4xForecaster

Bears Bite Back On Bitcoin | $BTC #bitcoin $USD

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
5384 135 30
Traders,

An early bearish reversal signal is coming out of the bear cave, ... You know that growling sound.

Technically speaking, price has been on a quasi-reversal trend to the upside went it turned around from 555.90 and hit a new pitch at 607.20 (see chart). However, price has dunged into prior depth as it reversed once again near that prior low.

From the current level, a rally to a structural hurdle, such as 576.44 remains a high probability, but a continuation of that decline will remain a threat to bulls if that level remains validated but not transgressed in a way that clearly sends price to higher grounds. So, for cautionary measures, consider 576.44 as a strong bearish entrenchment.

A pattern trader might decipher a Gartley , or perhaps the cocooning of a butterfly , if indeed price were to fall to lower lows, below 555.90, that is.

The predictive model itself posted an early market reversal signal, short of a confirmation. While the targets remain unconfirmed, i will define them now as a mere warning sign, sort of laying out the ground with red flags to signal bear traps on the way down there.

Still, the PINK zone will act as the LAST bullish bastion, before such bearish minefield scenario plays out. The targets are thus defined as:

1 - TG-1 = 557.43 - 11 AUG 2014

2 - TG-2 = 538.42 - 11 AUG 2014

and

3 - TG-Lo = 524.20 - 11 AUG 2014.

As you may recall, the numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) are levels that define stepwise pauses where price is likely to post a shallower retracement (expect 0.214, 0.382 or 0.500-Fib retracements), as opposed to the qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Lo or TG-Hi) represent levels that are LESS likely to be visited, but IF and ONCE price does reach these levels, it will likely act as a reversal level, pushing price out and passed all other numerical targets and beyond.


OVERALL:

Predictive/forecasting model has posted a warning signal, suggesting a potential decline to targets defined above. This bearish scenario has a HIGHER potential to being executed IF and ONCE price crosses below the PINK zone, thus opening the floor up to these bearish targets. Of course, there is a potential of a Double-Bottom pattern occurring as a very last level of bear rejection, but this is still an unlikely scenario compared to the possibility of a decline.

For now, the directional sign will remain on "Neutral" until a definitive price action commits to one or the other direction relative to the levels defined.

First things first, pink zone!

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


--------------------------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------------------------------


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LastBattle
2 years ago
love the title, as usual.
+1 Reply
Asterix
2 years ago
I think we are getting down more, there is remarkable lack of enthusiasms in the bounces up, and even very few bounces up anymore. The market has not been reacting to any good news for months, but bad news is always an excuse to sell. On the other hand, even with tightening regulations, bitcoin fundamentals are better than ever, so I am still long-term bull, although in no hurry to but "cheap coins". Looks like we will get many opportunities in the coming weeks or months . Lack of substantial buying on the dips maybe the result of exact same attitudes in other retail investors.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------
$BTCUSD Bears held their ground at forecast level; Short rally will likely face bears

-
snapshot


via tradingview | #bitcoin
------------------------



snapshot



Crypto'ers,

Bears remained in control at this point, despite a short-lived counter-attach at the bottom of the forecast range ("pink zone"), which may send price to a limit height, one that I would expect to end near the aforementioned 576.44 level.

If and once price breaks above that level, then this would represent a substantial win for the bulls. However, if it failed, I would look for the floor softening up under precarious hooves dangling close to the numerical targets.

The battle carries on.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Oh no! You exposed the area which I am opening short positions :(
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - Getting short at what level?
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Any time when there are signs of dumpage, 572-575+ is great.. :)
snapshot


I'm watching this carefully on my screen... http://imageshack.com/a/img540/1380/JqSyAp.jpg
Reply
LastBattle
2 years ago
TG1 hit :)
8k Litecoin short! 5.7 -> 5.12
+1 Reply
Asterix LastBattle
2 years ago
Yeah, TG1 hit and no signs of reversal
+1 Reply
LastBattle Asterix
2 years ago
Very weak bounce now... no buyers, expect TG2 soon.
Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
Do you think this will form a full 5 wave cycle down? If so, TG2 could form either beginning or end of wave 3 - 4?
Wave 5 ending around TG3, do you think?
+1 Reply
LastBattle johnrfraser
2 years ago
I can't tell for sure. Hedging 50% short and 50% long now, either direction it move I'll just close the opposite position of the trend.

Although the volume is low, but on the bid side the buying pressure is building :)
Check out Bitstamp's depth: http://imageshack.com/a/img539/8963/qRH8T0.png
The lower we get, the more bouncy that springboard is.
+1 Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
That's interesting to see...funny thing is though, do you find the depth chart works counter intuitively...the steeper the buy wall near the 'mouth' the harder the price fals towards it...is that how you read it yourself? I always use the Bitstamp one on there site to confirm trades using precisely that rule. Seems insane that buy pressure would bring price down but it certainly does...within close range of the trade level anyway.
Is this what you see or does it sounds insane?
+1 Reply
LastBattle johnrfraser
2 years ago
I take that with a grain of salt :P just bulls flexing muscle, but if a real panic were to come. They'll all withdrawal their bids.

Anyway, panic now..
+1 Reply
LastBattle LastBattle
2 years ago
Until I see a decent volume bounce, I won't get in yet.

Well the steeper it is, the less chance of anyone making the first move. However sell pressure from high volume exchange like Okcoin will always break that.
+1 Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
Do you think this might look right?
snapshot
+1 Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
Wow, seems wave 3 hit the 525 already...so the final leg down, 500 or even further you think? I don't see a lot between there and 450. Have I got these waves looking right?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
13 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------
All $BTCUSD targets Hit; Expect significant bullish reaction; Hi reversal potential

-
snapshot


via @tradingview | #bitcoin
-------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

A day from establishing conditional targets, price played out as forecast by meeting first condition (the "Pink Zone"), then taking out the targets one by one. TG-1 offered a conversion from one old candle to a new one, then price marched on like a steamroller against a line-up of marshmallows waiting over hot asphalt.

As indicated before, quantitative targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n) often act as significant levels where only shallow Fib-paced retracements would occur (typically in the order of 0.214 to 0.500).

In contrast, qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo) refer to low-probability levels of getting hit, but once and if price does reach these levels, it would typically act as a major reversal potential level, whereby price would be pushed and sent off to a counter-directional path.

At this point, I would expect a significant rally to occur in the higher Fib orders (i.e.: 0.500 and above), followed by a potential consolidation BEFORE price prepares for a rally. There are certain conditions that need to be met for this rally to occur, and one of them (i.e.: outside of my prop predictive/forecasting model) would be a development of geometries, such as a Bullish Wolfe Pattern, or a bullish diagonal triangle, demonstrating a preparation in price (i.e.: consolidation) in an imminent rally.

In the interim, expect TG-Lo to be visited, but not transgressed in any significant depth. If price does fall below that level in any significant depth (measure about 0.214 time the height of 607.20 to TG-Lo, then prepare to doubt any bullish revocery.

In contrast, a depth of continued bearish incursion exceeding 0.414 time the heigth of 607.20 to TG-Lo with price closing NEAR that level should warn you about a potential reversal.

Kapish?


Cheers!


David Alcindor


PS: Candle is turning green as I write this:

snapshot

- DAA
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Excellent anlysis mate...I was calling this 5 days ago and people shouted at me :/ (dat bull panic)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Yes, I understands. Happens to me quite often as well. It's never personal. Takes time and trust.

David
Reply
Asterix 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I think we may be going for double or triple bottom or more down - not that much buying so far, looks like 540s are no longer considered bargain price

+1 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Really nice work David, thanks and congratulations again.
Sorry, I didn't mean to hijack your post with my sample charts to LastBattle earlier.
Incidentally, have you anything you can inform me of in terms of EW waves, how many there have been in this breakdown, where they are? I'm reading Constance Brown's book on EW and trying to put into practice.
Many thanks,
John
+1 Reply
johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
Actually, looking at your chart, I see 5 clear waves already, from top to bottom...so a solid 5 wave breakdown from 587 to 525?
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johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
*570 to 525
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
I use fractals to help count EW, and look at the different wave counts you'll see in 4h-1d-1w charts. Makes my life simpler.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Feel free to post a chart on that. I am not familiar with the fractals indicator, if this is what you are talking about. I have seen arrows above major price moves, but still not sure what it entails exactly - David
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johnrfraser IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks IvanLabrie. I've looked at fractals this evening after seeing your post, they look intriguing. Surely linked to EW then, being made up of 5s?
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4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - Hello John.

