4xForecaster

Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
7768 92 27
Friends,

Following a protracted descent along the bearish momental line, this BTCUSD             finally tip-toed on my technical target @ 438.97, when I defined the target at the bottom of commentary threat, stating on 18 APR 22014:

"Hence, 438.97 comes as a relevant support, a garrison line for bulls to prepare for a potential uphill move. And uphill that will be, if there ever was one".
- See chart and technical commentaries: "Hello Houston. Do You Copy?",
Hello, Houston. Do You Copy? | $BTC $USD #bitcoin $Gold #forex


The title implied an optimistic bias at the time, considering the complex technical pictures and conditions described in the commentaries. So, it should come as no surprise if I defended that bullish bias at this point.

However, there are 2 cautionary scenarios worth             putting on the table before any such bias can be confirmed (or infirmed).

First, so far, price has held itself at quite a distance ever since the forecast target was hit on a dime. This should keep the visual trader at ease, because the appearance of price action has left little doubt so far that this target zone was well defended, and may promise to remain so ... For the time being.

Here are two directional scenarios to which I would give equal weight during this period of consolidation:

1 - BEARISH SCENARIO: Here, look for price to remain its the 441.80/445.09 defensive/supportive range. In fact, a break below/close below event should concern bulls, whereas a structural break below the 438.97 should be construed as a valid bearish outlook.

2 - BULLISH SCENARIO: In the case of a continued bullish ascent, price would have to drill through several reinforced levels, and this only after it peeled itself off of the momental line that drove price to its forecast target. I have seen many technical discussions on the board, but few - if any - seem to be cognizant of the fact that hidden (occult) geometries remain in force herein, yet momental lines are not at all foreign to the powerful effect it can carry on price, as it was just proven. I could spend a significant amount of time ranting about patterns-as-carrots, but let's simply stay on the simple task at hand.

Now, once that momental influence is resolved, my prop system has defined 480.80 and 490.64 are like overhead resistance levels. Considering the current location of price at the time of this writing (price @ 457. 44             at 0722am in Denver, Colorado), it would require a steep incline for the highest target to be hit, corresponding to the softer limit of the channel. And the channel is indeed the real impediment in this technical picture.

In fact, once price did hit the former target @ 541.00, this occurred incidentally along the momental lines of the channel. At the time, I used 438.97 as the lower support level for an eventual rallying back into the underbelly of that upper channel border, in a wave form (dashed blue arrows) that approximated the potential ensuing price action. Now that the supportive target at 438.97 got hit, I would prepare for a descending triangle to form, if and when price attempted a bullish assault against entrenched bears in the hills overhead, as this is indeed, as defined above and before, going to be an uphill battle, if there ever was an uphill march.


OVERALL:

The conditions that define a bullish "attentat" are many and dire. The period of consolidation allows institutional traders, market makers and other liquid providers to take positions. In such case, flings to the downside should be limited by volume surges, whereas testing of the bears are often represented by larger price moves despite little to no volume . Given the conditions above, and the current position of price relative to the recent support, more overhead space is left to move in favor of bulls, and inversely, a third less space is left for these same bulls to maintain a 2:1 upside risk ratio. So, not a bad place to hang if you are bullish .

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
not possible
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abolys abolys
No fundamental signs for recovery. Growth will begin with the strong news.
+1 Reply
Hello @abolys. I can't say I disagree here, but when price was way above the 600/800 levels, I had already called an abysmal target and received all possible arguments (some insults as well) against it. But it did move there, and even lower as forecast.

My position has been, and remains purely based on a prop system that has offered firm data and consistent results. However, as with anything else, there are plenty of room for errors. What I keep in mind are several things:

1 - A professional trader from whom I received lessons used to work behind closed doors, moving markets by releasing fundamental news that would be contrary to the masses' general opinion. This is done also by other trading services that simply dump millions of dollars simply to trigger stop-losses at calculated levels, causing a squeeze, and allowing either firms to load up on the back of weak hands - I invite you to review this simple video that reveals how easy and prominent that trick is:

a - Article: "How The Big Players Manipulate The Stock Market"
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDwQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Finstablog%2F2918951-g-hudson%2F1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market&ei=KRRdU4mSGKTuyQGm0IH4Bw&usg=AFQjCNHxI4zYUe4CLFCky5AALhakuk6_8w&sig2=S56mlbHgy7GrsAVnGikGig&bvm=bv.65397613,d.aWc

b - VIDEO: Jim Cramer Admits TO Manipulating The Market On Live Interview:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDQQuAIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DgMShFx5rThI&ei=KRRdU4mSGKTuyQGm0IH4Bw&usg=AFQjCNG4GfEWz_WF0CENuWiaKARTavwzHQ&sig2=PywB2Rs53L44qsDxa4jSWw&bvm=bv.65397613,d.aWc

Also, remember that markets do not move in the intended direction at the news release, but tend to fake the expected direction in tune with the news, then shortly reverses course. This has led to the old adage of buying on rumors and selling on news. Unfortunately, rumors do not circulate at the retail-trader level, but do at the institutional level, which then fabricate what they need you to hear - Hence the Cramer-style tactics above, that are so abundant across ANY market. Yes, Bitcoin has no reason to escape that as well.

