xprojoepzz

BTC "Xi" short squeeze candle, Range till EOY

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BYBIT:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We just had a massive short squeeze, some great traders predicting weeks in advance for this "Xi" candle to come, followed by massive downside. You can see this exact scenario in October 2019, I've decided to take this scenario, but fractal the future it had. You can see we'll have downside to ~$24kish soon, double bottom on $24k. Then a slow build up to re-test the top of the range ~$40k near the end of the year, followed by slow, and then massive downside again, after which we will resume the bull run and finally break above the range early 2022.
Comment: What's even better is some people assume this move was made by the fake Amazon news, so that would even further stimulate the big drop to come when the realization hits that the news is fake, for retail investors that is.
Comment: fucking perfect daily close fractal too, the wick covers more than half of the daily candle when it closed, just like in October 2019. Chart explains what the following candles did, you can pan back in my chart to see the red circle of the fractal with the same daily close as we just had.
Comment: early, but not wrong so far. Have us consolidate high, let longs build, now longs are trapped. Will be interesting seeing this play out. I'd say it's invalidated if we break above $42.6k again. See my newer prediction as reference.

Comments

love the analysis, I doubt the covid dump happens again and takes us to 14k tho that was a black swan for sure
+1 Reply
xprojoepzz Tsutton57
@Tsutton57, I agree, but I wouldn't say it can't happen. We're unsure what fundamental future awaits us, if during this range everyone keeps hoping for institutional adoption that doesn't seem to be coming, Amazon denies, Apple doesn't invest.

Exchanges are deleveraging such as FTX and Binance, many people argue this was what made crypto so volatile and exciting, the extreme leverage, what if all exchanges start deleveraging and it leads people to believe we needed that leverage in order to have enough money to bring the marketcap up? What if deleveraging is in preparation of an extreme regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrencies to come in the future, could that be the fundamental that drops us that far?

Point being, the fundamentals still have a fair chance at making something like it happen, I would not say it's likely though, and I probably wouldn't count on it myself unless such fundamentals come into play. Double bottom on $24k at the moment seems more reasonable as the absolute bottom, but who really knows I suppose.
Reply
Interesting fractal
+1 Reply