First, feel free to post charts and initiate a discussion here. I will do my best to participate, chime in and provide my opinion whenever possible.

As far as waves go, I have not looked at any particular wave work at this point, although glancing at the chart, I can say with some confidence that the sharp decline that occurred at the release of the signal corresponded with a wave-2 completion (i.e.: corrective move), thus raising the probability that it would be followed by an impulsive move, which turned out to be true.

However, I announced this with the coincidental observation of this wave-2 fact, but not with the intention that it would be what would occur, simply because I am not the smartest wave guy around. @DanV should really be the go-to guy, as he eats a whole lot more raw waves than I do - I stick to peanut butter geometries and jelly mathematics sandwiched in uncooked prop patterns.

Regarding Connie Brown, this is serious reading you got yourself into. She is definitely one I would recommend to start with. Reading her works would be tantamount to handling a a wooden rod and trying to propel oneself over an Olympic high bar. Yet, the measures of what can be learned and probed into is worth experiencing, and she will provide the full breadth of the immensity of what can be amassed in this technical field.

I fell into her book and never quite got out of this abysmal knowledge. In fact, I decided to stay therein and keep digging my own tunnels. In other words, this field remains a wild west environment, and much can be found with a whole lot of naive approach and a lack of bias - Both are the two best pews with which to dig.

So, dig on, and do not hesitate to ask, if I can ever be of help.

David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Heck of a reply! ^
I'll check that book out.
I think the traditional EW count can be problematic since you can't be 100% sure if a wave is a 3 or a 5, but you can definitely tell them apart from corrective counter trend moves in general, they 'feel' different and show different momentum and harmonic patterns.

Are you using log charts or rely on arithmetic scale for the geometric stuff 4x?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hi, @IvanLabrie - I use a different set of tools that do not involve the price chart itself (can't reveal, but it's not too different from using indicators and use their behaviors as signals). Once I get a direction and a target range, I then use the price chart to plot likely levels, looking first at quant-targets then qual-targets.

I agree, the EW waves are good for retrospective studies, as it is never a sure thing what price is doing while it is still about to define a wave. However, combined with a bit of predictive/forecasting analysis, it becomes a game of Jeopardy, where a few letters make up the phrase, and there remains less possibilities of errors.

Aside from that, I also have some prop patterns (Euclid, Great White, ... ) which I use to finalize a potential reversal study.

It's tedious, but a whole less painful than playing chess in gravity-free night, or at least that's how it felt when I had no clue what the heck I was doing (back in 1997, sigh).

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - Here is a (very) simplified layout of a potential price pathway IF price was to indeed reverse from the recent TG-Lo.

First, the BLACK numbers correspond to the typical EW's 5-wave structure. I have not attempted to distinguish the scale using different enumeration styles. instead, I have used colors for point differentiation.

In the smaller segment that defines the price action moving towards TG-Lo (prices in BLUE), a similar 5-way structure is also define, but remains speculative, as marked by the ghosting of waves 4 and 5.

Typically, wave 4 should print either a sharp correction (i.e.: a typically zig-zag/ZZ, double-zig-zag/DZ or triple zig-zag/TZ), or merely a sideways correction (i.e.: a flat, Double-3 or Triple-3).

In contrast, wave 5, which is also ghosted, should typically be BELOW the end of wave-3 in any bearish impulse circumstance, HOWEVER, a surprise correction (which I would expect from TG-Lo) could bring up a truncated wave 5, whereby Point 5 remains at a similar or higher level than the level achieved at point 3.

In any case, this remains speculative, as price can always fall under other circumstance. The scenario I have highlighted above represents a probable play, but it is tainted by my own bias by expecting that TG-Lo remains the lowest point achievable in this circumstance. If it is true, then look for a significant consolidation activity. If not, then we'll return back at the measuring table and see what else we could learn from our incessant human erring.

Cheers,


David Alcindor

snapshot
+2 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, thank you so much for this and your earlier reply…really really stoked to have had your marked up chart in reply to my query :-)
My apologies for a belated response, being in the UK I missed the action last night and have been tied up in work since.

Yes, I have 15min with Connie Brown (from your recommendation) each morning on the bus, which I lament as I wish I had more, but at the same time, it’s as much as I can take in a sitting! Pretty proud that I’m doing exams on the run to work though :-)

I’ve not read enough to fully follow the overlapping wave cycles you’ve shown…my understanding thus far was that they all scaled into one another.
That said, what has played out since has surely seen the lower and upper level s coming together, forming a marked end to both wave 5s! Amazing.

So as you eluded in your post later today, a corrective phase must come now, where we see a retrace somewhere into Wave 3 but an inevitable move downwards too?

Pleased to say that my EW reading kept me from being drawn into the wave 3 -4 bounce yesterday and I held out for this mornings crash as I’d a hunch for another wave :-)

I attach my chart showing my 2 EW predictions of the decline. The yellow one was what seemed to want to happen but just seemed too good to be true…so I bought on the green one unfortunately ;-)

Hopefully Bitcoin will last long enough for me to master it :-)

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Yes, this is a very good first attempt at forecasting an IM move using EW, @johnrfraser!

Best entry is to look for a CONFIRMATION of an impulse. IF you really have to trade compulsively, then do so by a half-measure/lesser position size on expected corrections, and full measure/full-position on impulse moves.

The best way too CONFIRM an impulse move using a purely technical/structural approach would be to wait for a break + close of a candle past a defined point.

For instance, using your YELLOW 5-wave count, a break BELOW point-1, as well as a break BELOW point-3 would have been a great way ti go in at full measures, as well as considering a stacking of these positions (i.e.: one full position added to a prior full position), while using a very STRICT stop-loss approach.

A stop-loss would be first placed above Point-2 and Point-3 in each of these cases, then wait to break even, in which case, a S/L would be placed at the entry level of each positions.

In a counter trend, only a half position could be used, using the same structural approach, but a gain is not as large because of the lesser position size and the shallower retracements effected by these corrective waves - My take here is to simply be aware of the waves and only consider IM moves as reasonable trading opps.

Just an idea.

Thank you. Glad you are enjoying the reading.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
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johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Awesome. Thanks David. Glad to hear this approach...I was imagining 'pros' buying and selling through every single wave while I stood and watched...but what you describe is actually one trade from the whole 5 wave setup?
Cheers David.
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Asterix
2 years ago
This is the first dip that I am not tempted to buy. Ok, left one small order to fill, but not any meaningful buying.

All the indicators are use scream bearish even on daily and 3d and weekly scales. What do you guys think? Do you believe it is likely we entered months-long bear market recently?
+1 Reply
johnrfraser Asterix
2 years ago
This is the first time I've seen a big dump and for it to fail below where it started.
I had a feeling somehow that dumps would be coming that wouldn't go back up...forced down and just held there by a huge invisible weight from above...perhaps price is being manipulated into a lower zone to bring in a new wave of buyers? In Gordon Gecko's words, 'more lambs to the slaughter' :-/
Reply
cezarone
2 years ago
Bullish Bat

seems like a bullish bat
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO cezarone
2 years ago
http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsaltbat.htm

Don't think so...If we break 512 and retest 490 area it might hit 460 imho. Last daily bar shows indecision, so we're at a strong PRZ, over 300 period daily EMA too.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
14 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------
$BTCUSD bears pressed on lower; Facing hurdle @471 (0.618-Fib) and 448.84 (model)

snapshot


via @tradingview | $bitcoin $BTC
------------------------


snapshot



Crypto'ers,

Bears proved to be stronger against bulls and technical expectations. The predictive model itself held its ground for a while, seeing a temporary rally right at the defined areas. However, in a matter of a few 4-hour bars, bears stomped all over the bulls, pushing the odds of a bullish reaction at the widely anticipated 0.618-Fib level at the even $471.00 price handle.

A predictive model overlay (unconfirmed) sees a stronger bullish entrenchment at a lower $448.84 level.