Finally, if you are a technical analyst/chartist, you might possibly adhere to the premise that all price actions are discounted in the price. This is a securing mindset in which to trader, because it has proven true consistently enough as to allow persons such as myself to rely quite heavily on this notion, to the point of focusing purely on predictive and forecasting activities.

Predictions and forecast could not rest on speculative thinking, even by the slightest measure. Instead, they are based on firm and immutable data process through either price, volume or some other indicators (my approach has remains blind to price itself, using a layering of quantitative data outside of the price field, then turning a value that I can appose within the price field, in order to trade in that direction within defined cautionary lines). In any case, technical analysis offers the trader a filter that leaves fake news out, if and only if he agrees that price is moved in general by all-knowing institutional traders who have the ability to paint the beginning of a pattern, create false gaps, or manipulate price to the extreme known to trigger psychological harm against week hands, all the while keep indicators, such as mine, intact and still revealing of the true directional intent (this is true in most charts, and of course, exceptions abound).

For these reasons above, I will admit that you could be right, and so could the market. My goal as a trader is not to outsmart the market, but to remain with the market. In the case of Bitcoin, I can already hear that this market is either too illiquid, or too manipulated, or what not, but the prior forecasts I have offered occurred under such dire conditions (closure of BTC exchanges, China closing accounts dealing in BTC, ... etc). So, I remain healthily pessimistic that all sides want to be right, but the real profitable side is the one which I read off of the chart.

When a consolidation occurs, I let the market exhale its CO2 it had to accumulate after a forceful move, and once it gives my a directional hint, then I pass it through scrutiny, then stick my neck out to you and fellow traders here in TradingView, hoping that you gain from it, if not in fiduciary ways, at least in lessons learned - hopefully - from correct forecasts, but also from mistakes that remain part of the natural order of things.

David Alcindor
+6 Reply
onefix 4xForecaster
Very much appreciate your insightful, in depth analysis. I love reading yours and other traders views on TradingView. Head and shoulders above other sites.....Amazing.... Thankyou very much
+1 Reply
sraosha PRO 4xForecaster
Wow, learning so much here once again. People like you are the true salt of the internet. Enjoy your really high quality articles. The mix of 'hard' facts/curves/TA with an almost metaphysical larger viewpoint encompassing the collected facts is rare.
+2 Reply
It's all good, right? I mean, any question you might have on the technical side of things?
- David Alcindor, MOD
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sraosha PRO 4xForecaster
Haha, at the moment I am in the rare mood of not being skeptical about anything. Will definitely get back with questions though another time. Just wanted to let you know that I found something in your posts that is beyond 'mere trading' or TA; the beauty in patterns and curves. This only comes from real passion that you seem to have doing the things you do. Few people are like that:-)
+1 Reply
@sraosha - Thank you. Very passionate about market research since 1997 - David Alcindor
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Excellent as always David. Thank you.
+1 Reply
Food for thought! Nice article. :-)
+1 Reply
>the fact that hidden (occult) geometries remain in force herein
+2 Reply
just dropped a leg, slammed into $438 again. seems we're going to test the bearish outlook already ;)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
Yes, just added comment specifically about this. Old news being thrown at Bitcoin ... Falling on callous heads, IMHO ... See how target continues to hold (institutionally define, IMO), but still pay attention to levels defined. I will add one more "solid" support level that is likely to act as a last bastion for bulls if price continued to fall - David
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In support to what I was mentioning in the article, today, China is releasing the following news:

"Bitcoin Tumbles After BTC China Halts Funding Amid Concerns PBOC About To Get Serious"

But, if you read the fine prints:

1 - "... the PBOC's 'official' policy on Bitcoin has not changed since December..."
- This means that the NOTHIING has changed as far as the position of the ruling state. This is simply a reiteration of their position;

... what's plus:

2 - "... management decided to proactively halt deposits from one of the country’s largest banks ..."
- In addition to reiterating its position, the state rule has not implemented ANY action whatsoever. Instead, it is the Bitcoin transacting bank that has voluntarily halted its action;

... what's plus:

3 - "BTC China CEO Bobby Lee said his company had not yet any direct notifications from any of its banking partners ... no other banks have stated their intentions as yet."
- Meaning that no other bank have taking any definitive step - in fact, have taken absolutely no step - to help stop the transaction of the Bitcoin currency in relation to this or other bank.

... what's plus:

4 - "The PBOC has continued to deny that it will ban bitcoin outright ..."

No comment.

Now, do you understand how the news is a non-event, and how the press is being used to funnel jawboning blows at a chart, whose fundamental analysis has NOT changed a bit for FIVE months, and yet, someone is paid to trickle more hammering blows down the electronic pipe.

