Welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show again,
Before I start this TA, I would like to thank you for those PM me and said thank you. That was the motivation for me to continue to post my ideas. So, once again, thank you.
Now, let’s look at the graph, if you have seen my updated idea yesterday, I have showed you the possibility of the formation of a symmetrical triangle (continuation). It looks like the triangle is indeed in play. In order for the symmetrical triangle to be valid, the following criteria have to be met:
1. 4x points – 2x trendlines formed by 2 points each. Point C should be lower than point A while point D should be higher than point B (tick)
2. Trend – a trend should have been established which, in this case, is the short-term bullish trend (tick)
3. Volume - the volume has been declining during this symmetrical triangle formation. That is a signal that the pattern is legitimate (tick)
As you can see, the above criteria are met.
In respect of the FIBO set up, I have amended it slightly from my previous FIBO set up. The reasons for this change are:
1. From the price action, it looks like BTC has been bouncing between fib retrace 0.236 & 0.618 of my new FIBO set up for the past 5 days. Further, if you look closely at the apex of the symmetrical triangle, the 0.5 fib retrace of the new FIBO set up sits exactly at the same price level as the apex of the symmetrical triangle.
2. In the beginning of March, the price of $9901.7 has been retested several times and proven the price level as resistance.
3. Given the current timeframe, by the time BTC reaches the top of the downtrend channel (in log scale), it should bump into the top of the downtrend channel @ around $9901.7. In saying that, my original target of $10139.1 could still be in play.
I still believe that my original idea of testing the top of downtrend channel (in log scale) is inevitable. If you have seen my original idea, you should know why. I have taken many indicators, the short-term & long-term trend, as well as the psychology of whales into play. In terms of the psychology of whales, think about this, how are the whales going to maximise their profits? When the price dropped to point B, a lot of buyers were scared and sold their long positions. Then, when the price dropped a second time to point D, more buyers sold their long positions afraid of price drop. Hence, if the price drops to $6000 now, are the whales going to maximise their profits? Certainly not. The people who HODL should still HODL even if the price drop to $6000 now. The way to maximise their profits is to pump the price up, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle to the upside, and then breaking out of the top of downtrend channel (in linear scale). This way, a lot of buy orders will come in, and the whales can start another run of dumping BTC.
Further, I want to mention about the inverse H&S that a lot of traders pointed out. To me, it doesn't really matter whether the inverse H&S is valid or not. What is important is the breakout of the 'true' downtrend channel in the log scale.
PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND - there is still a chance of BTC dropping to $6000 now. If the symmetrical triangle does not hold, a test of the 0.618 fib retrace @ $8250.9 will be in play. So, the safer option now is to wait for the breakout of the symmetrical triangle, either to the upside or downside. When I say the breakout of a pattern, it usually means that the 4hr candle has to “close” 3%+- of the pattern.
Taiwan Bear
*********************
Please note this is for education purposes only. Please trade rationally.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
Before I start this TA, I would like to thank you for those PM me and said thank you. That was the motivation for me to continue to post my ideas. So, once again, thank you.
Now, let’s look at the graph, if you have seen my updated idea yesterday, I have showed you the possibility of the formation of a symmetrical triangle (continuation). It looks like the triangle is indeed in play. In order for the symmetrical triangle to be valid, the following criteria have to be met:
1. 4x points – 2x trendlines formed by 2 points each. Point C should be lower than point A while point D should be higher than point B (tick)
2. Trend – a trend should have been established which, in this case, is the short-term bullish trend (tick)
3. Volume - the volume has been declining during this symmetrical triangle formation. That is a signal that the pattern is legitimate (tick)
As you can see, the above criteria are met.
In respect of the FIBO set up, I have amended it slightly from my previous FIBO set up. The reasons for this change are:
1. From the price action, it looks like BTC has been bouncing between fib retrace 0.236 & 0.618 of my new FIBO set up for the past 5 days. Further, if you look closely at the apex of the symmetrical triangle, the 0.5 fib retrace of the new FIBO set up sits exactly at the same price level as the apex of the symmetrical triangle.
2. In the beginning of March, the price of $9901.7 has been retested several times and proven the price level as resistance.
3. Given the current timeframe, by the time BTC reaches the top of the downtrend channel (in log scale), it should bump into the top of the downtrend channel @ around $9901.7. In saying that, my original target of $10139.1 could still be in play.
I still believe that my original idea of testing the top of downtrend channel (in log scale) is inevitable. If you have seen my original idea, you should know why. I have taken many indicators, the short-term & long-term trend, as well as the psychology of whales into play. In terms of the psychology of whales, think about this, how are the whales going to maximise their profits? When the price dropped to point B, a lot of buyers were scared and sold their long positions. Then, when the price dropped a second time to point D, more buyers sold their long positions afraid of price drop. Hence, if the price drops to $6000 now, are the whales going to maximise their profits? Certainly not. The people who HODL should still HODL even if the price drop to $6000 now. The way to maximise their profits is to pump the price up, breaking out of the symmetrical triangle to the upside, and then breaking out of the top of downtrend channel (in linear scale). This way, a lot of buy orders will come in, and the whales can start another run of dumping BTC.
Further, I want to mention about the inverse H&S that a lot of traders pointed out. To me, it doesn't really matter whether the inverse H&S is valid or not. What is important is the breakout of the 'true' downtrend channel in the log scale.
PLEASE KEEP THIS IN MIND - there is still a chance of BTC dropping to $6000 now. If the symmetrical triangle does not hold, a test of the 0.618 fib retrace @ $8250.9 will be in play. So, the safer option now is to wait for the breakout of the symmetrical triangle, either to the upside or downside. When I say the breakout of a pattern, it usually means that the 4hr candle has to “close” 3%+- of the pattern.
Taiwan Bear
*********************
Please note this is for education purposes only. Please trade rationally.
Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
BTS is currently testing the 0.618 retrace @ around $8250, and has been attempted that support level several times in the last hour or so. What I also want you to notice is the RSI trendline. You can see that the RSI trendline is currently holding the BTC dropping further. This means that $8250 is a crucial support and if that level does not hold, it will likely to test the next support @ $8086.
Please do not trade until a clear signal is confirmed. The risk is too high to trade currently, whether you are shorting or going long.