In this post I will try to provide my in-depth analysis of
BTCUSD
on weekly charts.
But before I do that, let me briefly describe my trading style.
I am a strong believer that 'less is more' and therefore I only trade when bigger market opportunities present themselves. I tend to stick to 1W and 1M charts (depending whether its stocks or crypto, and also depending on which one looks nicer), with ocassional glips at 3D & 1D charts, but I stay away from lower time frames.
Analysis
As you can see, 2013 Bear market truly kicked in when weekly candlestick closed below the Red Moving Average Line which is 1-year simple moving average. This is currently where we are at right now. If the manage to break below the white support line, the next real support level will be around $4328, which is 0.786 support and 2-year moving average price. If you aren't yet short on bitcoin, you might want to consider shorting once we break below the white support line and let it run until 0.786 support line.
If you are a bull, placing a buy order at 0.786 line is your best long-term bet as of right now.
What is likely to happen at 0.786 support line?
We will probably see a decent resistance around that level, and will most likely go for test of 0.618 line ($7600). Whether will we hit or not, I simply don't know. For the bears it might be a good idea to take some profit at the level, and for the bulls you might see some decent upward action at that point, so there might be a good trade set up with proper risk management.
Will it be the rock bottom?
I doubt. For long term investors I would suggest considering lower retracement levels such 0.886 ($2376) which is also a 4-year average price, and potentially 0.943 ($1254). If you take a look at previous cycle, the market has reversed at around 0.886 level, but from trading stocks, I do know that 0.943 is also a potential rock bottom level, so there you go.
Trade plan failure condition
As a trader you always need to have a Plan B in case your analysis fails. As of right now, the only valid condition I would consider for me to overlook my analysis, is if we start seeing weekly candles to closing above the orange line, which a 6 month moving average. If we get to that, I will be definetely providing more updates for this market.
“Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.” - Sun Tzu.
BTCUSD
on weekly charts. But before I do that, let me briefly describe my trading style.
I am a strong believer that 'less is more' and therefore I only trade when bigger market opportunities present themselves. I tend to stick to 1W and 1M charts (depending whether its stocks or crypto, and also depending on which one looks nicer), with ocassional glips at 3D & 1D charts, but I stay away from lower time frames.
Analysis
As you can see, 2013 Bear market truly kicked in when weekly candlestick closed below the Red Moving Average Line which is 1-year simple moving average. This is currently where we are at right now. If the manage to break below the white support line, the next real support level will be around $4328, which is 0.786 support and 2-year moving average price. If you aren't yet short on bitcoin, you might want to consider shorting once we break below the white support line and let it run until 0.786 support line.
If you are a bull, placing a buy order at 0.786 line is your best long-term bet as of right now.
What is likely to happen at 0.786 support line?
We will probably see a decent resistance around that level, and will most likely go for test of 0.618 line ($7600). Whether will we hit or not, I simply don't know. For the bears it might be a good idea to take some profit at the level, and for the bulls you might see some decent upward action at that point, so there might be a good trade set up with proper risk management.
Will it be the rock bottom?
I doubt. For long term investors I would suggest considering lower retracement levels such 0.886 ($2376) which is also a 4-year average price, and potentially 0.943 ($1254). If you take a look at previous cycle, the market has reversed at around 0.886 level, but from trading stocks, I do know that 0.943 is also a potential rock bottom level, so there you go.
Trade plan failure condition
As a trader you always need to have a Plan B in case your analysis fails. As of right now, the only valid condition I would consider for me to overlook my analysis, is if we start seeing weekly candles to closing above the orange line, which a 6 month moving average. If we get to that, I will be definetely providing more updates for this market.
“Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.” - Sun Tzu.