As a counter-trend trader, I would do two things:

1 - First, realize that the attempt to use old news (5-month old!) to impact on a currency that has had nothing else to talk about to justify lower lows is simply suspicious in its origin and intent.

2 - Review your chart, or mine if you trust the defined values, in terms of support, and see whether this sort of jawboning represents a move to these levels, as it has done most time I got the target right. This should alert you that institutional forces - not fundamental ones - are at play.

Here, for your review, the article source:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-27/bitcoin-tumbles-btc-china-halts-funding-amid-concerns-pboc-about-get-serious

Cheers,


David Alcindor

PS: As stated multiple times before, I currently have, never had nor plan on holding any position in any of the crypto-currencies. So, I generate my analyses free of fear, greed and hope, and the product that comes out has no other purpose but to elevate the trader's interest above and beyond price-based trading. Also as stated before:

"Price acts like a carrot at the end of the stick which is held by institutional hands"

If you can't believe this, review the following two news source, one pretty much is a video, while the other give explanation on the video content - I'll simply cut/paste my recent comments:


===========================

1 - A professional trader from whom I received lessons used to work behind closed doors, moving markets by releasing fundamental news that would be contrary to the masses' general opinion. This is done also by other trading services that simply dump millions of dollars simply to trigger stop-losses at calculated levels, causing a squeeze, and allowing either firms to load up on the back of weak hands - I invite you to review this simple video that reveals how easy and prominent that trick is:

a - Article: "How The Big Players Manipulate The Stock Market"
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDwQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Finstablog%2F2918951-g-hudson%2F1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market&ei=KRRdU4mSGKTuyQGm0IH4Bw&usg=AFQjCNHxI4zYUe4CLFCky5AALhakuk6_8w&sig2=S56mlbHgy7GrsAVnGikGig&bvm=bv.65397613,d.aWc

b - VIDEO: Jim Cramer Admits TO Manipulating The Market On Live Interview:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDQQuAIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DgMShFx5rThI&ei=KRRdU4mSGKTuyQGm0IH4Bw&usg=AFQjCNG4GfEWz_WF0CENuWiaKARTavwzHQ&sig2=PywB2Rs53L44qsDxa4jSWw&bvm=bv.65397613,d.aWc

===========================


PS-2: while taking the time to read and re-read the articles above, while sipping my coffee with a smirk, price has remained above my technical target that was the target @ 438.97. Whether price decides to "plunge" further down remains a possibility, but that forecast level is being fought over as expected, and bulls are holding their own.

... Remember that bulls are not you. Bulls here may be the institutional parties interested to load up while shaking the weak hands using tactics broadly used in the stock market itself. If true, I would consider this a flattery for this BTCUSD/Bitstamp, if you ask me.

Again, cheers!


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting




The PBOC itself has continued to deny that it will ban bitcoin outright
+5 Reply
Study this: Bearish Pennant Continuation…
+1 Reply
Thank you dopebroker - I do not use much of the conventional patterns, flags and pennants being the continuation pattern you are suggesting, but I will keep it in mind relative to the chart. Very appreciate your contribution.
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dopebroker 4xForecaster
You really should, they have been time tested and work well with BTC. Best of luck to you my friend. I'll see you at the mid 300s.
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bitstamp just broke 438, bouncing at 425 for the moment. Your chart above sketches the bullish scenario, but could you possible add how the bearish scenario might play out?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
Hi, @ronfkingswanson - The supportive range below was left to that effect - David
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Any new bearish target with $438 broke, @4xForecaster ?
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He clearly defined in his chart above a bearish target in the 363-384 range if this support didn't hold
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Jameve devlspawn
that's a range, not a target. he often gives targets.
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That should be a part of your own exit/entry strategy. Stop relying on this guy….
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Jameve dopebroker
I don't rely completely, I have my own chart and targets really
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@dopebroker - I appreciate your comments here, but I am not sure relying heavily on one pattern or another is any safer a methodology, since what you are recommending to us is entrirely price-based. my system is independent of price, and it has been able to define targets quite reliably. Feel free to post chart here, or on your chat thread, and please do call me over so that I can take a look at it. If you feel like posting targets/forecast using that pennant/flag methodology, I would also be interested to see how it works out, but these patterns are quite basic, and frankly overused. They are the stuff I am referring about, when talking about institutional traders painting the canvas with patterns that junior traders follow with Pavlovian reflex. Still, do post some of the charts in which you wish to introduce me to these ideas, and I would certainly give it serious consideration. Again, your participation is very appreciated, so long as it remains courteous and respectful of other traders.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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dopebroker 4xForecaster
So you asked me to link you up.. so here's an experiment in fib fans to attempt to be a bit less bearish and more bullish. I generally base my strategies on momentum, moving averages, and strength however I thought they also played will with the fans.
Fans Fans Fans….
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27 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

Now that the 438.97 target has been breached, look for support at the following levels:

1 - 373.59, which concurs with the 385.35/363.53 supportive range (in pink)

