4xForecaster

Bears Running Out Of Rope? | $BTC USD #bitcoin #litecoin $Gold

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2854 35 15
Friends,

If you have followed the predictive analyses and forecasting for this crypto-currency, then you received the most recent bearish target, with a floor defined at 408.87 - Here are a few for your review:

1 - Following significant rally, a low 554.65 target is defined (29 days ago)
-
Update: 50% Retracement Potential | $BTC $USD #Bitcoin #Litecoin


2 - Bearcoins are back (6 days ago)
-
Bearcoins Are Back . Again | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin #Gold


3 - Defining BEARISH supports (3 days ago)
-
Bears Rolling Down Hill | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin $Gold



Now that we are coming to the very last of the support defined by my predictive analysis and forecasting system, one has to raise several questions. First, with a doubting overtone:

How do we know that we are at the end of the rope?

The simple answer is that we don't. The system offers signals, and it is up to the individual trader to look back at the information that has come out of it and that I posted to see whether there is any real reason to doubt a system that has been quite on the money so far.

Assuming that you have residual doubt, then let's look at some technical events of late.


TECHNICALS:

Taking a look at the WEEKLY chart above, there is little doubt as to the existence of a long-term trendline that has offered its support three times so far, and is now building the anticipation of a fourth one.

The triple bottom that we are about to witness happens to also define a potential 3-Drives pattern. The purist would disagree with the implied Wolfe Waves Pattern expressed through the 2-4 Target Line, however, I will leave it there, because as a non-pattern trader (at least not as a principle mode of trading), I have had quite a lot of reasons to build respect for this 3-Drives/Wolfe Waves hybrid organism.

Another pattern to consider in the background, defined by the X-A-B-C-D is a Butterfly , with a Point-D projecting to a 1.272 x XA, and lining perfectly its 1.618 x AB into a surgically equal PRZ @ 1374.16.

A reverse engineered rally into a speculative 2-4 Line might be quite a stretch, but again, all my targets were considered worse than that if you followed my earlier analysis. So, I won't feel to ridiculed here either.


OVERALL:

At this point, I caution the bear , as the ultimate low target is nearing. Given the 400.00 historical structure-low, price action closing below that level should invigorate the bears and scare the bulls. But until then, I would encourage bears to keep an open mind about the potential reversal at the levels defined above. This is not a question of being right or wrong, but of remaining with the market.

The market has defined a long-term trendline to cushion the current decline into a potential reversal level that falls squarely with the forecast value of my system @ 408.87. While that value was qualified as low-probability of being attained, price is nonetheless reaching the market's gentle trendline support at or near that value.

The directional tag is now moved from short to neutral until these price/trendline interaction solidify a support.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting



-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis , classic technical analysis , basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
Great! Thank you for your analysis!
My EW counts also say me that we should close the daily candle at around 420 and then a trend reversal is possible.
Also, we have 365-day EMA here.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO ShortThePlanet
2 years ago
Thank you @anatolio - EW count is not something I am tucked into my trading armament, but I know that it's one that carries a lot of potential truths. Care to post a chart with the wave counts?

David Alcindor
Reply
ShortThePlanet 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Sure:
The Bottom is probably here


I'm not very experienced in trading, right now I'm training to forecast price movements (and trying to trade), so I can be often wrong. But right now the bottom at this level (~420) is obvious for me. We have finished a flat ABC correction, where wave A is usually = wave C by percentage of price movement.

There are different approaches to EW analysis. Some people believe that every price fluctuation is a subject to EW analysis. But I discovered that only CLOSING 4h/daily prices are applicable (this also is written in the EW textbook). Closing price is the price when everyone agrees with the current price level.

So, if I right, the price still can dive lower these days, but the daily candle should be closed at around 420 or so and it would the correct bottom of the correction.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
03 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

Here is where we are within the 4-hour chart:

snapshot


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
Technician TOP
2 years ago
Allow me to totally Disagree,

First: Intuitively: do you want to fight the financial system,I wouldn't. Bitcoin suggest decentralized medium, where Bitcoins are used as an exchange medium out of the system!, Bitcoin eliminates the need for banking intermediaries, do you think that is possible? or they will allow that?

