trader who would probably see a declining pattern (see solid red lines in the chart).
For a more trader, the visual cortex might crackle a bit louder and conjure up the nascent outlines of a pattern ("WW"), whose complex defining 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points give rise to 5-prime and 5-second, or 5' and 5", respectively. As you might already know, a 5' is born out of the 2-4 line projecting off of Point-3, while 5" would project off of Point-1. In my experience, 5-primes are more common than a mere Point-5 reaction (point-5 is lined up with points 1 and 3 to define the 1-5 line), whereas 5-second is merely a much rarer geometric event.
For the enthusiast, the 5-prime could be considered as the Point-E throw-over/down of a triangle, although I would rather let the EW expert speak with greater eloquence and depth than I can demonstrate on this subject.
You will see in this new chart that I have removed most of the channels and arrows (original here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/NI9c1s49/), but the lines remain intact and in force, with the following addition:
Level 429.60 is emerging as a critical level whereby its transgression to the downside would open the floor to our predefined 398.00 and 373.59 levels. While the first carries a higher probability of getting hit (if and once the conditional 429.60 level of broken), a cloud of support exists within the 384.35/363.53, with the strongest value being defined at this 373.59 level.
Therefore, I suggest that the trader keeps an eye open to the conditional 429.60 level, and does NOT neessarily believe in the news release that may be hurled at his hesitant spirit, as this will probably be the necessary mechanism that might successfully push price to these CONTROLLED depths.
Overhead R/S lines too are intact and remain in force, but at this point, they seem to await a different narrative at a different chapter.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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Just wanted to clarify that Point 4 is in parentheses to suggest a pending completion of that point. Lower down, Point-5 is faded also to suggest a probable price action pathway destination point. So, in all, the underlying pattern is a mere speculative projection until Point-4 is complete.
Completion of Point-4 would require meeting the conditions defined in the original analysis, namely transgression of the 429.60 level, and continuation towards the 1-3-5 Line.
Twitter feed just now:
"$BTCUSD achieved escape velocity; look for re-entry opp along TL - via @tradingview $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin"
In essence, BTCUSD maintained its forecast direction, and remained above the conditional line. Therefore, a temporary decline did not occur, which means that a chance for an entry at discount for the bitcoin trader did not materialize.
Nonetheless, the bullish forecast remains in force, and the lines and zones defined from the recent forecasts remain well in place and in force.
I'm new to this analysis - been waiting patiently with my pot of fiat since the 430 level. Seems like i've missed the boat? - or are you saying we will see a move back to the low 400's?
Seems like what happened today was very much what happened in early march.. btc fired the rocket at the moon at went from 560 to 700 during the day.. what happened later was a low retractement to the 500 level and soon thereafter the crash to 340 in April.
Just wondering if i should see how this plays out or would you recommend me sitting tight and waiting for further support at this level?
Thanks in advance, Troels from Denmark.
Let's be as objective as possible and form a few assumptions, make some observations, and attempt to decipher what this all means ... Sort of a basic scientific approach to the chart, if I may.
First, let's assume that we did not know what this chart would be graphing about, and thus remove all biases as much as possible. Second, let's assume that we only had price and volume, as indicated in the chart. And finally, third, let's also assume that we were receiving this picture as a static object, so that there was no way to plug it back into some basic charting system. In fact, let's go even further and let's assume that w did not even know what timeframe this would correspond to.
Now, here is what I would observe:
1 - Price is in a major downward impulse;
2 - Price has carved out 1, 2, ... 3 lower lows (the first two are to the left of the first decline, narrow to one another, and the third one is the last one;
3 - The slant of each decline is softening (as indicated visually by your overlaid colored rectangles, from yellow to blue to red to green)
4 - The most recent price high (transitioned from blue to red) failed to carve out a higher higher/structure high (a new structure high would have been carved out if price had broken above the top part of the blue rectangle price action);
5 - ... But yet, price has remained at about 50% of the height achieved as price rose from the blue to the red rectangle.