2 - Structure low at 339.79

3 - Ultimate low at 330.69

Target #1 is of moderate probability

Target #2 is of low/moderate probability

Target #3 is of low probability


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
Thanks! love your charts as always. A lot to be learned from you.
+1 Reply
Thank you @Jameve - David

PS: Here is the chart without all of the other technical details - Just the targets and supportive ranges:

snapshot


cheers,

David Alcindor
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28 APR 2014 - NEWS:

Nation’s first bitcoin ATM fired up in Mie

- http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/04/27/business/nations-first-bitcoin-atm-fired-mie/#.U12hfFV_srF … pic.twitter.com/zwJ7TODrMW


-----------------------------------

Get ready for a slew of abysmal-then-hopeful-then-abysmal news again and again. Here, Japan is launching a new Bitcoin ATM, whereas China is voicing interest in quitting Bitcoin, but has yet to act on any of its terms.

All manipulation, if you ask me, for the sole purpose to shake weak hands.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

As price is veering towards a bearish scenario, please refer to the probable support range and target defined earlier. Here is the chart with these values as well:

snapshot


Support zone = 363.53/384.35

Bearish Target = 373.59, representing the expected level of reversal.

Caution Note:
- A breach of bearish target (i.e. price breaking below and closing below would be a breach of the target, as opposed to a break below, but a close above 373.59, especially if candle forms a long pinbar, either red or green, which would both be relatively bullish to one another) would open floor to structure-low at 339.79.
- Here too, a breach of 339.79 would open floor to lower levels: If price breaks below that 339.79 level, then do not chase it, as it is likely to rest at an ultimate-low value of 330.69.
- This caution note does not reflect a directional opinion, but should simply be used as a stepwise methodology to take incremental decisions based on the price action.


David Alcindor
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icastor 4xForecaster
No way for the price to go UP from 425 level ????
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Hello @icastor - What I have offered are cautionary notes as price is drilling through prior support. So, at this point, the technical interest turns to probable levels of support below.

Once price shows reversal to the upside, then overhead resistance and targets will become of interest.

At this point, a consolidation continue to occur within the bounds defined in the analysis. The lower range (the bearish pink 363/384 range represents the next significant barrier against a bearish advance. I have also defined a specific 373.59 value as a forecast, whereby price should reverse.

As explained, if that reversal failed, then the trader should not chase price down, but instead wait and see for a settling to occur at 330.69. While this value is offered here, it does not represent a confirmation that price should or would go there, but simply part of a stepwise mindset I like to share with traders, as a way to reveal how I prepare for any contingency.

David Alcindor
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icastor 4xForecaster
thanks, will see that happens, I am in LONG position here now !
+1 Reply
sraosha PRO 4xForecaster
Now I do have a question. Since you spend so much time musing about Bitcoin price, why are you not personally invested in it - even with just a small amount for he sake of fun? Is it Bitcoin itself preventing you from investing, or the insecure situation of the exchanges through which one has to trade?
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@sraosha - I spent years understanding the "behaviors" of one and only one asset, which is Forex. Bitcoin has been a sudden discovery, and I never took the time to open an account. Still, it offered the same valuable predictable behaviors, so I have used it to discern more of the market behavioral studies I had started in the past. Thank for your kind inquiry - David Alcindor
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icastor 4xForecaster
any comments about current situation??? it seams that 425 level is strong enough
+1 Reply
I'd suggest waiting until the support is fully established. Its still pretty risky to get in right now.
I've 10k waiting on BTCe hehe :P
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iefan PRO LastBattle
Hi. Complete noob here.....dumb question, how do you know when support is fully established? Thank you for all the insightful comments, learning from every post.
Kind regards
Iefan
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@iefan - Thank you for this great question - not dumb at all, as it takes some good insight to even get to that question (some traders just guest and take a speculative position without established rule, but none of these traders exist on TradingView, right?).

Let me do a small write-up on this and attach that to this chart at a later time.

Great topic, and thank you for that.

David Alcindor
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@icastor - Adding comment in update now - David
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28 APR 2014 - Afternoon - Chart Update:

@icastor - No change in behavior = no change in analysis = no new comment. In essence, price continues its winding around the 438.97 level (prior forecast target), all resembling a consolidation.

I would need to see a break of structure (e.g.: breaking below and closing below 438.97) accompanied by a continuation of a downtrend to remain skeptic about a bullish bias. While price did break below that level, the next candles fell short of any bearish continuation pursuit. In fact, they have returned to close back above that level, suggesting a supportive market consensus - even if temporary - around 438.

The lower values assigned to the range would represent then next battle field IF and when price committed to a sustained descent, which it has failed to do.

All this continues to affirm a consolidation pattern.