OVERALL - The predictive/forecasting model that defined the recent targets got crushed by bears acting out of a higher timeframe. Whether this means that larger, better funded players are taking positions by buying at all available, ever declining ASK levels, or whether some yet unknown fundamental news is causing institutional players to alleviate themselves of prior positions remain to be proven (reading both optimistic and pessimistic arguments on boards).

For now, best is to keep to technical analysis and see what price reaction we obtain at that first defined level above. A sustain buoyancy around $471.00 should not be construed as a sign of impending reversal, considering the strength of the recent bears. However, a correction might occur first - which should not be construed as a reversal - as overhead bearish resistance entrenchment would wait against any bullish intrusions, especially around $557 and $576 - See 4-Hour chart below, where a $492.49 is defined (unconfirmed) by the model. However, as mentioned above, the DAILY chart seems to be in control, suggesting better funded, larger players.


snapshot



Cheers,
+1 Reply
DanV MOD 4xForecaster
2 years ago
At fist glance, the wave counts look reasonable thought both wave 1 and 3 on the above chat appear to lack the internal minor 5 waves. So they must be something else and should fit its context in larger price action. I did consider it initially but for the reaosn juust stated dismissed it. So here is my latest counts on the chart in context.
snapshot
+3 Reply
johnrfraser DanV
2 years ago
Thanks DanV :-) Wow, so minor 5 wave patterns continue to run through the abc corrections...I'd not realised that.
So despite the the boldness of today's moves, they are not in an 'impulse' phase, they are actually minor waves in a greater abc correction?
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johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
Nice set of fib confluences too.
And imminent bounce of RSI?
The divergence indicated, lower rsi lows and higher price lows, what is that, bullish?
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4xForecaster PRO DanV
2 years ago
Nice, thank you @DanV for chiming in and clarifying the wave counts - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
15 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------------------
$BTCUSD battles on DAILY grounds; Nears signifcant targets and resistance range:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
-------------------------------------


Chart-1 - BTCUSD/Bitstamp: DAILY:
snapshot




Traders,

As posted recently, a series of predictive model-based targets were defined but remained unconfirmed, mainly as both 4-hour (see below) and daily (see above) timeframes provided conflicting data in terms of "who's in charge". As time unfolded, the unconfirmed target in H4 was easily transgressed as price moved on past its bearish level, seeking deeper valuations.

Hence, at this point, I would turn to DAILY chart (below) for a probable consolidation and possible corrective move. In the thread, we discussed the EW's 5-wave anatomical structure, and @DanV was very kind to chime in and elucidate the on-going development with his own charting input. While EW remains a retroactive wave-based pattern constantly seeking completion of current price action in order to verify and confirm recent wave completion, it remains one formidable tool to use in any advanced trader's armamentarium.


Chart-2 - BTCUSD/Bitstamp: 4-Hour:
snapshot



On its side, the predictive/forecasting model remains capable to define future levels of R/S and reversals, but I recommend traders to also develop their own predictive model using a layered approach through trusted geometric patterns, wave methodologies and simple indicators/tools with which they feel most comfortable, so as to design a consistent algorithmic model that clearly defines a set of conditional rules with which to trade, remembering that all indicators are no more no less than a mathematical expression of either price, volume, differential moves in either, or the combination of any of these. In other words, the wealth of indicators available in the technical worlds are simply digesting and interpreting in their own "words" either static or dynamic changes in price and/or volume, sometimes peppered with a time component. The result is a "verbal accent" that seems to speak different jargons, but can all be correlated in discreet ways. So, don't load up too much on indicators 92-3 should do: one about price , one about volume and one about time x volume, or a combo thereof) - Just my honest opinion.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Amen! :D

I use stuff for each of those fields, as you say. My prediction was hitting 450, so 448 is close to my target.
Had a stop sell at 490 too. (gotta love stop buy/sells, really useful)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Very nice @IvanLabrie - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
16 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------------------
$BTCUSD remains open to BEARISH targets:

1 - 471.00

and

2 - 448.84

Chart:
snapshot


via@tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
------------------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

I have defined primary waves in the chart (bracketed Roman numerals) as a way to anticipate and compare a probable price action RELATIVE to the predictive/forecasting model.

Therefore, Wave remains under development, and has been placed speculatively at a lower level, using the model's bearish-most levels, from which a significant rally could occur.

Thank you.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
16 AUG 2014 - Addendum:

Although completely speculative, there is room here to rationalize an Ending Diagonal to complete the primary wave-5 (Roman numeral V).

An ending diagonal (ED) is composed of a 5-wave pattern of a lesser degree relative to its composing Wave-V, each sub-waves being corrective zig-zags: ZZ, double-zig-zig: DZ or triple zig-zag: TZ.

Using momental angles expressed in the history of this chart, I have drawn a simple, speculative descending triangle which offers the basic envelop of such potential ED development with its 5 ZZ/DZ/TZ subwaves.


snapshot



Have a fantastic week-end!


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Twitter: @4xForecaster
+1 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Excellent! Thank you David :-)
+2 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
...I've been looking at this all day trying to figure out how a wave completion ending at that target range would look...very timely post!
Is it possible to post this as a live chart David?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - John, feel free to take it and run with it - Please, keep reference somewhere, if you do not mind.

Here is the chart, live:

https://www.tradingview.com/e/rJZOCzqq/#

- David
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johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Absolutely, I will do.
Thanks a lot David.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Very nice and I fully agree David. Been studying the volume action and price spent at price and I concluded we would see a range extension down to 441 give or take, from a high of 510 (yesterday).

Seems like a wave 5 with corrective sub-waves is under way. :D
Thanks for the great charts ;)
+2 Reply
cezarone
2 years ago
buy or die!
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO cezarone
2 years ago
Resistance at 518...heh (top of my projected range was breached, calculated 5 bucks over the last one.)
Long was a good short term trade but it's a bit risky now.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
17 AUG 2014 - Update:

I have adjusted Wave-III of primary based on recent price action. Wave-IV of primary remains speculative until a lesser-degree ZZ pattern (i.e.: a-b-c waves, at the very least) develops fully and completes Wave-V of primary. Overall, this should impose little change to the recent chart I posted, especially since this EW wave definition is occurring as a speculative overlay against a separate predictive/forecasting model, which has kept its targets intact and in force - See chart below:


snapshot



Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


--------------------------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------------------------------
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
17 AUG 2014 - ADDENDUM

From Twitter:
-------------------------------
$BTCUSD starting an #elliottwave Ending Diagonal? Targets remain intact:

-
snapshot


via @www.tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
-------------------------------


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Scalping each swing, looks like a bumpy ride so far.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
17 AUG 2014 - Update:


Chart update:

Intermediate Wave-b of intermediate a-b-c pattern has been updated - Although I do not mind looking at Elliott Wave intricacies, I can't help but notice that EW nomenclature demands completion of the waves. So, although very interesting an exercise, this demands hindsight, as opposed to the predictive/forecasting model I am used to, which simply lays the values ahead. Nonetheless, I hope that the overlay of EW helps you guys:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Brilliant thanks a lot David :-)
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
18 AUG 2014 - Update:

471.00 coming up ... Very soon, very close:

snapshot


Cheers,

David
+1 Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nice bounce around your lower target but I really doubt it will hold. This downtrend is quite strong and btce sold into the lower 300s effectively spoiling the outcome of price actions in the days to come.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
18 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
--------------------------
$BTCUSD: All bearish targets hit; Another real bounce or a fake reversal?

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin
-------------------------


Traders,

Last time the model defined a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Lo), it set up the expectation of a potential reversal, which is what should have occurred at these defined targets - As you may recall, following is what happened at the time:

12 AUG 2014 - Targets are defined as two major R/S quantitative (TG-1 and TG-2) and one reversal potential as a qualitative (TG-Lo):
snapshot


13 AUG 2014 - All three targets are hit; Significant reaction occurs at TG-Lo, but is it a real reversal:
snapshot


14 AUG 2014 - Speculating on a possible price pathway where a consolidation is occurring; Still no real reversal; Could EW help?:
snapshot


15 AUG 2014 - Model signals that price interference may have occurred in daily timeframe; Drawing a daily timeframe defines abysmal targets:
snapshot


16 AUG 2014 - Defining lower targets with Elliott Waves overlay: Tedious as it requires constant redefinition of points:
snapshot


17 AUG 2014 - Price does move in the bearish territories as defined by model:
snapshot


18 AUG 2014 - Finally, price hits all pre-defined levels. Now what?
snapshot



To answer the question of the last charts, I could elaborate on the meaning of the impulse of primary Wave-V and indicate that this typically calls for a corrective A-B-C pattern, but Point A of such correction would need to first occur before it would even define Point V (which is one of the tedious aspect of EW: Having to wait for one point to occur before it can possibly, but never systematically, define the prior point).

