Can't say that the market for did not overeact. It hit our target (See a replay here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/R5QGZThQ/) on its way to the 100, and waived us good bye a second time on its way back to 700, all at the speed of light - sort of.
As of today, I am not sure I want to risk another chance of providing another forecast. The one above was right in terms of direction at time when uncertainty prevailed, and while it hit our target, it went way past what we would have ever ventured to forecast. But, that's the nature of illiquid and volatile markets.
In fact, if you looked at our BTCUSD-(MTGOX) chart, price did act quite bearishly past the "Conversion Line", but it did not hit a level we would have defined anywhere close to what occurred. In fact, we would have been surpassed here as well - See BTCUSD (GOX) chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/lJoPvzyZ/
Also, looking at the LTCBTC chart, what strike us most is the fact that the retained some balance in its evolution by not reflecting the neurotic sways in price seen in the BTCUSD or the LTCUSD alone (see it here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/PMEVX3nb/). Could it be that a common disruptor may have been the USD denominator, rather than the LTC and alone? In any case, many conclusion can be drawn from the week-end event, but one should remain aware that this market is heavily manipulated and therefore quite difficult to forecast.
In this current weekly chart, we decided to highlight dominant momental lines, with their medians, as well as top and bottom borders. As in the case of other currencies demonstrated last week (See EURCAD here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/JFEKR8HK/ as well as a variation here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/veXMkrLi/), these lines can sometimes help the trader understand the otherwise erratic motion of price.
When looking at channel interplay, we recommend paying particular attention to:
1) price validation of one channel over another;
2) price transitioning from one channel to another;
and 3) price's relative position in the medians of the validated channel, i.e.: whether a price expresses gravity and a potential outlook as it weighs down at a lower median of a , or whether price expresses levity and a potential outlook as it is perched at a loftier median of a - That'd be breaking 990.00.
Can price really do this? Well, look at what just happened and wonder which is closest at this point?
In this particular weekly chart, I would look for next week's action, if and when price is able to remain within the confines of the , offering the expectant trader a look-back period when this week-end low would represent the last of a validation. However, for this to occur, price must first bounce from the bottom of the at worst, or at best, carve out a new higher-high relative to the high defined 5 candles ago.
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:
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Also, because of illiquidity of the market, I use only the closing prices for analysis (on 1w, 1d, 4h and 1h charts) and don't care about price fluctuations within the time periods. Look at my chart:
BTW, that drop to $102 on BTCE was recovered in 1 minute. So we just can forget about it, like nothing happened.
Hi David. Another very useful chart - thank you! 2 points if I may: 1. Using Bitstamp https://www.tradingview.com/e/RNvkQadz/ would show a much more realistic low price of 530 on February 10. If you have the time a Bitstamp analysis similar to the above would be tremendously helpful. 2. The common factor you describe is MtGox stopping BTC withdrawals and using the excuse that a glitch with the BTC protocol that's been known about for ages could allow fraud. This has now been refuted by BTC experts and appears to be MtGox making excuses for their own incompetence / financial difficulties (they've been shaky for a while), but it did spook a lot of BTC holders. Some of us managed to pick up more BTC at bargain prices during the panic! I had set a range of buy limit orders for just such a dip, so I picked up bargains in my sleep. Looking at BTC long term, I've found this vid very informative:
Bitcoin 101 - Why Bitcoin's Growth is Normal & The S-Curves You Could Never See
Thanks again and best wishes, Nick
I personally do not trade any bitcoin currency, but offer predictive analyses and forecasts to traders here as an exercise and demonstration of this peculiar field of technical analysis.
For each bitcoin/litecoin chart I offer, I receive well developed feedback suggesting that we look at another exchange. Starting with GOX, we were asked to look into BTC-e, and then to Bitstamp. We have since charted all three exchanges. Once that was done, we received yet another request about another obscure request with all compelling evidences that we looked into it - that exchange was not available here at TradingView, but we would have obliged quite gladly.
I do understand that traders have a very specific interest in one exchange over another, which is why we have already provided various analyses on all available exchanges here at TV: MTGOX, BTC-e and Bitstamp. From our "observatory deck" here, we are more interested in the predictive analysis and forecasting of this interesting market as a whole, and turning our eyes to, say BTC-e, systematically wakes the desire of other exchange species to provide all the support there is to justify that price would reveal a better view of the market compared to another. However, we have yet to discover any irregularity in points, direction or forecast that could not fit or be justified in our analysis. My point is that all exchanges have provided us with verifiable and justifiable points, and had we traded one over another exchange, we would not have perceived the discrepancy you are referring to.
Nonetheless, here is a Bitstamp data-generated chart I just put together at your request - Based on a same analysis applied to any price-moving asset (Forex, stocks, indices, ... etc), the result points to a trend that remains bearish with a probable target underneath, as defined herein: https://www.tradingview.com/e/mqPVYXit/ .
If you have any question, feel free to reply here on in private.