David Alcindor
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icastor 4xForecaster
thanks, any update for 28 APR ???
+1 Reply
icastor icastor
sorry ) 29 APR !
+1 Reply
@icastor: LOL. You are killing me ... Are you scalping this one? The frame of reference here is H4. Sometimes, I calibrate my analyses using the M15, but H4 is what I use. So, nothing has happened technically - David
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icastor 4xForecaster
I want to close my LONG pisition actually ! Thanks again for your support.
+1 Reply
Have you asked @ronfkingswanson about steps to consider. While my analyses represent one side, I would ask ronfkingswanson about what to do based on your circumstance. If you are long, then consider what timeframe you wished to trade. If it's a M15, then yes, you might be a bit deep above the ankles, but if it's a daily, the water rising never hurt the water lilies - David
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I published this just moments before china went suddenly vertical. The 3-drives pattern fits well, with 3 of 4 intersections already hit, and it puts us right in your target low zone.
snapshot
https://www.tradingview.com/v/wcr9aheC/
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
@ronfkingswanson - Too funny. I was looking at that 3-Drives pattern earlier yesterday and put out a Twitter message:

"$BTCUSD: As we await for tech confirm. of bullish base, pattern traders might enjoy seeing 3-Drives pattern completion:18, 25, 28 April lows"
- From my Twitter account, alias: @4xForecaster

I'm glad we think the same.

David
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I guess I need to subscribe to your Twitter xD
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
Well, yeah ... :-)
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David would you consider the general pattern bitcoin is showing a classic bubble pattern? And are we doomed to go down down down? Cheers been following your work for quite some time and it is amazing. Cheers
+1 Reply
Hi @abail - First, thank you for the compliment. Very much appreciated.

Second, I can't say for sure whether this will turn down to hell or go up to heavens, but I can say with some degree of certainty what is the underlying trend, estimate a reversal level, and define with some confidence a target level for either support or when the circumstance arise, a reversal.

Granted, my analysis is only limited by its own kind of data - much like humans are limited by their own knowledge - but these are the sticks and stones I have learned to bang together, make sparks and come up with a solution. Okay, it's a bit more complicated than that.

One thing I cannot tell for sure is whether bitcoin is used to dilute a countries monetary mass, or impact on its currency liquidity or whether it will go down down down.

One thing for sure though: instead of looking whether bitcoin shows a classic bubble pattern - which he has and may have become priced in, arguably - I would look at whether bitcoin is showing the classic decreasing momentum of a bubble that is done inflating.

If you look at MtGox, you will see that the post-bubble pattern was respected quite strictly, as this crypto reverted back to its original growth trendline:

snapshot



Now, turning to the current exchange (Bitstamp), a look at price relative to its original trendline growth gives much to ponder:

snapshot


Now, I can already hear the bulls mooing the chart down, because they may be of the side of heavens, in contrast to cave-bound bears hoping perhaps that this trendline gets validated as it did in the MtGOX chart.

However, the question depends on your timeframe interest. If you want to scalp or swing trade this crypto, I would ignore these large scary-weekly charts and focus on scooping the gains, and if your timeframe is interested in the long investment plan, than prepare for snow in hell, because right now, only sovereign countries seem to know what will happen to Bitcoin.

1 - China is dogging it in verbs but no action whatsoever - See my Tweet from yesterday:
"$BTCUSD under scare tactics, jawboning - Read comments just added at bottom of this chart
Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
- Feedback appreciated."

2 - Whereas Japan has spent some of its resources to establish and announce its first Bitcoin ATM.

Let's see ... One country whose currency is falling is all words, while the other country whose currency keeps rising is all deeds.

Hmmm, down, down down ... How about up, up ... up?

Just saying.

David

PS: Remember that countries have much much larger timeframes of consideration (weekly) than the "little trader" us, so they can wait it out until Bitcoin dries itself up from the snow balls it could receive from hell.
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29 APR 2014 - Update:

Price continues to adhere to the bearish trendline without any commitment to lower levels.

As indicated yesterday/overnight, this pattern remains consistent to a consolidation pattern.

Keep an ear out on devastating, crippling news releases as price approaches the softer bearish trendline (dash green line) or the 541.00 level, as well as elogious, unicorn-fairy, kissy-white-prince on Arabian horse whenever price hits the lower ends (circa 414/383) areas, as institutional goobers seem to be out hunting for weak hands.

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
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herrschmidt 4xForecaster
Hahaha, thats so funny, because it makes so much sense! I will laugh even louder if your unicorn-fairy or devastating-crippling news prediction becomes true exactly when the price hits one of the target areas! Thanks for sharing all the great info!!!
+1 Reply
Sailfish 4xForecaster
David,
You wronte...
"Keep an ear out on devastating, crippling news releases as price approaches the softer bearish trendline (dash green line) or the 541.00 level, "

Only a day later....Breaking news....Headline...(repackaged old news actually) http://thenextweb.com/asia/2014/04/30/bitcoin-dealt-huge-blow-in-china-as-two-national-banks-and-tenpay-ban-the-virtual-currency/

That text includes these surprising and shocking text ...."Earlier this week, Bitcoin lost around 10 percent of its valuation after BTC China stopped doing business in China’s yuan currency with China’s Merchant bank. The market is still to react to the latest development, but as word gets out and the US business day comes around, it seems certain that we’ll see a price drop.

