BTCUSD Long, relief rally to ATH or bull trap?

After this drawdown, BTC seems to be bottoming out near 40k to 35k from bullish divergences appearing.

I believe if we get support here around the 35k PoC levels around the chart, it'll increase the likelihood of an uptrend back toward at least 43k to 47k, another PoC. From there, it is 50/50 as to whether we'll head to overtaking the ATH or bottoming out near the 200W MA at 20k-25k. But a lack of it will allow us to see a 25k btc. For that reason, I set a tight stop loss of around 30k.

On-chain metrics like Reserve risk are nearing levels safe for entry to buy BTC.

Nonetheless, a good long-term DCA strategy would be to buy at every 5K below 40k from here on out, staying out of alts until we've broken out of the dashed yellow trendline.

Heatmap and Volume Profile charts:
imgur.com/a/0WXZHuk

Key levels to look out for:

Support
-33k-36k
-23k

Resistance
-47k
-Yellow Dashed trend line
- White solid trend line
- ATH
-100k
-200k

Invalidations
-28k

Comment:

An additional chart to look at:

We're currently near the red median line of a major fork developed since the ath, could be another area of support before heading higher. To see more on on it, it is linked below on related ideas

Comment:

Would even be surprised if we range between 60k and 30k for a while until we start a new market structure given how strange of a double top/rejection we had near 69k. Maybe we're seeing a contracting triangle pattern to shake out investors and reset the market of clown world gains for an uptrend to 100k+?

This idea could work out if the bullish invalidation level doesn't get hit, and we are attempting to complete wave 4 of 5 in this major uptrend.

Comment:

The red median line noted in the chart image above is about to get hit, expect major volatility soon. We got rejected at the PoC from the volume profile tool so I expect bears to take control for now until around 30k. Itd be funny to drop just a hair under 28k and get another massive rally to rekt both bears and bulls.

Comment:

Adjusted sl to today's low at 32.9k as there is a lot of confluence and bullish divergences here on daily+ timeframes. It will be hard to pull off a short here as I don't believe any rallies will come from retail $ or straight up buying from whales, but rather shorts covering their positions/short squeezes. I'm looking at the SPX/CPI level of 17.51 to make the short call on BTC, as long as it continues to correlate with the SPX.

Could be wrong and witness the greatest transfer of wealth from TradFi to Crypto, so navigate and DCA-in appropriately.

Comment:

We are now at risk of another leg down 1 hour before the FOMC’s press release. If we get another drop we must hold ~33k, or risk heading down to 20k. Hope for the best.

Comment:

closed the trade at 37k. short term invalidation level hit. there's a high likelihood of a drop. entering short now on related idea linked below

Comment:

For the next few weeks, if we close under 36k on a weekly candle, it'll confirm a bear market and make a drop to 20k look very possible, could hit as low as 17k.

Comment:

Will looking for longs on the bottom of the 30k/40k trading range until Monday open on NYSE.

Short term bearish pattern noted on the chart below failed to play out as well as breaking out of more than 5% above the yellow dotted trendline labeled "DOWNTREND" on the chart idea above

Trade active:

long at 42.8k, we have multiple confirmations of an uptrend be from 37k, 41.6k, and now 42.4k. Heiken Ashi weekly candles closed in the green and USDT dominance is now starting to fall significantly.

sl at 41k. we might be in the disbelief phase

Trade closed: stop reached:

sl hit. considering we've closed below the 50% retracement noted on the chart on a daily candle, the likelihood of a correction back down to the 30k levels is high if you consider the 45k local high as the end of a 3 wave move.

I suspect we'll at least range a bit more between 30k-40k for a while, with any weekly closes under 36k through the range increases the likelihood of seeing btc hit 20k. To be safe, one could enter a short ~41k, with a sl at ~46k, and tp at 36k, 32k, 28k, and 22k