#Bitcoin Consolidation: Recoiling Before Springing? | $BTC #LTC
Friends,
It is becoming more apparent than ever before that the crypto-currency has mounted a resistance to infectious nay-saying and other virulent dissemination of damning news.
What has happened instead is a quieting of its price moves. While institutional news releases from both sides of the bull/bear fence had emerged on a higher frequency weeks ago, it seems that there is really no more bears or bulls to convince that an imminent collapse is imminent - Instead, price action has now followed a narrowing path reminiscent of a basic market geometry, in which a pattern trader might see either a falling wedge, and an advanced trader might also see a potential Wolfe Waves, both of which portend a bullish outcome. As an observer of this market geometric development, a glance at my predictive/forecasting model remains bullish, despite a resistance warning at 452.67, and a tolerant decline to 373.59 without having to negate its bullish outlook.
MARKET GEOMETRIES:
The market is ripe with geometries, some more occult than others, but considering a basic price action where price narrows its progressive decline around a declining mean, is likely to appeal to a pattern trader who would probably see a declining wedge pattern (see solid red lines in the chart).
For a more advanced pattern trader, the visual cortex might crackle a bit louder and conjure up the nascent outlines of a bullish Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), whose complex defining 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points give rise to 5-prime and 5-second, or 5' and 5", respectively. As you might already know, a 5' is born out of the 2-4 line projecting off of Point-3, while 5" would project off of Point-1. In my experience, 5-primes are more common than a mere Point-5 reaction (point-5 is lined up with points 1 and 3 to define the 1-5 line), whereas 5-second is merely a much rarer geometric event.
For the Elliott Wave enthusiast, the 5-prime could be considered as the Point-E throw-over/down of a triangle, although I would rather let the EW expert speak with greater eloquence and depth than I can demonstrate on this subject.
S/R LINES:
You will see in this new chart that I have removed most of the channels and arrows (original here: www.tradingview.com/v/NI9c1s49/), but the support/resistance lines remain intact and in force, with the following addition:
Level 429.60 is emerging as a critical level whereby its transgression to the downside would open the floor to our predefined 398.00 and 373.59 levels. While the first carries a higher probability of getting hit (if and once the conditional 429.60 level of broken), a cloud of support exists within the 384.35/363.53, with the strongest value being defined at this 373.59 level.
Therefore, I suggest that the trader keeps an eye open to the conditional 429.60 level, and does NOT neessarily believe in the bearish news release that may be hurled at his hesitant spirit, as this will probably be the necessary mechanism that might successfully push price to these CONTROLLED depths.
Overhead R/S lines too are intact and remain in force, but at this point, they seem to await a different narrative at a different chapter.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator
All directional statements are opinion - Do your own diligence.
------------------------------------
Get instant Bitcoin and Forex signals, forecasts and analyses from my Tweets.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------
It is becoming more apparent than ever before that the crypto-currency has mounted a resistance to infectious nay-saying and other virulent dissemination of damning news.
What has happened instead is a quieting of its price moves. While institutional news releases from both sides of the bull/bear fence had emerged on a higher frequency weeks ago, it seems that there is really no more bears or bulls to convince that an imminent collapse is imminent - Instead, price action has now followed a narrowing path reminiscent of a basic market geometry, in which a pattern trader might see either a falling wedge, and an advanced trader might also see a potential Wolfe Waves, both of which portend a bullish outcome. As an observer of this market geometric development, a glance at my predictive/forecasting model remains bullish, despite a resistance warning at 452.67, and a tolerant decline to 373.59 without having to negate its bullish outlook.
MARKET GEOMETRIES:
The market is ripe with geometries, some more occult than others, but considering a basic price action where price narrows its progressive decline around a declining mean, is likely to appeal to a pattern trader who would probably see a declining wedge pattern (see solid red lines in the chart).
For a more advanced pattern trader, the visual cortex might crackle a bit louder and conjure up the nascent outlines of a bullish Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"), whose complex defining 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points give rise to 5-prime and 5-second, or 5' and 5", respectively. As you might already know, a 5' is born out of the 2-4 line projecting off of Point-3, while 5" would project off of Point-1. In my experience, 5-primes are more common than a mere Point-5 reaction (point-5 is lined up with points 1 and 3 to define the 1-5 line), whereas 5-second is merely a much rarer geometric event.
For the Elliott Wave enthusiast, the 5-prime could be considered as the Point-E throw-over/down of a triangle, although I would rather let the EW expert speak with greater eloquence and depth than I can demonstrate on this subject.
S/R LINES:
You will see in this new chart that I have removed most of the channels and arrows (original here: www.tradingview.com/v/NI9c1s49/), but the support/resistance lines remain intact and in force, with the following addition:
Level 429.60 is emerging as a critical level whereby its transgression to the downside would open the floor to our predefined 398.00 and 373.59 levels. While the first carries a higher probability of getting hit (if and once the conditional 429.60 level of broken), a cloud of support exists within the 384.35/363.53, with the strongest value being defined at this 373.59 level.
Therefore, I suggest that the trader keeps an eye open to the conditional 429.60 level, and does NOT neessarily believe in the bearish news release that may be hurled at his hesitant spirit, as this will probably be the necessary mechanism that might successfully push price to these CONTROLLED depths.
Overhead R/S lines too are intact and remain in force, but at this point, they seem to await a different narrative at a different chapter.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator
All directional statements are opinion - Do your own diligence.
------------------------------------
Get instant Bitcoin and Forex signals, forecasts and analyses from my Tweets.
- Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------
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