There has always been a large measure of uncertainty around Bitcoin in China. The price of Bitcoin tumbled when BTC China ceased taking local deposits in December — it was the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange at the time. That move came in response to a Bank of China warning that Bitcoin is not recognized as a legal currency in the country."

And actually predicting price becomes easier when understanding the manipulation of the weaker hands as you pointed out...then just look for the opportunities and take the "news" with a grain of salt.
Thank you for your insight sharing David.
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@Sailfish - Glad you are able to see through all this market manipulation too. Have agreat weekend - David
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02 MAY 2014 - update:

Twitter released:

"Update: New Momental Line Adherence; Higher Highs. Where Are The Bears?
snapshot
via @tradingview #Bitcoin $BTC $USD $BTCUSD"

David Alcindor

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In essence, price has carved incremental advances towards, the softer dashed green trendline. This should be construed as a sustained bullish advanced. However, my system has filtered this price action into its own directional interpretation, posting added bearish confirmation.

Hence, I have added the following cautionary supports:

1 - 398.00

and

2 - 373.59.

Question here is: Where are the bears. With my system in mind (directionally biased to the DOWN side), I would remain cautious about this recent incremental rally. Keep an eye out for bullish news at these levels, as they can only serve to trap bulls with an ensuing decline, with above values as likely supportive targets.

Still, there is NOTHING at this point to suggest that price is bound to any lower values than the consolidation space that exists between 363/384 supportive range and the underbelly of the dashed green momental line.

Again, look at this analysis and any other news through your own venetian blinds, filtering all lights as cinematographic projections of a well orchestrated B-type movie with all its Ooohs and Aaaahs due to an audience kept in suspension of disbelief - Disbelief is the operative word here.

Cheers.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
dopebroker 4xForecaster
I can agree with this, I believe we will break down from here, but really and truly there isn't much left to take it below the mid-upper 300s. My target cover is at $380. From there I'll be pessimistically bullish ;)
+1 Reply
In relation to your chart, what do you think about where we're at right now? It looks like it held well to your trend line again. The false breakdown was an interesting ride (I wish I'd covered on that bounce and sold again at 460), as always trend lines are never perfect. I think @Ronfkingswanson's 3 drives pattern looks the best for the short term although it conflicts with your chart a bit. I'm still quite bearish in the long-term. Any thoughts?
+1 Reply
Hello @dopebroker -

I am looking at the chart from a timeframe (H4), so the oscillations in price are welcome as long as it all remains within the defined parameters, namely above the "pink" zone and below the dashed green line, where price continues its insiduous consolidation dance.

A 3-Drives pattern in reference does exist within these confines and timeframe, but so would another separate one at the M15, all the way up to a Daily timeframe (somewhat of a fractal phenomenon not necessarily associated with 3-Drives patterns per se). However, the same patterning in price action can also take on the guise of a bullish Wolfe Waves pattern, as well as that of an Elliott Wave's Diagonal or Wave-4 Triangle. My point here is that pattern are too subjective as a single reversal determination methodology.

Having traded since 1997, I may have fallen in the same class of other traders who sooner or later may realize that there appear to be a forced intention to pattern price in a way that remains suspiciously deliberate, and that only non-price analysis could possibly see through/beyond the canvas of a mere price chart and reveal the source of light which is the true intention of the market. Once you believe that a standard chart is an indirect projection of a light on a cheap canvas, your curiosity will likely pull you to explore the source of that projected light. While there may not be a discernible "projector", I have learn that the higher up in the projection pathway you walk, the finer the resolution of a price projection, hence my unfettered stare at predictive analysis and often proven forecasts, which is done independent of any price consideration - Some can call it quantitative analysis, while others may remain doubtful, but the results speak for themselves. I too was circumspect of this thesis, but the further you walk down in that little rabbit, the closer you get to anticipate price.

The lesson I pulled out of the market is to refrain from trading what is painted for the convenience of the price-based trader, who are left to react or second guess the painful pokes of price's leading edge. Instead, I would recommend any price-wary trader to consider more quantitative or qualitative approaches through the layering of indicators, which is up to that prospective trader to sift through the arsenals of lines, histograms and volume average which the mathematics of price and volumes have churned out over the years.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
A little rally now.. big dump should most likely start upon hitting 454 resistance :)
Waiting to get back at $400
+1 Reply
07 MAY 2014 - Update:

Friends,

So, here you have it: A ramp-up news release of injurious nature, orchestrated right as BTCUSD leaves the hugging cuddles of its trendline, suggesting an increasingly bullish disposition.

snapshot


Here are some recent releases:

"So DJ SEC ISSUES INVESTOR ALERT ON BITCOIN, OTHER VIRTUAL CURRENCY-RELATED INVESTMENTS"
- Re-tweeted off of my account today, alias: @24xForecaster

Here is another - (WARNING: Be careful, the following news might implode and doom the entire bitcoin world, then let it re-emerge into a prince charming beauty ... As before - Oh, hi, MtGox!):

"Department Of Defense To Study Bitcoin As A "Terrorist Threat" http://tinyurl.com/lqrev92%22
- Re-tweeted off of my account today, alias: @24xForecaster

If you find any other damning news out there, feel free to re-cycle the detritus here, and watch the price move opposite - Yes, still bullish on the crypto-ado, based on layered analysis.