However, in the case of the model, I have to also remind you that the lower targets were defined with the complicity of the DAILY chart, as follows:
snapshot


Hence, I would have to rely on the coordination of bulls across both timeframes, to expect that a significant bullish entrenchment exists at the current level (hit both from a H4 definition as $448.84 and a daily definition as 450.16). In the case where this reversal would not occur, I would simply have to expect that much stronger institutional forces (daily or even perhaps weekly price controllers) are pushing this cryptocurrency to levels that cannot be defined, since the model tends to focus more precisely on lower timeframes, and would tend to lose its predictive and forecasting qualities in higher timeframes.

For the time being, I will keep an eye on the charts and continue to offer the analysis whenever a relevant price action event should occur - But, for all intents and purposes, the expectation at this point is a significant pullback and reversal, as per the qualitative levels defined by both the H4 and the daily models.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
More question marks, thanks anyway ! :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
Yes, for some reason, there is a whole lot more uncertainty at the moment, and this may have to do with the interference of higher timeframes. As you may know, each timeframe represents a different level of financial power, the higher the timeframe and the more financially powerful the ability to interfere with price.

As discussed before, the typical small trading account holder (retail trader) would trade at a M5 to M15 level, as it cannot tolerate the price range that should occur in H4 and daily levels. In contrast, non-retail (i.e.: institutional) players tend to work at the H4 to daily levels, whereas banks would enter rarer positions at daily to weekly levels (for a good example of bank rared plays, take a look at the infrequent positioning of major banks' FX positions in the room I opened recently: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ).

While higher-frame interference occurs, there is no clear visibility of what is occurring at the lower frames. In the case of the model, I have calibrated the analyses to matter mainly at the M15 and H4 levels, since this combo offers a hybrid insight into retail and institutional coordinated positioning.

At this point, there is reason to believe that large institutions are controlling the game, and that once there positioning activity (either selling or buying) is complete, then the chart will revert to more predictive and forecasting move at the level in which the model was meant to see.

This would occur if and when price reverses at the qualitative targets, such at the 448.84 - If price does reverse at this forecast level, then we will know that the higher players (which only take rarer, but price moving and direction-defining positions) are finally done with kicking this cat around.

Hope this makes sense.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
18 AUG 2014 - NEWS:

The following is very a-propos to the comments I made this morning, when I mention that the predictive/forecasting model works unless there is a perceived interference from higher, better funded levels, which we defined as institutional/banks - The following article indicates that such manipulations are real and on-going. Very timely, indeed:

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930

ARTICLE:
--------------------------------
For a decade, Barclays (among others) rigged the precious metals markets with bursts of sell orders to maintain the illusion that the ultimate indicator of status quo failure was not flashing red. It now appears that Bitcoin suffered the same (but buying burst) manipulation in the last year as The Willy Report notes that last year, a number of traders began noticing suspicious behavior on Mt. Gox. Basically, a random number between 10 and 20 bitcoin would be bought every 5-10 minutes, non-stop, for at least a month on end until the end of January. Each time, (1) an account was created, (2) the account spent some very exact amount of USD to market-buy coins ($2.5m was most common), (3) a new account was created very shortly after. Repeat. In total, a staggering ~$112 million was spent to buy close to 270,000 BTC – the bulk of which was bought in November. So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason. But who did it? and why?

(chart not included here, but visible in linked source above)

It needs to be recognized that, whether intentional or not (though plausible ignorance only goes so far), Mt. Gox has effectively been abusing Bitcoin to operate a Ponzi scheme for at least a year. The November “bubble” well into the $1000?s – and possibly April’s as well – was driven by hundreds of millions of dollars of fake liquidity pumped into the market out of thin air (note that this is equivalent to “with depositors’ money”). It is only natural that the Bitcoin price would deflate for around 5 months since its December peak, since there was never enough fiat coming in to support these kind of prices in the first place.

Somewhere in December 2013, a number of traders including myself began noticing suspicious bot behavior on Mt. Gox. Basically, a random number between 10 and 20 bitcoin would be bought every 5-10 minutes, non-stop, for at least a month on end until the end of January. The bot was dubbed “Willy” at some point, which is the name I’ll continue to use here. Since Willy was buying in such a recognizable pattern, I figured it would be easy to find in the Mt. Gox trading logs that were leaked about two months ago (there’s a torrent of the data here). However, the logs only went as far as November 2013; luckily, I was able to detect the buying pattern in the last few days of November. Below is a compiled log of its trades on the last two days of November (from the file “2013-11_mtgox_japan.csv”):

29-11-2013 0:07 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 16.61124644 Fiat: 18709.31
29-11-2013 0:12 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 17.49854918 Fiat: 19402.8
29-11-2013 0:20 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 12.01301395 Fiat: 13346.46
29-11-2013 0:30 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 14.04190796 Fiat: 15172.05
29-11-2013 0:33 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 18.03482617 Fiat: 19785.76
29-11-2013 0:38 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 10.02069695 Fiat: 11011.54
29-11-2013 0:47 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 16.80501168 Fiat: 18256.07
29-11-2013 0:56 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 13.46333525 Fiat: 15078.58
29-11-2013 1:01 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 14.60390798 Fiat: 16324.46
29-11-2013 1:10 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 18.89383201 Fiat: 21909.61
29-11-2013 1:15 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 12.63500728 Fiat: 14339.39
29-11-2013 1:21 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 15.36861265 Fiat: 17395.3
29-11-2013 1:30 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 13.69985504 Fiat: 15469.14
29-11-2013 1:40 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 16.24860284 Fiat: 18411.35
29-11-2013 1:46 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 13.08811052 Fiat: 14901.38
29-11-2013 1:53 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 15.95674773 Fiat: 18116.97
29-11-2013 2:01 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 13.37224115 Fiat: 15224.97
29-11-2013 2:10 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 19.88618992 Fiat: 22699.37
29-11-2013 2:16 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 14.53897264 Fiat: 17228.68
29-11-2013 2:24 - UID: 817985 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 13.06074749 Fiat: 15496.65
(... list goes on and on ... - See full transactions in linked source above)


Some notes on how I obtained this data: first, I removed all exact duplicate entries from the log. As noted in an earlier analysis, trades that involved a user ID “THK” – whose likely role was to facilitate cross-currency trades – were erroneously duplicated in the logs. Second, since the log contains an entry for each individual user-to-user trade, I aggregated every pair of trades involving the same user that occurred within 2 seconds from each other, assuming these belonged to the same market buy/sell (2 seconds to account for trading engine lag, which God knows was sometimes enormous on Mt. Gox).

You may note that these are actually multiple user IDs (denoted with “UID”); Willy was not a single account, its trading activity was spread over many accounts. Perhaps this is why others had been unable to find him in the database: there were plenty of people who knew of its existence (in fact the OP of this thread allegedly coined the name “Willy”). I noticed here that all of these accounts had one thing in common; the User_Country and User_State field both had “??” as entry. This was unusual. Normally, these fields contained country/state FIPS codes (for verified users?), nothing (unverified users?), or “!!” (users who failed verification or suspicious users?).