So, this is my step-wide visual survey of the price action.
Now, off to the volume action:
1 - Volume has surged for the first time within this chart at the level of the first structure low (that is, to the left of the chart, the third impulse low was accompanied by a sharp volume increase
2 - A lesser volume peak occurred at the second volume low
3 - Ever since these two volume peaks, volume has tapered down, except for a small "bump/hill" that defined the time when the very last low was defined in price.
Now, off to price/volume observation:
1 - Each volume spike has been accompanied by a bullish pinbar. That is, the body of the candle has remains above the price range, leaving a significant shadow/wick below the candle. Even in the case of a red-bodied candle (seen in the first volume spike), there has been a significant influx of activity this has left price move back UP as a net market activity.
2 - A similar net-UP candle (doji, as far as I can tell) has absorbed all of the market forces to close a candle in its bullish-most morphology.
3 - In the case of the third "bump" in price, that candle too failed to close below the prior candle, and instead closed above half of its predecessor.
WHAT THIS ALL MEANS:
Indeed, the price action is predominantly bearish. In my own analysis and forecasting, I typically provide several observations whenever I can. Typically, I like to offer objective observation that may appeal to pattern traders, then refer to some Fibonacci levels for this other breed of traders that like this numbers, then I finally move into my predictive/forecasting model interpretation, and finally, I like to add my own intuitive comment, independent of the predictive model, which sometimes ay prove contrarian, even though the model is the plan to trade, and I end up trading the plan.
However, in this exercise, I have demonstrated to you how I would use price, volume and candle, if I had only that much to deal with, which is that we said we'd do in the assumptions. So, I am only sharing what I would intuitively be seeing and interpreting.
So, what I derive from all of the price/volume/candle action is that the ranges where price reached a certain lower level triggered a barrage of bullish response, causing the candles to end up at the upper portion of their range. This is a very important piece of information, because the market is informing me that at these levels, bears pulling price down are stomped and pushed back into higher levels than where they had started.
Another meaning here is that bears have attempted to absorb all possible bulls three times (if you only count the three lowest lows), and at each time, they have been pushed back to higher levels than started, or at least closing at significantly higher levels than the range of the candle.
An additional observation is that it took less volume to create a same push back, suggesting that the net bear + bull effect on price would weaken over time, and yet would successfully keep price at significantly higher levels. One may see a lesser market participation, but I would instead see that players have taken their positions and a lesser number of influx is reflected in lower volumes. Still, the price remains buoyant.
Finally, the last price action (most recent) has demonstrated a near-mechanical sustenance of price above the 50% of its recent rally(i.e.: at the level where the lower border of the red rectangle sustained price.
If you look at the model-based/intuitive price action projection I have in the following chart, I agree with you that some decline may be in order here, but I would see this event to be limited in time and scope.
What your chart demonstrates is a fanning of price action along softer slopes, and a recent quieting of price action is terms of range achieved per candle, while the volume is also narrowing down.
This pattern is often seen in geometries, such as wedges, where a progressive narrowing of price action can be accompanied by a decline in volume over the development span of the geometry.
While a decline into the green rectangle you have drawn is possible, I would look for a failure in price action to carve out lower lows, followed by a new relative higher higher (i.e.: relative to the high achieved at the top of the red rectangle).
While any scenario is possible, and forecasting can never be a 100% probability game, there is always a behavior worth observing out of each traded asset in term of how its price behaves. To the extent that markets are not democratic, but more based on interposed "representatives" which we call market makers/liquid providers/institutional traders (who remain aware of the total stop-losses, entries and limit orders of the market), there is always the fact that you will be kept at a disadvantage. So, best is to look at "the foot prints in the snow", which leaves clues as to who does what, where and when:
Volume spikes, net candle morphology at volume spikes, and relative position of price ranges from other candles is one fair weapon I would make sure to know to handle now and in the future, whenever you may not have recourse to charting services.