Cheers,


David Alcindor

+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is the SEC related news release:
- http://newsbtc.com/2014/05/07/sec-issues-bitcoin-investor-alert/

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
such a convenient pump before the next leg down...
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
@ronfkingswanson - Yes, absolutely beautiful potential, harmonically orchestrated at the beats of pumping news - David
+1 Reply
I've added a possible higher pump rally target to that chart, at $470 btce, up where the long-term bear triangle would finally get touched again before falling. Any thoughts on the likelihood of such a climb? pretty much everyone is shortin from this level, as we're topping the current channel, and it seems so obvious -- but I get nervous when things seem *that* obvious...
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
@ronfkingswanson - Are you referring to the BTCe exchange?
+1 Reply
yes
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RurickJames 4xForecaster
"Department Of Defense To Study Bitcoin As A "Terrorist Threat" http://tinyurl.com/lqrev92%22...

Good FUD for us...

BUT

Ridiculous analysis....the actual Advance Planning Briefing for Industry documents does not identify Bitcoin as a threat, but rather, analysis of how Terrorist organizations are employing virtual currencies....it's all about following/watching the money flow
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO RurickJames
@RurickJames - Absolutely right. All the analysis of DoD does is juxtapose one within a potentially bad usage context. It's insult after insult ... the type of strategies used by institutional trading houses that like to get in by releasing injurious news that has nothing to do with the intrinsec value of the asset.

At this point, there is simply too much money, developed infra-structure, and interest built into it to turn this crypto away.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Update/Reply:

@ronfkingswanson - BTCe/H4:

Here is what I got from predictive/forecasting model:

Higher probability of DECLINE for now, with downside support as defined by range. Lower-end of range is usually a lesser probability event, but comes out as equal prob:

snapshot


Also, a 3-Drives pattern seem to lend support at an approximate conjecture with above data in chart, so overall, a solid foundation seems to build up within range defined above.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
Hi David,

wonder what do you think now? price is just hovering at your defending line resistance.
Reply
10 MAY 2014 - update:

Did we reach escape velocity? Did BTCUSD peels itself off of the gravitational muck that plagued its near-death experience?

In other words, is this a bitcoin renaissance?

Following chart in BTCe suggests that price action has indeed reached above and beyond the technical confines of a very-physical channel:

snapshot


However, taking a look at our original Bitstamp BTCUSD, we are smacked back to earth, realizing that there remains some drilling to do overhead:

snapshot


In the case of the first chart (BTCe), i have highlighted with the dashed blue arrow a pathway that would suggest added confirmation of price's technical escape, whereas in the second chart, the dominant green dash trendline remains intact and now definitely a prevailing physical force upon price.

I would demand that both chart's conditions be met (i.e.: price validates the resistance-turned support trendline in the first chart, and price breaks above the green trendline in the second chart) before turning turning any steel bearish feeling into a glowing glimpse of hope, as these sentimental alchemies are too often dimmed by the crushing reality of a rigged market.

Trader beware.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
Hi David, thank you for your timely reply. Some technical indicators are indeed turning positive, but somehow I do not have a good feeling about this putative reversal, I am more expecting it will turned out to be another dead cat bounce in 2-3 days. Will see. Very curious.
+1 Reply
Hi @Asterix - Yes, indeed. This is what I was implying by the use of two charts. It would be simply too easy for institutional traders to bring price to a fake-out level (typically near a 0.618/0.886 Fib-based range), then push the price back down towards a fateful low, where enough weak-hands can deliver the goods in the process.

A long-term bullish outlook is best guarded by some healthy pessimism towards the immediate future and the possibility of a calculated - albeit short-lived - bearish reversal.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
LastBattle PRO 4xForecaster
The recent rally from 428 to 440/450 was started from Bitfinex.
Apparently there was a sudden 3k Bitcoin purchase. It was shortly followed by BTCe and Bitstamp despite the heavy sell walls..
Reply
Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post this: Potentially of interest to traders in BITCOIN, USD, GOLD, SILVER, HOUSING. I first heard about Bitcoin on Clif High's site http://www.halfpasthuman.com/ He had developed a system of gathering useful investment intelligence by using spyders to crawl the internet - sold data to the institutions and began making some of it available free on his site. But his methods gave so little timing info. that it was (IMHO) of very limited usefulness. He's trialling a new method which should give much better timing info. in the short term. Latest data especially relevant to BITCOIN, USD, GOLD, SILVER, HOUSING here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDKBvb0UCHg Hope it helps someone.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nick.stoneman.5
Thank you for posting - This might help bitcoin traders obtain the information they seek about the crypto.
+1 Reply
nick.stoneman.5 4xForecaster
You are welcome David - hope it helps some people and it does tie in with your forecast potential for BTC price suppression between now and the next rally. I should have added that the info is free. I've found it useful. Be interesting to see how it plays out.
Reply
13 MAY 2014 - Update: Model is nearing Bullish Market Reversal Confirmation Signal ... Once confirmed, I will post it ASAP.

