I expected Btc to move higher last Wednesday/Thursday Night, but instead of that it took two hard beats without real bonces. It looked like the first down move again was an unnatural move which could be triggered because of:
Whales filled their shorts in the days before and began to sell -> break out traders joined => leveraged longs began to stop out and pushed the whole mess down.
So we are now in a range between 3650 and 3750 for some days. There was always some support below 3680 and also some resistance above 3720 - both directions without real . It could be a sign that the big boys are waiting until Monday for open Markets and more and begin then the next move.
I think it is totally impossible to predict who this move will loke like as it seems to be very easy for big players and their Telegram Groups to trigger up or down moves with combined just some 1000 Btcs and then the long or short squeeze will do the rest for them. So its 50:50 and traditional TA beyond is not really helpful - especially Fibs, Eliots etc...
My feelings are that they are not finished yet with us and will initiate a short squeeze with a potential wick up to 4000, sell then immediately down to 3880 and then we continue some days in a range around 3800 / 3900 . Saturday night is manipulation night (yesterday surprisingly not) and they could initiate a long squeeze and then Monday 21.01. the big breakdown. We have not yet seen capitulation yet - but eventually it will never come. There are just not enough retail Btc holders anymore and in the worst case the big boys will play this game down to 1000$.
Thats the plan I will stick to. Long for very short term: Small position with SL around 3600 and TP around 3950 /4000. After that I would open a small short position.
Good luck everybody out there and may the force be with you.
First, I didnt expect the drop on the 13th January. But the surge on Monday 14th was there, but way to weak and failed. Finally on January 19 we reached the 3880 - without the wick to the 4000 and droped then hard just one day later.
The fact that we droped on Jan 13 and did not even came close to 4000 on Jan 19 tells me that the market seems to be much weaker as expected and the big buy boys were almost completely absent as this happend without large volume.
So, as Longs are still very high and shorts low - we could see a huge drop now and squeeze the all the longs out.
Good luck everybody out there.