One service I really like is called "Volume-Spread Analysis", which is based on Mr. Wickoff's methodology, but runs much deeper than mere observations.
Another one is an Australian trader called Nial Fuller who has extensive courses on pinbar and price action-based trading.
And finally, there is you. The one trader that exists tomorrow, based on the countless number of charts you may have and will regurgitate over and over and over again.
I have the luxury of having a job that allows me to chart about 18-20 hrs a day for about 18-24 days per month, and I have done this since 1997. So, the most critical component about trading is not the course you'll get, the lesson you'll learn, but the amount of "facetime" that will shape your intuitive learning and cause you to develop a "third eye".
The "third eye" is what tells you what price is doing when you are not even done looking at a chart.
I hope this wordiness helps, though.
Thanks for your thoughts - seems like you agree that there may be some price deflation going on before we break the 500 or 600's. To me, going parabolic at this stage is just too early. In my mind, bigger investors are pumping the price up because they KNOW people want it to go up but are too afraid of any new china news/rumours that would break the price. So, larger investors pump the price up, people tag along, new china rumour, price crashes back down.
While the expectation of a temporary decline did not pan out, market is expressing a net bullish force that could has become harder to keep down.
Again, this has to be heeded as an undeniable bullish force underneath this asset.
The forecast levels are as follows:
1 - 494.07 = Here, I have expected some unwinding to the downside, as the arrows indicated. Instead, price consolidated for 8 x 4-hour-candles (32 hours) tightly around that forecast target, then moved to the next level: 541.00.
2 - 541.00 = Price barely touched that forecast level at this point, and it has since retrenched a little. I expect price to validate that forecast level, but as in the case of the prior lower level, where some unwinding to the downside did not occur, a walk-through is probable. A higher probability remains a significant resistance/support validation of either the prior 494.07, or less probably the elusive 429.60 level.
3 - The range over head remains intact and in force as well. It is bound by the 630.78 below and 667.80 above. It is expected to impose a more significant Fib-measured reversal. However, here too, it all depends on the behavior of this crypto-currency.
I recommend the trader to draw a vertical line that separates the pre-bull and the post-bear era, passing through the lowest recently attained. I say this without some hesitancy, but we are likely to see a different behavior on the upside than on the downside, reflecting a reversal fundamental perception of the market towards bitcoin. Whether this is true or not does not really matter in my predictive/forecasting model, but it should matter for the resilient bears seeking to enter at discount levels.
It appears that the discount levels are becoming thinning opportunities, as demonstrated by the most recent price action, where higher-levels are carved out, and a counter-trend move appears to be underway.
Once the chart indicates a price action too indifferent to above levels, this should warrant a "wash, rinse, repeat" analysis. Moreover, it would certainly indicate that this pre-bull, post bear behavioral change did indeed occur.
* * * PS: As of this writing, time did take the time to validate the 541.00 level. So, let's sit, watch and pass the pop corn, please * * *
- David Alcindor
To me this has looked massively overbought since the very first bar of the run...and every overbought sign has been followed by further buy ins.
I'm cautiously trying to determine a point to sell for a retracement but have a strong sense that it will not happen at an obvious time...I think today's 451 is as yesterday's 426...I think its going to go through it :-/
Let me give you some concrete examples off of the chart you are presenting (by the way, there is a small icon at the top-right of this and any other frame in which you write that will allow you to cut/paste the URL of the chart, so that it can be posted as follows (hoping this works):
If you look at the early part of December 2013 (and here, it seems to show only one small part of it), price was way "overbought", yet it signaled a continuation of that status again and again, to the point of creating its historical height.
Next, there is a "oversold" indication between March and April of this year (starting at about April 18th), and yet again, it signaled a continuation rather than a reversal. In fact, it went on to carve out the lowest low for the year.
In both instances, had the trader relied on the so-called "overbought" or "oversold" statues of the price action, it would have caused much losses.