David Alcindor

+3 Reply
flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
thanks for the update David.
+1 Reply
Hi @flibbr! You are welcome.

Model says it's coming to a head, so watch out. Very to no bear per data, but it has turned its coat many times before - Trader beware!

David
+3 Reply
flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
haha yes it has.. but yeah.. bears seem pretty beared out... buyers seem interested... looking good..
+1 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
Volume is really drying up to the downside now (and has been for the last few weeks). Bearish strength is running out it seems. I don't think BTC will rocket up anytime soon... but it seems like it's on the long (probably several month) road to recovery (by that I mean higher prices), is that what you see David?
+1 Reply
Yes, so far, the model has indicated a bullish signal.
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Asterix 4xForecaster
Hi David, you still leaning bullish? What do you make of this prolonged flat price action - or actually non-action, lol?
+1 Reply
Price is sideways, but model has turned bullish. In most recent price action, model is showing weakness on the upside, but remains bullish ... Part of the sideways action.
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LastBattle PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you!
+1 Reply
17 MAY 2014 - Update/Comment:

452.7/452.00 seems to impose a real battle ground for bulls, as entrenched bears have been able to defend that ground right after price escalated across a series of trendline resistance levels. At some point, bulls may have to regain some momentum, and this would be accomplished by a slight pull-back into the support levels defined in the chart - However, this opinion is generated independent of my predictive model, where parameters remain bullish, but time is not factored in.

If indeed you believe, as the model seems to interpret, that the outlook favors a bullish outcome, remember that institutional traders can swing their swords in two directions: Up/down and right/left. In a swift up/down direction, retail stop-losses are hit and the institutional trader literally takes himself into a lower, cheaper bullish position.

In contrast, in a not-so-swift right/left move, stronger retail hands are cut off by virtue of the retail trader's own perception of time wasted "not trading", thus eventually giving up on his position. Because the retail traders are by nature more likely to trade on a much smaller time frame, they are also more likely to give up their positions when a price seems to "go nowhere", which is really an erroneous notion.

First, already holding a position and doing nothing about it when your fundamental/technical outlook remains intact IS trading - If it takes too long, them perhaps you misjudge and need to recalibrate your time horizon, or simply turn to another asset. Truth is, it may not be trading at a rate that you need at the moment, but you are still holding a position, and as long as the factors that caused you to generate that position are still in place, then there is little to no reason to change - Is there?.If you need to trade faster, I suggest that you mix your trading style between assets that move differently over time - In its first chapter on "Volatily", Bitcoin has taught a lot of traders that it could move across fantastic heights within the narrowest spans of time. Now that the same students remains sitting in Bitcoin's same auditorium are perusing through the next chapter: "Time", it will likely cause some to stand up and leave the auditorium - It's the same Bitcoin, the same environment, but simply a much slower part of the lesson.

Second, institutional traders receive large orders from investors that have much longer horizon lines in their interest to gain from an asset. While the institutional traders might be able to generate quick arbitraged earnings, they are the ones through whom orders pass to acquire or dump assets. Make no mistake: This processing is NOT erratic, random or chaotic. Instead, it is very much a controlled process, which defines the very nature of their role: Makers of a market (MMs) and liquid providers (LPs). Plus, traders such as myself could not possibly generate predictive and forecasting models if we did not have a data whose measurable behavior allows for the interpretation of price direction and the projection of support, resistance and reversal levels, as I have been able to demonstrate in Forex, indices and stocks.

The most valuable lessons in trading are not at the computer screen, gazing into lines and patterns. Some are at the local park watciing children play, some are at the patient's side, and others are at the nursing homes. While you take a trading position that may demand a day or two, or perhaps a week or two, and the conditioned that fashioned your mind to take that position are still there, then take a moment and walk to that park, volunteer at that emergency department, or visit a nursing homes - Trading lessons are not taught by price or charts, except the painful ones.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView MOD
+4 Reply
20 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Twitter feed just now:

"$BTCUSD achieved escape velocity; look for re-entry opp along TL -
snapshot
via @tradingview $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin"

snapshot


In essence, BTCUSD maintained its forecast direction, and remained above the conditional line. Therefore, a temporary decline did not occur, which means that a chance for an entry at discount for the bitcoin trader did not materialize.

Nonetheless, the bullish forecast remains in force, and the lines and zones defined from the recent forecasts remain well in place and in force.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
* * * NOTICE * * *

Friends,

As of today, I will post all technical notes on the following chart's link. I will stop posting notes on this one, as its thread has become too deep and the chart has lost its relevance at this bullish juncture.

Link to new chart:
-
#Bitcoin Consolidation: Recoiling Before Springing? | $BTC #LTC



Cheers,

David Alcindor

* * * * * * * * * * * * *
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