Greetings All,
I decided to chart an average of the last two cycles going forward, using the average number of days to the highs and lows respectively, and high and low trendlines. This is a 1 week chart on the logarithmic scale.
The raw data that I used was:
Average number of days to cycle high: 448
Average number of days to cycle low: 941
Thus:
Expected date of current cycle high: November 11, 2021
Expected date of current cycle low: March 20, 2023
The blue vertical lines denote the halving cycles within one or two days, and the cycles that I used are the timeframes between those halving cycles.
Note that the huge gains of recent weeks (that many have called "unsustainable") have only just barely put us back above the trendline after the COVID breakdown.
I'm not going to discuss the price should it touch the high and low trendlines on the given dates, you can see that for yourself. (I have difficulty comprehending that such gains would be possible.)
Also take note of the volume in the previous two cycles as compared to the current cycle. Despite much media hype claiming BTC to be in a bubble, the volume is nowhere close to what it was in previous cycles.
Have a great day all.
I decided to chart an average of the last two cycles going forward, using the average number of days to the highs and lows respectively, and high and low trendlines. This is a 1 week chart on the logarithmic scale.
The raw data that I used was:
Average number of days to cycle high: 448
Average number of days to cycle low: 941
Thus:
Expected date of current cycle high: November 11, 2021
Expected date of current cycle low: March 20, 2023
The blue vertical lines denote the halving cycles within one or two days, and the cycles that I used are the timeframes between those halving cycles.
Note that the huge gains of recent weeks (that many have called "unsustainable") have only just barely put us back above the trendline after the COVID breakdown.
I'm not going to discuss the price should it touch the high and low trendlines on the given dates, you can see that for yourself. (I have difficulty comprehending that such gains would be possible.)
Also take note of the volume in the previous two cycles as compared to the current cycle. Despite much media hype claiming BTC to be in a bubble, the volume is nowhere close to what it was in previous cycles.
Have a great day all.
Comment:
I just realized that I reversed the colors of the support and resistance trendlines, and it's too late to edit the chart.
Comment:
Also, bear in mind that those dates are just to give one an idea of when the cycle high and low might occur, obviously they could vary significantly.