Momental Channels Interplay | #BTCUSD #LTCBTC #bitcoin #litecoin
Friends,
Can't say that the market for Bitcoin did not overeact. It hit our target (See a replay here: www.tradingview.com/v/R5QGZThQ/) on its way to the 100, and waived us good bye a second time on its way back to 700, all at the speed of light - sort of.
As of today, I am not sure I want to risk another chance of providing another forecast. The one above was right in terms of direction at time when uncertainty prevailed, and while it hit our target, it went way past what we would have ever ventured to forecast. But, that's the nature of illiquid and volatile markets.
In fact, if you looked at our BTCUSD-(MTGOX) chart, price did act quite bearishly past the "Conversion Line", but it did not hit a level we would have defined anywhere close to what occurred. In fact, we would have been surpassed here as well - See BTCUSD (GOX) chart here: www.tradingview.com/e/lJoPvzyZ/
Also, looking at the LTCBTC chart, what strike us most is the fact that the retained some balance in its evolution by not reflecting the neurotic sways in price seen in the BTCUSD or the LTCUSD alone (see it here: www.tradingview.com/e/PMEVX3nb/). Could it be that a common disruptor may have been the USD denominator, rather than the LTC and BTC alone? In any case, many conclusion can be drawn from the week-end event, but one should remain aware that this Bitcoin market is heavily manipulated and therefore quite difficult to forecast.
In this current weekly chart, we decided to highlight dominant momental lines, with their medians, as well as top and bottom borders. As in the case of other currencies demonstrated last week (See EURCAD here: www.tradingview.com/e/JFEKR8HK/ as well as a variation here: www.tradingview.com/e/veXMkrLi/), these lines can sometimes help the trader understand the otherwise erratic motion of price.
When looking at channel interplay, we recommend paying particular attention to:
1) price validation of one channel over another;
2) price transitioning from one channel to another;
and 3) price's relative position in the medians of the validated channel, i.e.: whether a price expresses gravity and a potential bearish outlook as it weighs down at a lower median of a bearish channel, or whether price expresses levity and a potential bullish outlook as it is perched at a loftier median of a bullish channel - That'd be breaking 990.00.
Can price really do this? Well, look at what just happened and wonder which is closest at this point?
OVERALL:
In this particular weekly chart, I would look for next week's action, if and when price is able to remain within the confines of the bullish channel, offering the expectant trader a look-back period when this week-end low would represent the last of a bearish validation. However, for this to occur, price must first bounce from the bottom of the bullish channel at worst, or at best, carve out a new higher-high relative to the high defined 5 candles ago.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:
www.tradingview.com/e/GK5wJ5WN/
---------------------------
- Follow us on Twitter: @4xForecaster
- See our live charts on TradingView.com: 4xForecaster
- Our social history is on Facebook: www.4xQuad.com
Recent forecast hits:
1 - #USDollar: on.fb.me/19Pf77y
2 - #AUDUSD: on.fb.me/1kDHbdB
3 - #NGAS: on.fb.me/1aSMYHV
More archived here: bit.ly/16JMnH8
---------------------------------
Disclaimer: All of our analyses are for educational purpose only. The forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are not trading recommendations. We trust that you would do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional and enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - a.k.a.: 4xForecaster | 4xQuad, LLC.
Can't say that the market for Bitcoin did not overeact. It hit our target (See a replay here: www.tradingview.com/v/R5QGZThQ/) on its way to the 100, and waived us good bye a second time on its way back to 700, all at the speed of light - sort of.
As of today, I am not sure I want to risk another chance of providing another forecast. The one above was right in terms of direction at time when uncertainty prevailed, and while it hit our target, it went way past what we would have ever ventured to forecast. But, that's the nature of illiquid and volatile markets.
In fact, if you looked at our BTCUSD-(MTGOX) chart, price did act quite bearishly past the "Conversion Line", but it did not hit a level we would have defined anywhere close to what occurred. In fact, we would have been surpassed here as well - See BTCUSD (GOX) chart here: www.tradingview.com/e/lJoPvzyZ/
Also, looking at the LTCBTC chart, what strike us most is the fact that the retained some balance in its evolution by not reflecting the neurotic sways in price seen in the BTCUSD or the LTCUSD alone (see it here: www.tradingview.com/e/PMEVX3nb/). Could it be that a common disruptor may have been the USD denominator, rather than the LTC and BTC alone? In any case, many conclusion can be drawn from the week-end event, but one should remain aware that this Bitcoin market is heavily manipulated and therefore quite difficult to forecast.
In this current weekly chart, we decided to highlight dominant momental lines, with their medians, as well as top and bottom borders. As in the case of other currencies demonstrated last week (See EURCAD here: www.tradingview.com/e/JFEKR8HK/ as well as a variation here: www.tradingview.com/e/veXMkrLi/), these lines can sometimes help the trader understand the otherwise erratic motion of price.
When looking at channel interplay, we recommend paying particular attention to:
1) price validation of one channel over another;
2) price transitioning from one channel to another;
and 3) price's relative position in the medians of the validated channel, i.e.: whether a price expresses gravity and a potential bearish outlook as it weighs down at a lower median of a bearish channel, or whether price expresses levity and a potential bullish outlook as it is perched at a loftier median of a bullish channel - That'd be breaking 990.00.
Can price really do this? Well, look at what just happened and wonder which is closest at this point?
OVERALL:
In this particular weekly chart, I would look for next week's action, if and when price is able to remain within the confines of the bullish channel, offering the expectant trader a look-back period when this week-end low would represent the last of a bearish validation. However, for this to occur, price must first bounce from the bottom of the bullish channel at worst, or at best, carve out a new higher-high relative to the high defined 5 candles ago.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:
www.tradingview.com/e/GK5wJ5WN/
---------------------------
- Follow us on Twitter: @4xForecaster
- See our live charts on TradingView.com: 4xForecaster
- Our social history is on Facebook: www.4xQuad.com
Recent forecast hits:
1 - #USDollar: on.fb.me/19Pf77y
2 - #AUDUSD: on.fb.me/1kDHbdB
3 - #NGAS: on.fb.me/1aSMYHV
More archived here: bit.ly/16JMnH8
---------------------------------
Disclaimer: All of our analyses are for educational purpose only. The forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are not trading recommendations. We trust that you would do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional and enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - a.k.a.: 4xForecaster | 4xQuad, LLC.