So I went back and gathered all of these “??” users, aggregated their trades, and summed the amount of BTC that each of these accounts bought (they never performed a single sell). They seamlessly connected to each other: when one user became inactive, the next became active usually within a few hours. Their trading activity went back all the way to September 27th. The full record of trades you can see below:

27-9-2013 13:41 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 37.77728716 Fiat: 5183.15
27-9-2013 13:42 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 77.11243579 Fiat: 10615.65
27-9-2013 13:50 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 124.3094863 Fiat: 17103.01
27-9-2013 13:58 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 66.22492678 Fiat: 9138.56
27-9-2013 14:05 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 14.4184561 Fiat: 1988.84
27-9-2013 14:15 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 56.42944454 Fiat: 7783.81
27-9-2013 14:27 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 121.28227578 Fiat: 16724.02
27-9-2013 14:35 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 92.07404119 Fiat: 12697.49
27-9-2013 14:48 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 48.47025594 Fiat: 6683.61
27-9-2013 14:56 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 23.31089719 Fiat: 3203.12
27-9-2013 15:07 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 39.54104527 Fiat: 5454.27
27-9-2013 15:18 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 21.27506283 Fiat: 2933.12
27-9-2013 15:32 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 72.26039654 Fiat: 9966.66
27-9-2013 15:43 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 87.01885501 Fiat: 12003.33
27-9-2013 15:48 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 144.3968184 Fiat: 19918.03
27-9-2013 16:01 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 61.32151277 Fiat: 8461.08
27-9-2013 16:08 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 49.70599427 Fiat: 6859.43
27-9-2013 16:22 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 30.88567469 Fiat: 4262.15
27-9-2013 16:30 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 70.35798255 Fiat: 9709.22
27-9-2013 16:44 - UID: 807884 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 126.19723381 Fiat: 17468.84
(... list goes on and on ... - See full transactions in linked source above)


And a compilation of when each account was active, how much BTC they bought, and how much USD they spent, with some totals at the bottom:

User_ID: 807884
User: a6e1c702-e6b2-4585-bdaf-d1f00e6e7db2
Start: 27-9-2013 13:41
End: 1-10-2013 0:30
BTC bought: 17650.499699839987
USD spent: 2500000.0

User_ID: 658152
User: c1ac7aeb-ac34-49cd-8363-c4bcb36a2b9f
Start: 10-10-2013 0:49
End: 15-10-2013 1:53
BTC bought: 17348.26542219
USD spent: 2500000.0

User_ID: 659582
User: b337d02a-ccd5-4323-933d-35e59d228825
Start: 16-10-2013 1:45
End: 18-10-2013 11:14
BTC bought: 15695.016063759997
USD spent: 2500000.0

User_ID: 661608
User: 8bb6ff26-6075-42d3-86d5-57479005393f
Start: 18-10-2013 11:19
End: 22-10-2013 9:06
BTC bought: 14137.102515370016
USD spent: 2500000.0

User_ID: 665654
(... list goes on and on ... - See full transactions in linked source above)


So basically, each time, (1) an account was created, (2) the account spent some very exact amount of USD to market-buy coins ($2,500,000 was most common), (3) a new account was created very shortly after. Repeat. In total, a staggering ~$112 million was spent to buy close to 270,000 BTC – the bulk of which was bought in November. So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this is why. Not Chinese investors, not the Silkroad bust – these events may have contributed, but they certainly were not the main reason. But more on that later.

At this point, I noticed that the first Willy account (created on September 27th) unlike all the others had some crazy high user ID: 807884, even though regular accounts at that point only went up to 650000 or so. So I went looking for other unusually high user IDs within that month, and lo and behold, there was another time-traveller account with an ID of 698630 – and this account, after being active for close to 8 months, became completely inactive just 7 hours before the first Willy account became active! So it is a reasonable assumption that these accounts were controlled by the same entity. Account 698630 actually had a registered country and state: “JP”, “40? – the FIPS code for Tokyo, Japan. So I went and compiled all trades for this account. For convenience, I will dub this user “Markus”. Its trades are as follows:

14-2-2013 3:37 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2500.00000006 Fiat: 6600.01
14-2-2013 3:37 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2500.00000003 Fiat: 258373.84
14-2-2013 3:39 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 500.0 Fiat: 187.76
14-2-2013 3:42 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 500.00000003 Fiat: 16.06
14-2-2013 3:53 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 500.0 Fiat: 2279.47
14-2-2013 3:54 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 499.99999999 Fiat: 400.44
14-2-2013 3:56 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 499.99999999 Fiat: 2.04
14-2-2013 3:57 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 500.00000001 Fiat: 192.08
14-2-2013 3:58 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2500.00000004 Fiat: 1012.72
14-2-2013 4:15 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 499.99999997 Fiat: 1565.39
14-2-2013 4:16 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 19961.94
14-2-2013 4:18 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 104.08
14-2-2013 4:23 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2000.00000035 Fiat: 2133.29
14-2-2013 4:25 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2499.99999998 Fiat: 35675.81
14-2-2013 4:37 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 1000.00000005 Fiat: 29962.32
14-2-2013 4:40 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 768.51248974 Fiat: 504.59
19-2-2013 1:00 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 331.36211505 Fiat: 11577.17
19-2-2013 1:00 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 2168.63788501 Fiat: 21526.3
19-2-2013 1:03 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 310.9500576 Fiat: 1379.31
19-2-2013 1:03 - UID: 698630 Type: buy Currency: USD BTC: 189.0499424 Fiat: 591.13
(... list goes on and on ... - See full transactions in linked source above)


There were several peculiar things about Markus. First, its fees paid were always 0. Second, its fiat spent when buying coins was all over the place, with seemingly completely random prices paid per bitcoin. For reference, Markus is the “Glitch in the System” user in this excellent Gox DB visualization (on that note, all of the Willy accounts are the “Greater Fools” with just big green blotches around Oct-Nov). Upon further inspection of the log, it became clear what was the cause of these seemingly random values:

(see image in linked source above)


In this table, the first two trades (buy/sell pairs) are by some regular user with ID 238168. In the second trade, this user buys 0.398 BTC for $15.13. The next trade is some large market buy by Markus (ID 698630): note how the “$15.13? value from the previous trade seems to “stick”; regardless of the volume of BTC bought, the value paid is always $15.13. This is speculation, but perhaps for Markus, the “Money” spent field is in fact empty, and the program that generates the trading logs simply takes whatever value was already there before. In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime. Interestingly, Markus also sells every now and then, and for some reason the price values are correct this case. His biggest sell occurred on June 2nd. I’ve analyzed these trades separately here:

2-6-2013 8:22 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1998.98799992 Fiat: 254788.4
2-6-2013 8:23 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 999.99999997 Fiat: 127026.48
2-6-2013 8:23 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 127002.4
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 127018.51
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 127001.35
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.00000005 Fiat: 127004.44
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 127000.0
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.00000003 Fiat: 127001.4
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 127000.0
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 999.99999998 Fiat: 126894.45
2-6-2013 8:24 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1000.0 Fiat: 126500.0
2-6-2013 8:25 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 999.99999998 Fiat: 126417.04
2-6-2013 8:26 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 995.0 Fiat: 125339.88
2-6-2013 8:26 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1847.3314792 Fiat: 231285.05
2-6-2013 8:28 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 694.77000953 Fiat: 86753.84
2-6-2013 8:30 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1766.9595302 Fiat: 215912.72
2-6-2013 8:32 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 2344.29615506 Fiat: 283975.16
2-6-2013 8:36 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 191.90340171 Fiat: 23243.51
2-6-2013 8:36 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 1510.49150574 Fiat: 181498.64
2-6-2013 8:50 - UID: 698630 Type: sell Currency: USD BTC: 959.6804687 Fiat: 115485.64
(... list goes on and on ... - See full transactions in linked source above)


Sell 31k BTC, receive $4 million, re-buy 15k BTC, spend nothing. Awesome! Here is the corresponding chart for this day, just to show that these trades (from 8:00 to 10:00 am) actually occurred “on-market”, and had a significant effect on the price.

Some totals compiled for Markus:

( ... quite a long article - Feel free to check it right at the source:

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930


Phew!

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes, the article is old, but even this Twitter source deemed this information timely and pertinent, agreeing to manipulation still going on in other BTC exchanges.

From Twitter:
------------------------
zerohedge

Following today's BTC move, this may be worth rereadin: How Bots Manipulated The Price Of Bitcoin http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930
-----------------------

David
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dvo1k/margin_cascade_on_btce/?sort=new

Yes... lost quite a bit today too.
Luckily I am also well hedged not only on one exchange after the gox incident.
+1 Reply
johnrfraser LastBattle
2 years ago
Sorry to hear that LastBattle.
That's two in a week...and BFXs call seems to have defined todays price low (other than BTCe of course)
I fully expect the BTCe low to now form a benchmark low too.
+2 Reply
PaulAnthony 4xForecaster
2 years ago
what do you think of this?

