jollyjoker747
Long

It's not rocket science - Master BTC Edition

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Fractals can be misleading, we see many of them from both bulls and bears. Trusting a fractal is always tricky, but this here sure looks like the best weekly BTC fractal in a while.

1. BTC breaks the downtrend line with a rally to the 50MA
2. Price reverses at the 50MA and goes down to retest the downtrend line
3. The downtrend line now acts as a support, we make a higher-low and it all begins again


P.S. IMO The BTC cycle seems to accelerate itself (either linear or exponential), so I suspect that the fractal will complete faster and the new ATH would be lower than the one suggested on the chart!
Comment: I have no idea if the market will reverse and head to the 3000 area at the 50MA, I also don't know if there will be a reverse there at all.
BTC seems to be heavily overbought, but big volume kicks in, so the chart above can only be used as a reference to last bottom and the following bull run. Such reference can provide 1:1 accuracy or a totally wrong prediction - in both cases comparing present movement with a historic one can be used to draw some conclusions, that can provide helpful background to our other trading mechanisms.

For now, I expect price to reach the 50MA (5700-5800 area) and will watch price-action around the MA to see if it reverses or we break it upward.
I'd like to see a retest of lows before a move higher

Reply
Really well made!
Reply
Couldn't agree more! And past RSI behavior validates it. I am re-buying on a -30% retrace.

+1 Reply
i actually think this is a bit more complex than rocket science.
It has the human / sentiment / psychology dimension. trust me.
+2 Reply
Let's see how it goes!


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