Yesterday, I wrote a long piece describing the technical and predictive analysis of BTCUSD ( ), as well as identifying supports, resistance, targets and offering a general directional assessment of the crypto. I also mentioned that the chart was coming out soon ... So, here it is.
In addition to cut/paste the technical/predictive analysis and forecasting I wrote yesterday, I will add specific examples of on-going BTCUSD charts, paying particular attention to hidden geometries, alternative technical considerations, all this to emphasize the preponderance of technical and quantitative data pointing to a rallying.
In the risk of narcotizing the reader's mind, I will try to be as detailed and critical as possible, so as to remain unengaged in one directional bias or another. Please, also know that, despite all the work that has gone is these analysis, I have not traded any of the bitcoin crypto-currencies, I do not have any open account in any of the bitcoin crypto-currencies, and I have no interest in doing so. My job as an independent proprietary analyst is to look at non-price action, that is the work of the market, which for most is followed through the action of price, but to my opinion, uses price as a carrot dangling at the end of a stick which is held by institutional hands. Therefore, price is NOT what I study. Price is merely the light projection on a cinema screen which entertains the masses. Instead, I seek to study that from which the light originates, which is the matter of interest in quantitative analysis, or one that I defined as predictive analysis and forecasting.
Being unengaged in bitcoin trading, I have a non-emotional and non-threatening position, which allows me to study without the interference of fear. i hope this is enough credentials to earn your trust and support. Feel free to express this by following me on Twitter (alias: 4xForecaster), adding comments at the bottom of the chart within a respective discussion thread, or simply "thumb-up" the chart. I will take that as a currency of appreciation.
The technical comments will be added in the discussion thread. So, please, give me time to add the technical commentaries below.
Thank you for your kind support and trust in my analyses. Feel free to review the prior analyses and forecasting, which are offered as links below, as they also contain deep and quite involved threads of technical discussion.
For the time being, I will quickly comment that this chart was built on 16 APR 2014 at 0946am when price was @ 522.04, and was shared in privacy with TradingView admin/Moderators. The arrows suggest a probable price action, which so far has been correct. Again, I will provide more detail on the expected price action in the discussion thread that follows at the bottom of this chart. If it's not appearing right away, it's because I am still working at the illustration of other BTC charts.
CROW Signal Service:
- From Twitter signal:
"$BTCUSD: The 438 scenario discussed last week remains in force as bearish momental line continues to impose its will: http://www.tradingview.com/x/2O33ovTZ/%22
Follow me on Twitter, alias: @4xForecaster
Why are you always bullish? I've followed your postings via tradingview for several months and it seems like you have a permenantly bullish bias in every analysis. I too am "long term bullish" on the fundamentals of Bitcoin but have you even considered the possibility that we could fully retrace to the start of the bubble? I am concerned that your desire to see the market go bullish is impacting your ability to rationalize the clearly bearish trend.
I have been trading Bitcoin since 2011 and fully understand that new lows are possible. As a professional trader I am very often wrong myself. However, it seems that every time I come to tradingview to follow the trend David has been drawing lines to show a bullish path.
I enjoy reading everyone's opinions on price action but there seem to be far too many "To the Moon" people that bought at the highs, are grasping for hope, and ignoring what were strategic exits over the last 3 months while the bearish trend was continuing.
My main criticism comes from his words such as "caution to the bears" for which I have been.
I know what signs to look for in my own trading to go bullish and at best would need 1 month of bullish action to confirm. Until then any bullish trades I might make would classify as aggressively counter trend with "caution to the bulls" in the current state of the market.
So, it looks like we are both at the opposite thesis of the market analysis, as I look for early confirmations, while you seem to look for late confirmation signals. Both of which have their own merit, of course - David
My thesis is grounded in that I am a trader. Therfore I classify trades as aggressive or conservative for the purpose of allocating risk. At all times I want to be following the prevailing trend with the largest position size for the highest probability.
In my experience even if you catch a reversal late there is still ample reward following confirmation. BTCUSD is no different. In October 2013 I saw a clear resistance around 140 which once broken proceeded to 1200. One did not need to pick the bottom to have caught the 1000% return. Trying to do so would chip away at your profits and confidence. That may then chip away at your available capital and your resolve when it comes time to place the trade.
If you have not yet gotten into trading I highly suggest it. Having skin in the game could take your analysis to a whole new level.