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dohjg/im_josh_rossi_from_bitfinex_here_to_talk_about/
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO PaulAnthony
2 years ago
@PaulAnthony

This is very relevant information and timely (article in only 3-day old) that explains the same conflict I encountered in my recent analysis (discussed timeframe conflicts earlier, as a way to imply larger players' heavy handedness and interference in the retail-level pool of trading activities):

In essence, this is what this Bitfinex manager is saying:

"This morning, a small number of very large orders hit our trading engine. They were flagged as potentially manipulative in nature by our algorithms. We can't be sure of the traders' motives and as such we are not accusing anyone of misdeeds, but when our system detects an order that it deems likely to be manipulative in nature, our system introduces "speed bumps" to make sure that the market can catch it's breath."

Again: Thank you for sharing!

David
+1 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes... it seems that driving down the price of Bitcoin is more profitable than pushing them up with all the weak hands around.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
@LastBattle - Yep. That is how the larger players get in at a discount - David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
19 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------------
$BTCUSD revisits all prior targets on its way UP:

-
snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin
----------------------------

$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:
snapshot



AND:


----------------------------
$BTCUSD consolidates; Bears dominate; Bulls fight back; Reversal soon?

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
-----------------------------


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H4:
snapshot



Crypto'ers ,

M15 timeframe has been a proving ground for bulls, demonstrating their ability to fight back. In light of recent concerns about institutional heavy-handedness, I would venture to say that the decline was most probably due to long positioning and weak-hand shaking, than a concerted bearish pummeling of the currency.

However, the confirmation is best seen in the synthetic H4 timeframe, which provides a better measure of retail/investors/institutional concerted activity. Therefore, a bullish reversal remains to be seen at this relevant level, even though price has continued to act as per forecast, relative to the lowest-low target.

As you may recall, a TG-Lo target had been defined earlier last week, and price did hit it and reversed healthily. However, such target should have acted as a reversal marker, which it failed to do. Instead, price forced the system to redefine targets based on a less precises DAILY timeframe. While this is not inconsistent with the model's ability to predict direction and trend or forecast targets, it is most unusual that we would ever have to look at a higher target, except in such case when a stronger, better financed player splashes through the price data.



BTCUSD/Bitstamp - DAILY:
snapshot




I suspected that interference in the form of manipulation may have occurred, and a recent input from an article suggested that bitcoin traders might consider re-reading this ( http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930 ) article, which dates back from last year.

More recently, @Paulanthony posted this 3-day old article, which offers a very relevant information about manipulations and interference activities from well-funded (i.e.: bank and other such) large institutions - Here is the article for your review: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dohjg/im_josh_rossi_from_bitfinex_here_to_talk_about/

Overall, I want to thank you for your participation and enduring patience. The model I have designed and use in all of my predictive analysis and forecasting across all and any asset has a long history of providing quite relevant and precise directional as well as target values. I have also learned that any inconsistent price action relative to its quantitative (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n) or qualitative (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo) targets should be construed as an extraneous event interfering with the model, in which cases, either the timeframe is being made temporarily irrelevant due to heavier player in a higher timeframe (in this case, a daily timeframe was necessary to re-calibrate certain targets), or sheer manipulation within the same H4 timeframe is taking place, which may be less probable in this case.

If indeed price continues to rally, then I would rest assure that the recent heavy-handed should be construed in no other way but as a BULLISH event, as it reveals with no clearer evidence that large players are coming in the pool to splash and play, pushing price up in no shallow waves.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


(PS: Just got back from climbing my first 14,000-foot mountain. So, I will be resting a little and chime in in perhaps less frequency than you might be used to - Thank you for your king readership and reference - David)
+5 Reply
abail 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for the explanation David.
Just to clarify, does this mean that in the short term we will have an ascending trajectory towards the targets definied on the 11th of August (524 till 557)?

Cheers
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO abail
2 years ago
@abail - The targets have been ghosted in grey, simply because they have already been hit. I usually keep them in the field as they remain relevant to the structural trader, expecting price to pause at these levels.

While the M15 timeframe has been a glory field for the bulls, they remain stuck in bloody muck in the H4, as they fight an uphill battle against these bearish entrenchment which are aforementioned ghosted targets.

So, in the short term, it all looks bullish, however, the model I use looks at H4 level, which provides a more composite view of retail vs. large institutional hands. At that particular level (H4), it remains tedious, as bears predominate the chart, although not without some lost ground to bulls. Only time will offer the signaling data to confirm a reversal or affirm further descent in the bears' caves.

David
+2 Reply
abail 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you !! Get your deserved rest :)

Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------
$BTCUSD may consolidate within narrow bands; Bears will decide if/when to cede

-
snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
------------------------


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H4:
snapshot



Crypto'ers,

Above is a tentative quantitative definition of a consolidation, given the recent price action.

Looking at the DAILY chart, the predictive range has remained intact so far, in so far as it has consistently rejected the majority of candles; bodies. As you may recall, we discussed earlier that the predictive/forecasting model has been calibrated to provide its directional bias and target definition at a composite timeframe, which has been purposefully defined at the H4 level. This is because enough synthetic action between retail traders and institutional traders overlap at this level, such that a rendition of market intentions become clearer than at M15, H1 or above (H8, H12 or daily levels).

While the DAILY (posted below) view has offered a fair warning as to the interference of larger player activities, at this point, we are reverting our attention back to the default H4 view, posted above.



$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - DAILY:
snapshot




A detailed glance at the structural events across all timeframes warns the trader about several recent activities and reference zones, namely:

1 - Price has reacted to the completion of the 5th wave (green, squared V) - See M15
2 - Correction has drawn a W-Y-Z corrective pattern, with Z remaining pending - See M15
3 - Z of W-Y-Z corrective pattern remains exactly at the lower range of the overhead resistance zone - See H4
4 - Expect a limited decline up to the lower support zone - See H4


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:
snapshot



OVERALL:

At this point, and if above narrowing activity remains within these boundaries, we can say that most imminent activities will evolve around a consolidation pattern, whose lower and upper values would be confined by the pink bands defined in the H4 chart. While the DAILY chart has revealed bullish intentions from institutional footprints, traders at the M15 level should ready for further weak hand shaking ahead if the consolidation activity were to continue. Look for higher highs or lower lows as a sign of potential transformation from sideways to impulse pattern development.


Cheers,


David Alcindor

+1 Reply
Fahrenheit 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for those updates David, we appreciate it! :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a repost of the H4 chart for reference to above analysis:

snapshot


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 AUFG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
--------------------------
$BTCUSD moves to define #elliottwave's W-Y-Z termination point; 511 or 523.79?

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
-------------------------





$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:
snapshot



$BTCUSD/Bitstamp -
snapshot


Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It's good to confirm my hypothesis with your forecasts, and eventually actual price action. I like the composite approach regarding the instutional and more retail views, it's something I'd borrow.
My targets have been relatively on par with yours but I'm trading at BTC-E, interestingly.
Cheers,
Ivan.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Yes, the fact that these markets are in sync is a good sign that manipulation within one bitcoin market is not interfering with the synch'ing across all bitcoin markets, I would think - David
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, I thought you were going to be taking a break?!
Congratulations on your climb by the way :-)
I've just got in to see your set of posts.
I'm glad to have bought in at 500...tried at 475 but had a connection failure then taken over by work :-/
To clarify your point above...did you mean to 'expect' a decline on the journey to the upper pink zone, or now that we have reached it?
I see it tailing off from 422 but this aligns nicely with an apparent 1-2 wave correction ahead of what looks to me like a wave 3 (iii? - not got my scales down yet) up to 530 region?
With a potential 5th up to 550 even 560?
Many thanks for your continued EW notes too David.
All the best,
John
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
Hi @johnfraser - There are two distinct analyses. One for immediate price action in the M15 and H4, and the other for a more intermediate timeframe, in the DAILY. For now, I expect an interim decline from forecast high. Will post new Twitter update right now for added comments.

David
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David,
I take the liberty of attaching my H4 for reference.
Seems like a perfect looking Impulse wave of 5 to your target.
So this retraces now...but has this been part of (a) a correction or (b) a wave up?
a) If this is wave 1 of a bigger move upwards then it retraces to somewhere in 4, so about 508/510, then heads upwards to a big wave 3 move.
b) if it's the end of a correction though, then almost anything can happen? Or is there a logic that follows into a likely pathway?
Thanks as always
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - First, yes, please do post and offer alternate views and comments. My perception of the market is biasedly tainted by 1) my model; 2) the likelihood of erroneously misinterpreting a developing pattern, as EW works very well retrospectively, but constantly needs revising until a wave is complete at a lesser degree.

