Bitcoin: B Leg Of Wave 2?

After probing the 19K area low, Bitcoin appears to be "bullish" again. That is if you tend to "react" to price information. The 20K break is significant on the broader time horizon AND further confirms the idea that Bitcoin is in the midst of a Wave 2 correction. Two things I will point out in this article: how to evaluate Wave 2 AND how to maintain an EFFECTIVE mindset for this type of environment.

First, the mindset. If you are still fooled by unqualified "experts" that claim charts tell them the future, well, you get what you pay for. Back in January, every "expert" and their cousin was saying Bitcoin 40K. If you bought into that idea, you had the pleasure of watching price peak at 25K and then test 19K. I guess the chart "pros" were not able to account for the recent banking problems that came out of no where.

My point is: IF you instead accepted that markets are HIGHLY random, you would realize that there is no way to know if Bitcoin will be at 40K in a few months. Charts do NOT account for unexpected news whether positive or negative. Scrutinize the situation by evaluating things like price structure and levels. These factors alone will AT LEAST help you have a better gauge of RISK compared to listening to unaccountable cowards who hide behind fake names.

By evaluating structure, levels and patterns I was able to share a short swing trade idea at 24,150 with a price target that I shared AT THE TIME of the trade idea (3 weeks ago), of 20,150. When this trade reached 22K, I suggested moving the stop to break even, and lock in some profit. Price never retraced back to the entry, and is now a locked in profit (my members can confirm all of this). This trade idea was simply the result of knowing price structure, probabilities, risk and maintaining an OPEN mind (NO opinions). No magical strategy, oscillators or any other retail NONSENSE.

Now lets get into the current situation and wave count. After the 5 Wave completion at 25K, I warned that a broader Wave 2 correction is likely to follow. If you know the rules of the Waves, you know that it is possible for Wave 2 to correct 100% of Wave 1. That opens the possibility of a 16K retest in this case. For this Wave 2 idea to be negated, price will NEED to clear the 24K AREA. So KEEP EXPECTATIONS REALISTIC if you are attempting to buy this bullish retrace.

If the current bullish retrace fails somewhere between here and 24K, it is may be a B Wave, which can be followed by a bearish C Wave. This is NOT a forecast. This is a potential scenario to be watching for.

If the short term momentum transitions to bullish from here, I will look for a swing trade LONG on the next pullback. I am not going to react to the initial move that we are potentially seeing now. Again I need to see confirmations, levels and setups before I can justify risk. Longs should be short term oriented in light of the current macro economic environment.

Speaking of economics: Chairman Powell continues to assert the idea that the central bank will continue to raise rates. While the recent reaction in the bond market seems to counter this fact, it is still something that "investors" should not ignore. A rising rate environment LIMITS near term potential for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Listen to Powell NOT Santa Claus. This adds weight to the Wave 2 scenario, not the nonsensical "expert" technical forecasts. Just something to think about.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.