Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin remains below its 2021 highs. This means that despite halving, despite the hype, despite the ETFs, Bitcoin has not made a new high in more than 3 years.
This does NOT mean that BTC has topped. I still place a 75% probability that the current bull trend which started at the Nov 2022 low is only halfway done -- and that a move to $135,000 or so by Sep 2025 will occur.
Can we argue that BTC is just pausing while buyers sweep up the last of the positions from weak owners -- and that an upward thrust is just around the corner? Of course this is a possibility -- all things are possible with Bitcoin.
Yet, the failure of BTC to get back on track will only increase the odds I place that a more sizable correction (perhaps to $40k or so) is underway.
This does NOT mean that BTC has topped. I still place a 75% probability that the current bull trend which started at the Nov 2022 low is only halfway done -- and that a move to $135,000 or so by Sep 2025 will occur.
Can we argue that BTC is just pausing while buyers sweep up the last of the positions from weak owners -- and that an upward thrust is just around the corner? Of course this is a possibility -- all things are possible with Bitcoin.
Yet, the failure of BTC to get back on track will only increase the odds I place that a more sizable correction (perhaps to $40k or so) is underway.