Following a protracted descent along the momental line, this BTCUSD finally tip-toed on my technical target @ 438.97, when I defined the target at the bottom of commentary threat, stating on 18 APR 22014:
"Hence, 438.97 comes as a relevant support, a garrison line for bulls to prepare for a potential uphill move. And uphill that will be, if there ever was one".
- See chart and technical commentaries: "Hello Houston. Do You Copy?",
The title implied an optimistic bias at the time, considering the complex technical pictures and conditions described in the commentaries. So, it should come as no surprise if I defended that bias at this point.
However, there are 2 cautionary scenarios worth putting on the table before any such bias can be confirmed (or infirmed).
First, so far, price has held itself at quite a distance ever since the forecast target was hit on a dime. This should keep the visual trader at ease, because the appearance of price action has left little doubt so far that this target zone was well defended, and may promise to remain so ... For the time being.
Here are two directional scenarios to which I would give equal weight during this period of consolidation:
1 - SCENARIO: Here, look for price to remain its the 441.80/445.09 defensive/supportive range. In fact, a break below/close below event should concern bulls, whereas a structural break below the 438.97 should be construed as a valid outlook.
2 - SCENARIO: In the case of a continued ascent, price would have to drill through several reinforced levels, and this only after it peeled itself off of the momental line that drove price to its forecast target. I have seen many technical discussions on the board, but few - if any - seem to be cognizant of the fact that hidden (occult) geometries remain in force herein, yet momental lines are not at all foreign to the powerful effect it can carry on price, as it was just proven. I could spend a significant amount of time ranting about patterns-as-carrots, but let's simply stay on the simple task at hand.
Now, once that momental influence is resolved, my prop system has defined 480.80 and 490.64 are like overhead resistance levels. Considering the current location of price at the time of this writing (price @ 457. 44 at 0722am in Denver, Colorado), it would require a steep incline for the highest target to be hit, corresponding to the softer limit of the channel. And the channel is indeed the real impediment in this technical picture.
In fact, once price did hit the former target @ 541.00, this occurred incidentally along the momental lines of the channel. At the time, I used 438.97 as the lower for an eventual rallying back into the underbelly of that upper channel border, in a wave form (dashed blue arrows) that approximated the potential ensuing price action. Now that the supportive target at 438.97 got hit, I would prepare for a to form, if and when price attempted a assault against entrenched bears in the hills overhead, as this is indeed, as defined above and before, going to be an uphill battle, if there ever was an uphill march.
The conditions that define a "attentat" are many and dire. The period of consolidation allows institutional traders, market makers and other liquid providers to take positions. In such case, flings to the downside should be limited by surges, whereas testing of the bears are often represented by larger price moves despite little to no . Given the conditions above, and the current position of price relative to the recent support, more overhead space is left to move in favor of bulls, and inversely, a third less space is left for these same bulls to maintain a 2:1 upside risk ratio. So, not a bad place to hang if you are .
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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As of today, I will post all technical notes on the following chart's link. I will stop posting notes on this one, as its thread has become too deep and the chart has lost its relevance at this bullish juncture.
Link to new chart:
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Twitter feed just now:
"$BTCUSD achieved escape velocity; look for re-entry opp along TL - via @tradingview $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin"
In essence, BTCUSD maintained its forecast direction, and remained above the conditional line. Therefore, a temporary decline did not occur, which means that a chance for an entry at discount for the bitcoin trader did not materialize.
Nonetheless, the bullish forecast remains in force, and the lines and zones defined from the recent forecasts remain well in place and in force.
452.7/452.00 seems to impose a real battle ground for bulls, as entrenched bears have been able to defend that ground right after price escalated across a series of trendline resistance levels. At some point, bulls may have to regain some momentum, and this would be accomplished by a slight pull-back into the support levels defined in the chart - However, this opinion is generated independent of my predictive model, where parameters remain bullish, but time is not factored in.
If indeed you believe, as the model seems to interpret, that the outlook favors a bullish outcome, remember that institutional traders can swing their swords in two directions: Up/down and right/left. In a swift up/down direction, retail stop-losses are hit and the institutional trader literally takes himself into a lower, cheaper bullish position.
In contrast, in a not-so-swift right/left move, stronger retail hands are cut off by virtue of the retail trader's own perception of time wasted "not trading", thus eventually giving up on his position. Because the retail traders are by nature more likely to trade on a much smaller time frame, they are also more likely to give up their positions when a price seems to "go nowhere", which is really an erroneous notion.
First, already holding a position and doing nothing about it when your fundamental/technical outlook remains intact IS trading - If it takes too long, them perhaps you misjudge and need to recalibrate your time horizon, or simply turn to another asset. Truth is, it may not be trading at a rate that you need at the moment, but you are still holding a position, and as long as the factors that caused you to generate that position are still in place, then there is little to no reason to change - Is there?.If you need to trade faster, I suggest that you mix your trading style between assets that move differently over time - In its first chapter on "Volatily", Bitcoin has taught a lot of traders that it could move across fantastic heights within the narrowest spans of time. Now that the same students remains sitting in Bitcoin's same auditorium are perusing through the next chapter: "Time", it will likely cause some to stand up and leave the auditorium - It's the same Bitcoin, the same environment, but simply a much slower part of the lesson.
Second, institutional traders receive large orders from investors that have much longer horizon lines in their interest to gain from an asset. While the institutional traders might be able to generate quick arbitraged earnings, they are the ones through whom orders pass to acquire or dump assets. Make no mistake: This processing is NOT erratic, random or chaotic. Instead, it is very much a controlled process, which defines the very nature of their role: Makers of a market (MMs) and liquid providers (LPs). Plus, traders such as myself could not possibly generate predictive and forecasting models if we did not have a data whose measurable behavior allows for the interpretation of price direction and the projection of support, resistance and reversal levels, as I have been able to demonstrate in Forex, indices and stocks.
The most valuable lessons in trading are not at the computer screen, gazing into lines and patterns. Some are at the local park watciing children play, some are at the patient's side, and others are at the nursing homes. While you take a trading position that may demand a day or two, or perhaps a week or two, and the conditioned that fashioned your mind to take that position are still there, then take a moment and walk to that park, volunteer at that emergency department, or visit a nursing homes - Trading lessons are not taught by price or charts, except the painful ones.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Model says it's coming to a head, so watch out. Very to no bear per data, but it has turned its coat many times before - Trader beware!