They will not, and here is one step to the elimination of BTC::

The IRS has recently considered Bitcoin as a property , accordingly capital gains must be reported and taxed differently. Do you know what does that means? it simply means that every transaction made even the simplest should be reported, and that would practically be un-doable, for taxpayers, and may cause them to avoid using virtual currency. Also legally, now the IRS could look after anyone who spends bitcoins that are more valuable than when earlier purchased.

Demand for bitcoint will be much much lower, as it would be a less attractive investment, and thus bitcoins will trade at where the started trading below $50.

Good Luck,
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Technician
2 years ago
Thank you @Technician. Your input and candor is very appreciated.

Not sure what is being argued here though. I recently warned bitcoin traders here and on my Twitter account about the deleterious effects of the IRS's asset classification. I also remarked that bitcoin is given greater relevance and authority, and is likely here to stay by virtue of financial laws being drafted across the globe in order to give this asset a place in the world of electronic transaction.

I am not sure I have ever excluded any value. $50 dollar is as good as any value, as long as the condition I had defined is met, which is a break and close below the 400 level, in which case, I expect my forecasting system to shift its focus to the downside.

Again, thank you for chiming in by offering your directional and fundamental opinion.

Cheers,

David Alcindor

Reply
Technician TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David,I am arguing on the provided analysis above, which is a directional arrow towards 1375, with no other possible bearish scenario illustrated on chart. The point is, its just like fighting the FED. Fighting for a currency that doesn't exist, it only exist among the people who believe in it, these people are not influential in the current world order of globalization of financial markets. Bitcoins are not currency, and the latest strong appreciation of the value of bitcoin was on speculation and on some assumption that it will be a currency, so the devaluation process is imminent following the IRS decision.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Technician
2 years ago
@Technician - Yes, I definitely agree on these points. In fact, since you were offering a much more abysmal valuation than that of the system, I decided to look at it using a completely different way (one used by Harry S. Dent, Jr, an economist I follow quite closely), using the baseline growth rate of the underlying asset. According to that author, ALL bubble rise and fall, and all fall back on that rising trendline. Quite an interesting perspective indeed, which leaves anyone capable to guess what the current value of the asset should or could be.

That text and chart is a few entries below.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
TheChasm Technician
2 years ago
Currency is an idea in itself. Bitcoin doesn't exist because you don't believe in it. Make sure you are aware of your own bias.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO TheChasm
2 years ago
@TheChasm - True. Same applies to the US Dollar. In fact, it had to be forced onto people as a "legal tender" for everyone to adopt it. That statement still exists on all dollar bills, lets we lost faith, Or bias.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
* ... lest we lost faith ...
Reply
alvnngyn 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The difference is that the USD is backed by it's government and military. It is the De Facto reserve currency of the world and is facing deflationary pressure from increased taxation and capital flight that will happen as Asia and European economies turn down.
Reply
Emanance Technician
2 years ago
I understand the US Government also banned gold once upon a time.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Emanance
2 years ago
And marijuana.
Reply
Emanance 4xForecaster
2 years ago
And both are legal again. Taxing Bitcoin like this in order to cripple it's primary function is similar to the way the 1865 Red Flag Traffic Act of Britain crippled it's fledgling motor industry, virtually gifting this sector to other industrialised rivals. All this will accomplish is to push the US further behind in the digital currencies, gifting the benefits of this world changing tech to economic rivals.
Reply
usaoscoin Technician
2 years ago
Shots fired.
Reply
BBFX
2 years ago
Crypto currencies are 21st Century economics. They will adapt and integrate into our global markets system! Change is volatile and difficult, but always necessary!! Just my view on this!! :-) Intersting thing, if price goes down to $200, it may still rise up at Point-5', and take off, just when everyone has finally written it off!! lol :-)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO BBFX
2 years ago
I have NOT looked at any refined bearish scenario, as my system has continued to point the levels above as being solid bases from which a significant support exists. So, again, until 400.00 is violated AND the system churns out new levels below that, I won't have much to report.

Nonetheless, it is still worth discussing what @Technician is proposing in terms of value. In a recent report from Harry S. Dent, Jr., who claims to have studied all of the major world market bubbles across centuries, one of his starkest observation is that ALL bubble-bursting markets return to AT LEAST the normal growth trendline that dominates across time, if not lower. He had that this has been true of ALL markets, all countries, all ages without any exception.

So, looking at Bitcoin from this point of view, here is what I was able to draw:

snapshot


What the chart demonstrates is BTCUSD through the Bitstamp exchange, highlighting first the supportive trendline that has carried price up to its major bubbling valuation.