I recommend that traders seek non-price indicators, that is start to trade outside of the price field, and instead turn to 1, 2 or three separate indicators, the interaction of which causing a sell/buy signals, based on a careful visual survey of the corresponding price action, over several timeframes, over a long-enough time period.
This would in fact turn the trading into a quantitative analyst, utilizing values that are off of the chart, and defining a set of conditions that is consistently associated with a particular price action.
What is most important in my trading is not whether a price is reaching this or that level, or whether it has triggered a oversold/overbought status, but whether it will turn and aim for a specific level.
Defining the trend, the reversal and the target become more enjoyable trading means than detecting what everybody is inculcated to believe about what price is.
I hope this answers your question in some ways.
One way to trade the behaviors of this chart is to observe that new historical highs and lows for instance are associated with significant volume spikes.
If you notice that the volume spikes tend to behave as if they "stomped" price and caused it to reverse, then you might be able to reasonable develop a strategy around this.
For instance, it appears that all declines that are associated with new significant lows, are matched with volume spikes, and the candle itself tends to retrace the height of the prior candle.
What's more, the volume spike seems to be associated with not 1 or 2, but instead 3 candles. The third candle is the most important one, as it behaves in a way that projects from the height of the first candle.
While this may be somewhat price-based, see how I was able to look at a non-price event, then related it to price behavior, and develop a very simple observation that may then be used as a simple trading strategy - Of course, this would have to be verified over multiple instances in this and other timeframes, but my point is that trading based on non-price events may help you look at the market a bit differently - All you need is an edge, ... and a third eye, a mind's eye, so to speak.
The way i would use the Keltner chart is as a rough indicator on the price movement - not as the only source of evidence for my trading. I see it as a confirming indicator wether or not the entry point is reasonable. Typically, if the chart states it is oversold (as you remarked) and continues to fall, it means that the chart does not state where the momentum is going. Therefore, the keltner channel can signal an oversold situation while the momentum carries price further down. The chart show this problem in the bull market of november - indicating overbought situation, but price keeps going upwards.
Therefore, i agree completely that the Keltner channel chart can not be used solely when trading, but must be used together with a momentum-indicator (RSI?) and a third one.. perhaps money flow indicator.
Anyways, have a great weekend and thanks for commenting.
Twitter feed just released:
"$BTCUSD: Price follows forecast path so far; Still bullish outlook - @tradingview $BYC $USD $LTC #bitcoin #litecoin"
Looks like so far, price has moved in the was of the forecast (the blue arrow defines more probable pathway; the grey defines a past price action or less probable pathway).
In fact, if you are into Elliott Wave count, ("EW"), one might potentially see that the hit target occurred at the completion of a Wave-4, and that the current down-then-up course may represent the initial a-b waves of the expected a-b-c pattern which can sometimes define the corrective Wave-4.
If this EW count is correct, this add further credence to a wave-5 completion to higher level. But then again, I would ask the most EW educated person on the site for a confirmation (e.g.: "DanV" - He is the one I would ask for sure).
Looking at the predictive/forecasting model, the directional bias remains bullish and the targets remain in sight and in force.
In terms of R/S outlook, 494.07 is still acting as a reliable supportive base in case of a significant decline from current levels. A further decline to 429.60 remains a possibility, albeit a distant one.
The overhead 541.00 will probably act as a significant resistance once again, requiring significant absorptive activity (i.e.; look for significant volume spike at its approach), although a phenomenal news release would likely outplay this resistance level, a simple geometry might allow price to worm its way through, turning it into a propulsive base for additional rallying when it prepares to rise towards that pink cloud (that's be the best case scenario).
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
From Twitter feed:
"$BTCUSD: Revengeful bulls chomp forward; Stampede towards next resistance - @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin $USD #forex"
Bulls are advancing with no interest in deeper retracement than what just occurred - The blue arrows offered the high-probable pathway, but bulls are marching on at a much faster, less probable pace, towards the next overhead resistance range.
If the price action remains as sustained as this, expect either a deep retracement once the range ("pink zone") is reached, or a sustained consolidation at that level.