First, the pattern that quasi-double-bottomed is a Bullish Shark). Its first LOW point is named ZERO, and the subsequent higher highs are points X and B, spaced by Point-A as an interim low (halfway inside the pattern).

From Point-B, it rolled down to complete YET exceed a double bottom at Point-C, which completed this Bullish Shark.

As explained before, a Shark is an incomplete ("quasi") pattern, often accompanied by its 5-0 Pattern acolyte. It's called a 5-0 simply because it reacts to 50% following the Shark pattern, which is really what ended up occurring following the double bottom at Point C.

This reaction that completed the 5-0 Pattern shaped what you defined as Point A of a corrective pattern per EW rules.

HOWEVER, the pattern I drew in a separate chart of a separate exchange (Bitstamp in mine vs. BTCe in yours), formed a W-Y-Z corrective pattern (in fact, some pattern traders might even see a Wolfe Waves pattern as well, but we'll leave this aside).

So, right now, I am seeing a W-Y-Z at a lesser degree, while a higher degree where your A-B-C wave has completed, I see a potential for a Wave-1.

The definition of the Wave-1 is in fact more plausible on the basis that it requires an internal 5-wave structure, which is what has occurred if you count Point-A as the third wave up, and Point-C as your 5th wave up, while A-B would fill the Waves 3-to-4 requirements.

Is this making sense at all?

David
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes, excellent sense, thanks so much.
My studies have not yet reached the wxy stage though, and I keep seeing it used here...I gather you have defined it above though...wxy being a minor set within a higher level abc?
You rock. thanks David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - Yes: W-Y-Z paced by X and XX is a corrective pattern that looks complicated but simply requires the acknowledgement of a few internal conditions:

Corrective patterns are of two sorts:
I - SHARPS

and

II - Sideways.


Of the SHARPS, you simple have to deal with Zig-Zag alternated in impulsive (IMP) and corrective (COR) waves, which will occur INSIDE the entire SHARP pattern, such that:

1 - ZIG-ZAG = IMP-COR-IMP

2 - Double Zig-Zag = COR-COR-COR, or simply 3 x COR

and

3 - Triple-Zig-Zag = COR-COR-COR-COR-COR, or simply 5 x COR

Sure, there are more detailed conditions for "inside the inside" CORs and IMPs, but best is to look at the skeletal structure of price, and not at its marrow.


In the same way, SIDEWAYS have a similar internal structure, such that:

1 - Flats = COR-COR-IMP

2 - Double-3 = COR-COR-COR, or simply 3 x COR

and

3 - Triple-3 = COR-COR-COR-COR-COR, or simple 5 x COR

So, what's the difference?


SHARKS and SIDEWAYS differ mainly in the depth of reversal achieved within each wave relative to the prior wave. I recommend that you look up (Google?) the two patterns, especially if you are a visual trader. However, for all intents and purposes, I would simply say that:

1 - In SHARKS, X remains at a lower level than that achieve by Wave-W, and XX will remain LOWER than X

Whereas:

2 - In SIDEWAYS, X retraces to levels that engulfes all or most of the Wave-W, which XX will do the same compared to X.

Hoping this clears things up - If not, please verify this info with either @DanV who is very well versed in this area, or simply consider reading off of authoritative books out there, of which I could only recommend Mr. Prechter and those of his students.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
A really useful breakdown I'd not seen in such straight forward terms.
As I read it for the 4th time I was in fact thinking 'so what's the difference'? :-)
Funny, I came across Robert Prechter yesterday when I discovered EW International.
I must complete Connie Brown I think (then her 2nd EW book) then look into my next author :-)
Much appreciated David. Thank you
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
@johnfraser,

You wrote: " ... As I read it for the 4th time I was in fact thinking 'so what's the difference'? :-) ... "

Following is a gross schematic of relative point placements that distinguishes SHARPS from SIDEWAYS


snapshot


Hoping this helps a bit.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@johnfraser,

Assuming the MOST perfect form, in the SIDEWAYS anatomy, X's would return back up to the RED arrow, XX would retrace to XX level as well.

HOWEVER, C of A-B-C, or Y of W-X-Y, and Z of W-X-Y-XX-Z patterns would remain in the same stepped off manner as in SHARPS.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@johnrfraser - In addition to above scheme:

When looking at a "rationale" for a relative placement of Points, consider the following read:

- http://kondratieffwinter.com/mathematical_wave_principle.pdf
(a little heavy to digest, but offers a good review of the basic harmonics that shape point placement in a price field


And finally, here is a fair synopsis of Prechter's book, with very intelligent insight and commentaries - Very short, succinct and to the point:
- http://0101.nccdn.net/1_5/2bd/0f0/2a3/A.J.-Frost--Robert-Prechter---Elliott-Wave-Principle.pdf

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David thank you so much for all of the EW information…work (I’m a 3D artist by day…and most of the evening!) again has take precedence so I’ve yet to have opportunity to fully digest and rationalize it all, but I wanted to thank you for very kindly going to these lengths to post and demonstrate this theory. Really really appreciated.
Many thanks
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
------------------------------
$BTCUSD: IF/WHEN price resumes rally, monster bear walls at 560.40; Further highs depend on zone:

snapshot


via @tradingview
-----------------------------


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - DAILY:
snapshot




Traders,

Looking (quite optimistically) ahead, one has to remain cognizant of serious hurdles overhead, which have been brick-and-mortared down via significant institutional fingerprints.

First, there is likely to be a significant imposition on a structural basis of a deep bearish entrenchment at $560.40.

While we remain away from that level, it is best to remind oneself that in this business of predictive analysis and forecasting, one can only trade at the level lesser than from which analysis is made. That is, all and any analysis made at the DAILY level can only pertain to swing positions made at the H4 levels, and so on. So, I hope that the H4 analyses I provide would benefit the M15 trader most. Myself being a H4 dweller, I like to look at the levels below (M15 and above (daily), so as to enlarge the lit spot over such obscure exercise.

However, as a reminder - considering the discussion I have had with some traders - the analyses I offer are NOT trading recommendations. They are the results of a predictive/forecasting model which I have designed and been using for several years. It is often overlaid with other geometric analyses, such as classic pattern envelops, as well as some occasional trials at Elliott Wave skeletal projections, and skinned with rarer occult geometries from prop patterns I have discovered (Janus Pattern, Graet White Pattern, Euclid Pattern, Deep Shark Pattern).

However, I will always assume that my analyses are for intellectual reviews among experienced traders taking positions in financial market vehicles fueled by their own concocted mixture of expertise and intuitive knowledge. By comparison, my input should only act to prove us all right or wrong, so that all can be rectified into an enhanced knowledge of the market studies.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------
$BTCUSD hit M15 target @ 523.79 dead-on; Holding for forecast reversal; Will it?

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin
---------------------


snapshot



Crypto'ers,

So far, forecast target got hit right in the eye. Expecting a potential brad sweep to the downside. This should allow institutional players to scoop the poop from scared-out weak-hands and turn it into a fertilizing fuel for their bulls.

We'll see.

David
+3 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nice David :-)
Reply
bitsunrise 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Spot on!
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I'm buying fear, bring it on :D
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
20 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------
$BTCUSD sets BACA condition @511 structure; A-B-C emerges

snapshot


via @tradingview | #bitcoin
----------------------


snapshot


David
+2 Reply
LastBattle 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I love how fast this market is moving. Keep it up! Thanks.
+1 Reply
johnrfraser 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I see :-) Only action out of 511 can tell us how to interpret the wave structure that preceded it :-)
+1 Reply
johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
Understanding your earlier comments now re EW requiring constant reiteration depending on the price action that plays out :-)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
You'll go crazy focusing on EW, try to analyze s/r levels, and volume action in those moves, as well as volatility and momentum and you'll do fine.
Reply
johnrfraser IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks IvanLabrie :-) good point...might switch back to basics for a fresh outlook...
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO johnrfraser
2 years ago
I've had great success with basic stuff that measures direction, volatility and volume.
Hard to trade btcusd short term though, but definitely worth it.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
21 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
--------------------
$BTCUSD needs BACA < 511.00 to start corrective decline to targets:

snapshot


via @www.tradingview | #bitcoin $BTC #litecoin
-------------------


snapshot



Traders,

The recent candles have been the deepest incursion attempted by BTC/Bitstamp ever since the recent bullish impulse. As indicated in the recent analyses, a corrective decline is (over-) due. While price consolidated by wounding around the recent 523.79 forecast target, the recent testing below the 511.00 structure might herald a temporary bearish strength.

