3k or less (posted above)
BTC has completed 3 Primary Waves down to $6k, with Primary Wave 2 being a bear trap at $17k. The euphoria since the bounce at $6k was the Primary Wave 4 retrace, completed as a 5-3-5 wave. The retrace bounced off the long term down (purple) that has been in place since Christmas. It has now moved into a new Primary 5 wave impulse down and has or is about to complete its Minor Wave 1. This may lead into an retrace to retest the before completing the rest of its waves down to around $3k. The chart shows the likely levels using standard EW theory and fib measurements. The $3k was a long term trading area during 2017 and seems like a realistic area to find support.
20k or more
BTC has completed a corrective set of waves down to $6k. The euphoria since the bounce at $6k has been justified because it has just entered the first of 5 impulse waves back up to and possibly beyond $20k. The current retrace is normal market behaviour after a doubling in value in just under 1 month. This has either completed its retrace or will continue down to between $6-8k before entering the big third wave up to $17k and beyond.
Side Way Price Movement
There is also a scenario that has no extremes and trades within a range over time, gradually breaking down the long term diagonal .
I sold out of all my coins a few days ago when I saw the latest wave up failing. I honestly have no idea which one will play out and do not want to bet big on either without managing my risk. I will likely look to short ahead of dips and buy again on the up waves. However, I will do this by closely monitoring the price action and accepting that I will have to use stop losses which will erode my portfolio value and will likely under perform either just selling or just hodl (Holding On for Dear Life). However, for my situation, I am comfortable accepting some under performance to insure against the oblivion.
For those not able to trade frequently it may be prudent to either sell out now or wait for the next retrace and sell out at that point. Then wait for the long term to be clearly broken with a new impulse wave. There will be a trade off on upside for this but it will offer protection from the 3k scenario. However, this could be difficult to manage if the Side Wway Price Movement scenario unfolds.
BTC has completed two sets off 5 impulses down and has put in place a double bottom. This has given strength to the bulls, but it is now consolidating around the local high at 9600. This may go on to break up but I would not be looking to add a trade at this stage because there is no logical stop and the risk reward does not stack up.
It is reasonable to expect a retrace again to between 0.5 and 0.718 and I would be looking to enter a buy trade at this point on a clear sign of a reversal (1HR TM). My Stop would be under the local 8.4k low / double bottom. This would trigger a cancelling of the buy + a short.
I am also looking to enter a sell / short at around 11k (between 0.5 and 0.718) retrace of this bear structure. In terms of an EW structure, this would represent a simple A (11-8.4) B (8.4-11k) C (7k). The stop and buy would be a breakout of the 11.7k double top.
This is high risk trading and I will be doing this using stops with support from structure. The stops may mean I erode my portfolio and the structure means I may miss out on some potential trades. This works for my trading plan and I am willing to accept that.
It is more likely to reverse earlier at 10k but I will not trade this because the stop would need to be in the same place (11.8k) and the risk reward not high enough.
It may have completed the retrace and be entering a new bear wave down with a small retrace on it. In that case I would look to buy the break out at around 8.2k.
Given this, I will be looking to short in two places. The first is a break below 8800, which is the recent low and would be the top of this first Minor Wave 1. The second is a break below 8300, the low of this complete bear structure.
Stop: just above the grey diagonal up trend line (e.g. 9200)
Stop : 8855
Short term target is now 7300-7400.
My next trade will be when I see a completion of an ABC from the recent wave down to 7.2k. Leg A is done. B may just consolidate around these 8.2-8.4k or will preferably retrace to around 7.7k. I'll adjust my target short once I see what happens with this B leg.