Now, extrapolating on the current rate of devaluation, the extension of the declining channel, directed at the price current rate of change since its apex, brings Bitcoin towards that normalizing trendline at a value ranging between 130 and 150.

Added in it are parallels of that baseline growth trendline, stacked upwards to justify against the initial burst, which helps offer an upward bracket of the initial growth, carried forward, yielding a range of 150 to 335.

Hence, assuming that 400 breaks, and that price continues its controlled downward course to normalization of its value, then it would not be much of an exaggeration to speculate an average value of about 242.50 MAXIMAL valuation against a BOTTOM value near 150.

It will be interesting to see what comes out of the system compared to this theory-based true valuation of a normalizing asset, following a post-bubble-bursting unwinding.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
Technician TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Great Point, I totally agree on this rational assumption, going back the Norm.
Reply
ClearView Technician
2 years ago
It all depends on how you define 'norm'. Before the November bubble, the only bubble on the chart was last years' April bubble. That bubble *never* returned to the mean as defined by the slow and steady climb leading up to it from the 2011 bubble. So, will BTC:

1) Return to the *original* mean as defined by a trendline leading up to last year's bubble? This would be far lower than 100.
2) Return to the mean defined on 4xForecaster's chart above? If so, then the rule of 'always returning to the mean' is broken in the case of the April bubble.
3) Or, is last April not considered a bubble, as it is dwarfed by the recent $1200 behemoth? If so, who's to say that there won't be another that dwarfs the November bubble?

The IRS (and China/Russia's) rules are a wet blanket for the time being, but Bitcoin's utility reaches far beyond currency-like transactions in the United States. Those who waited for a 'return to the (~$30) mean' after last year's bubble were disappointed. If the same pattern plays out, $400 could prove a solid bottom before another run up. However, all patterns are bound to be broken sometime, hence the current discussion.

Anyway, many thanks to 4xForecaster for posting these charts and analyses that I very much enjoy, and Technician for your point of view. :)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO ClearView
2 years ago
@ClearView - Thank you. I see your point about the continued amplification of the value over time. So, may be it will simply shrink back into a sucking blackhole vortex and take us all in with it. Who knows. Still, I appreciate every chance I have to analyze these problems, and I very much appreciate your kind feedback.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
BuyOnPurple PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David,

I agree that a return to a baseline growth trend might be in the works. But as clearview partially pointed out below, this can mean quite a few things. Here's my suggestion: take it for fact, bullish or bearish, that IF bitcoin is going to continue to grow along some mean, it will do so as almost all other infant technology networks -- in a logarithmic fashion. With that in mind, here's what I see as a potential correction to the mean:
snapshot
Note the green vs. yellow diagonal lines. Also note that in the next few months, my yellow logarithmic trend, which was developed from much lower prices and much less aggressive expansion move than the baseline you extrapolated, is actually a lower support than what you've offered -- our lines meet up at the beginning of November (ANOTHER November rally?! Just kidding) and mine dominates from there on out -- but still with a wholly reasonable growth target where this yellow line doesn't hit $1000 until late 2016.
Reply
flibbr PRO BuyOnPurple
2 years ago
$1m btc.. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0
Reply
BuyOnPurple PRO flibbr
2 years ago
I love slippery slope's model, his trend is nearly identical to my green line, but my yellow price trend being bout 10-50x lower on the period of the next 1-5 years and still remaining bullish is comforting
Reply
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
This is an interesting chart, but not as appealing as it has a mathematical model for growth based on prior data without a theory as to why this should occur, as opposed to Harry S. Dent's reversal to baseline.

Now, remember that the charts that I offer are also based on accumulated data, which the system uses to define levels of support/resistance, reversals and targets. With enough backtesting, I developed the confidence to "listen" to it and trade by it.

But in the absence of any reasoning, I would have to chose two things:
1 - A system that has worked for me in my years of trading
2 - A theory that has proven right over several centuries.

And to go further, if I had to chose between my system and a time-tested theory, quite frankly, I will have to chose time over mathematical outcomes.