As indicated before, price could very well decline all the way down to the 452.56-to-461.66 "Pink" zone. However, significant hurdles exist ahead of this probable reversal point, or two quantitative targets, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 496.35 - 21 AUG 2014

and

2 - TG-2 = 481.92 - 21 AUG 2014


While these levels are drawn a possible hurdles, only a bullish counter-offensive could sustain price above any of these levels, which would most likely require a heavy-handed constitutional intervention. In my opinion, such intervention is more likely to interfere and upset bulls at this time, as it would merely benefit from a good weak-hand-shaking event, the likes and the depth that would give bulls a chance to smell that pink zone for one last time (at risk of being too optimistic and voicing a rare humane voice over that of my predictive/forecasting model).

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
minbari PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
> smell that pink zone
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
:D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Looking at your target, they seem to correspond to the significant Fib values of 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618 - Is this what you are sharing in your chart?

The issue I have had in the past using price-based targeting, even with the sensible use of Fibonacci levels, is that price would rarely hit it right at that level.

If I overlay these 0.382, 0.500 and 0.618 levels with the ones defined by the model (which are defined outside of the price field), then they would perfection alternate and miss each by the widest available margin, in the sense where there would be almost the same equal space achieved as TG-1 falls right between 0..382 and 0.500, and TG-2 falls right between 0.500 and 0.618.

Banks and institutional traders know exactly where all and any trader post their traders, Stop-Losses and Take-Profit orders, and most of these are based on Fib. Algos also work at these mathematical levels, therefore, it might be best to "front" any trade with a system that takes consideration of spread plus a small margin of error.

For instance, I recommend to use 0.618 + spread (per trader's institutional pricing) + a safety margin (say, 2-3 additional pips) in order to get in or out of a trade.

The model itself has built a different set of conditions, in order to define the reversal levels, S/R the best it can, knowing that it is constantly being "looked at" by algos and much smarter trading boxes.

Anyway, I appreciate your posting your chart. Please, do so anytime. I hope the comment I made here pertained to what you meant to share.

David Alcindor
- David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for the reply, I agree.
My targets are areas, not specific prices.
I use a combined approach taking into account volume and price, and time spent at prices. Fib is just a complement, and it tends to match the model.
It's interesting that my analysis matches yours in this case. Maybe I'm doing a few things right. Seeing price at 493 at BTC-E is reassuring.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
21 AUG 2014 - Update/Note:

Just really cannot commit to a bearish move ... Needs at least TWO small candles, or a very obvious large deep one below the 511.00 level before we may consider it a possible corrective decline:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
22 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------------------
$BTCUSD broke thru 511; Opens floor to forecast targets 496 and 481

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #forex #litecoin
-------------------------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
22 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------
$BTCUSD: Is a #elliottwave TZ underway?

snapshot


via @tradingview: Example of a TZ:
-
EW
| #bitcoin
---------------------


snapshot



Traders,

A few day ago, I posted a simplified schematic of Elliott Wave's corrective patterns, of which 2 were the subjects of the discussion: Sharps and Sideways - See below for a visual of the simplified schematics of these corrective waves, as well as this link to the discussion:
EW
). Although there are 2 more geometric patterns among this corrective pattern group (i.e.: 2 triangles, one expanding and one contracting), they have been omitted in the discussion for the sake of simplification.

- Elliott Wave's Corrective Patterns: Sharps and Sideways:
snapshot


In this particular $BTCUSD case, the most probable geometric development underway is a Triple Zig-Zig ("TZ"), consistent with the corrective move following the recent trek up and termination of Elliott Wave's 5-Wave impulse at Point-5 = recent higher high.

Therefore, the interest at this point is to define the next SWING point, which will reveal itself at the level where Point-Z terminates its W-Y-Z structure. And this will likely mark a significant springboard for the battered bulls.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
$BTCUSD - M15: Connection The Dots ... W-Y-Z Consolidation:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
ChimbOt PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
practice time
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ChimbOt
2 years ago
River water is flowing once again ...

... Van is getting juiced up now.

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
* * * RE-POST: $BTCUSD - M15: Connection The Dots ... W-Y-Z Consolidation: * * *
(sorry for the recent incomplete image - Internet temporarily down)


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
This choppy price area is confusing me :(
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
@Jameve - Do you see any correlation btw what is going on right now and any one of these patterns following?


EW



I will assume that you don't, so that I can be as detailed in the following comment as possible. Before that, I will make a few assumptions:

1 - Price is currently recovering from rally, which in EW's speak would be an impulse ("IMP");
2 - The recovery is organized in a larger wave pattern, called a corrective wave, running AGAINST the main rally, so its course will be downward;
3 - This downward recovery is patterned by a series of zig-zags ("ZZ"), where a single one would simply be named A-B-C, whereas a more complex would be TWO ZZ's (or Double ZZ, "DZ"), and a most complex would be THREE ZZ's (or Triple ZZ, "TZ");
4 - The TZ is assumed to be underway, and is characterized by a cascading of its W, Y, and Z letters when the correction runs DOWN, as in this case;
AND
5 - This corrective pattern, which we are assuming is called a TZ should conclude at Point-Z, which remains pending at this time.

Note that ALL of the letters are connected by internal zig-zags as well, such that Wave-W, Y and Z will each contain their own ZZ.

This should thus lead to the following geometric SPECULATION:


snapshot



Now, I can already hear the Junior trader whine at this moment of utter confuscation, saying: "Yeah, bah, that's the problem, right here ... T's says 'speculation' ..."

My reply usually is to say that there is no 100% certainty, but if you have walked in the dark in your own home, you will have a better probability of getting your steps right, than if you did so in your neighbor's home if you never visited the place at all.

Meaning that given a LIMITED variety of patterns existing within this system (there are only FOUR to know in any and all corrective segment of a full EW cycle), then one stands a good chance to get it right at a higher degree than if there were 6, 10, or 15, or worse: if that Junior trader had none to work with at all - Would anyone concur?

In this particular case, we have noted the following:

1 - The recent 523.79 forecast has held and been used as a bullish rejection level;
2 - Such rejections have caused price to carve lower highs at
-- 1) The recent high @ 534.14
-- 2) Point-X
-- 3) PointsXX
3) Of the four patterns existing in corrective waves, only ONE hunches downward ... Let's look at it again:

EW



The one that comes to sight most conformedly is the TZ, hence the projections I have included in my chart, as follows:


snapshot



Whether this turns out to be right or wrong is not as important at this point as having a grip on tangible tools. Mining for gold down the dim-lit tunnel and not finding Gold does not make the pick the wrong tool to use - Again, we are dealing with probability, and that is perhaps why we are all stuck with loving what we do: It reflects all the aleatories and occult events we encounter in real life, except that here, we have a pick for it.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I appreciate your reply, thorough as always! A correction does seem probable but this is bitcoin and this choppy region has me on edge. I was not too keen on those corrective wave patterns you pointed out so I appreciate your insight!
Reply
Intuit PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hey David! Great information you got there I really appreciate it! I've been follow you for awhile and I just started recently trying to chart Elliot Waves so this information really helpful! It also confirms my earlier intuitions about EW too. I love the chart too it seems to match up nicely with my EW/Fib prediction from this morning :) Thanks the posts!
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Intuit
2 years ago
@Scamcoins - Excellent. EW allows for some slight differences among traders, depending on the timeframe being used. I usualy stick to M15, H4 and DAILY for the most part, and I use no more than 3 degrees of depth (i.e.: typically Primary, intermediate and minor degrees) - I appreciate your posting. Feel free to post whenever you perceive a discrepancy between m charting, yours and others, as there is always a room for error, and some for continuous learning.

Thank you!

David Alcindor
+1 Reply