And as usual, time is the only one left standing to tell the tale.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
U going to come on a google hangout and talk sometime David ?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
Nah. I appreciate the invite, @flibbr, but I will wait until TradingView develops a virtual classroom/conference, and then perhaps I might pop in, but for now, I have way too much things to do. Again, I am very appreciative of the invitation Flibbr. Thanks!
Reply
flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NP David. Look forward to chatting with you and trying to squeeze out some of your method out of you. ;-)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyOnPurple
2 years ago
@BuyOnPurple - "my yellow logarithmic trend, which was developed from much lower prices and much less aggressive expansion move than the baseline you extrapolated"

Bingo! Keywords here:
1 - "... developed from much lower prices ..."
2 - " ... much less aggressive expansion ... "

Exactly right my friend. You simply found a much better, quieter baseline from which to base Harry S. Dent's reversal to the baseline growth theory, and I think you defined the right one.

Very nice job!

David Alcindor
Reply
nick.stoneman.5 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. Not read Harry S. Dent's work but seems sensible. I'm just not sure we've seen the full bubble yet. I'm short at the moment, but expect to be long again in due course. This vid. suggests there's more to come from Bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI I'm not saying this will happen - I'm saying at the moment we're looking at price action which is usually hidden in the pre-IPO phase so perhaps there's more bubble - or at least another bubble phase - to come. Either way, time will tell. By the way, as I've said before I really like your charts! Thank you for taking the trouble to produce them. Personal note: BITFINEX:BTC is now available on TV. If you ever find time to do a chart for that I for one would much appreciate it. Best wishes, Nick
Reply
4xForecaster PRO nick.stoneman.5
2 years ago
Hell nick.stoneman.5 - Appreciate the feedback. Yes, I have looked at the other exchange as well, but decided to stick to this one. As more exchanges have shut down/consolidated over the past months, I now expect to see less price disparity among them.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Friends,

Now that we are at sub-bearmost target levels, and still carving out now lows. more bearish news is raining on the cryptos, indicating that "China's Bitcoin exchanges say banks will close their accounts" (see news here: bloom.bg/1qm30TB).

So, where does it leave us?

If you were part of the debate that opened in this thread last week, you would perhaps take heart at the fact that there is no immediate needs to run for cover, and in fact to rejoice if you are among the short sellers. If you are long, at least find solace in the rationalization that if this in fact was a bubble and that it is in fact bursting, then there is a definable ground waiting to soft your 1,000 meter jump. Besides a couple of fractured ankles, a bruised ego and a traumatized sense of confidence in a rigged market, one should console with the simple physics fact that gravity still works. ... And this is to contrast with the other larger financial markets where up is down, black is white and that the US market is not in a bubble, per reassuring words of the paper-printing talking heads at the Fed. Feel better?

Didn't think so.

Still, please see comments and exchanges left above regarding the probable direction, path and projected level of this falling knife. You are welcome to attempt to grab it, but it might pull you with it.

Looking at the chart itself ...:

snapshot


..., note that I have highlighted with arrows the probable levels of support which might bring temporary support, even though the theory that bursting bubbles return to their original baseline growth trendline still supports the fact that price is most probably going to continue its downward course until a valuation is normalized to its trendline.

Per the chart, a depth of normalization is expected between 335 and 150 (I would seek the lower end here), whereas a breath of normalization over time will probably support price at or above the 150 level.

Again, there is a lot of fundamental event weighing on this falling asset, and gravity is doing its natural job here. In other words: Down is down.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
ShortThePlanet 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I don't think so. If we reverse at $335, then we'll confirm the long-term trend channel:
snapshot
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The next VERY strong support level should be ~$260 (April ATH) hard to believe it will go past that otherwise bitcoin is bear forever
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 MAY 2014 - update:

In order to remain objective, I have offered several analyses using different timeframes, different charts, and different comments - See the following for the most recent analysis on Bitcoin:

1 - BTCUSD/bitstamp - H4 Chart/Analysis:
"#Bitcoin Consolidation: Recoiling Before Springing? | $BTC #LTC"
-
#Bitcoin Consolidation: Recoiling Before Springing? | $BTC #LTC


2 - BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H4 Chart/Analysis:
"Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex"
-
Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex


I am not sure where I placed the charts that provided monthly/weekly views of the "Growth Trendline" concept, but suffices to say that this concept was proven right with BTCUSD/MtGox, which attained its baseline level and was able to rally from that level. Point here is that exchanges are lining up behind bulls, and the technical outlook remains further supportive of a sustainable rally.



Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out