Decrypt0

BTC - Most got it wrong

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello friends, followers & traders.

Last analysis didn't go our way, I think the majority did not expect the sudden turn in events. I managed to close my short position in a good time - as i was on leverage the so the drop was still profitable. After the correction Bitcoin proceeded to move higher - being fueled by the short squeeze which led to another subsequent rally. Bitcoin is acting a bit tricky now.

Facts:
  • Bitcoin is about to test the .782 retracement level from the recent high counted from the large bullish candle with the first stoppage from that candle - this could be resistive and a trigger for a broader correction.
  • Bitcoin has evidently found support at the 50-EMA, as we can see each time Bitcoin dropped below that point, it has moved back above shortly after since 19th of Februari.
  • Bitcoin may already have hit the bottom according to the Mayer Multiple Indicator a few days ago above 1 - this however doesn't mean that we won't see any corrections.
  • The tables have turned, from a 70/30 Bearish market sentiment, the current outlook has made a complete reverse to 77/24 Bullish to Bearish sentiment according to coinfarm (As of today 18th of April).

The current pattern of Bitcoin could be a bullish ascending-broadening wedge which very well could target the 5.9k level ( 1.618 extension ) drawn out from the same level which I've counted the .782 retracement from (marked purples lines). For this we need to test the 5600 level is the top of the ascending resistance, this seems to be a progress Bitcoin is working on right now.
But first we need to test- and push past the .782 retracement to conclude this as a possible event.


According to the volume profile (bars on the right side) we can see that the 5000-level has been established as a support and holds a decent buying interest as of now.
If this level would fall we could see a sharp decline in price as levels between 5000 and 4000 holds little to no support as of now. 4000 Remains the stronger level for buying interest.


According to the indicators and the current progress - I would conclude that there is still a bullish momentum that is possible to expand, albeit weakening right now.

Warnings
The 1 Day RSI remains just below being overbought.
The 1 Day MACD has made a bearish cross.

We might move a bit higher before we see the awaited correction.
The market is evaluating.

At this point in time, I'm not in a trade.

Feel free to join my telegram channel:
https :// t.me/de_crypt0

Happy Easter!
Comment: Another look on the chart made me realize that its highly likely that this could be a bullish ascending triangle as well! Good to take note.
Comment: For those who don't understand the comment above I have drawn out the proposed ascending pattern that is lining up with the 1.618 extension.
Trade closed: target reached: Nice nice.
Target met... What now?! We will take another peek into BTC.
I agree with the bullish ascending triangle. And your target. Classic technical analysis suggest it's a bear continuation pattern due to the nature of the trend. I'm sure you can agree the trend has been bear.
One other thing I'd like to add to note NVT is peaking. It has cooled off a bit but it will uptrend and drop hard to the green zone.

here to serve..
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Decrypt0 AdamFleish
@AdamFleish, Hey thanks for commenting. I'm completly with you what you're saying. I would not say its a fake out as BTC is completly overbought on most timeframes. A drop from here is nothing strange, on the contrary, a bullish continuation would be very surprising to say the least. My conclusion now is that we might see a final attempt to the target but it's not a guarantee. I see a re-test from the horizontal resistance 5.3k at the minimum. Most likely we will see liquidity pouring way deeper if it starts to break down. I quote from my analysis:

"According to the volume profile (bars on the right side) we can see that the 5000-level has been established as a support and holds a decent buying interest as of now.
If this level would fall we could see a sharp decline in price as levels between 5000 and 4000 holds little to no support as of now. 4000 Remains the stronger level for buying interest."
Reply
AdamFleish Decrypt0
@Decrypt0, argree.
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AdamFleish AdamFleish
@AdamFleish, agree 100%
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Decrypt0 AdamFleish
@AdamFleish, Target reached ! Well done to us :D
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AdamFleish Decrypt0
@Decrypt0, moving nicely as predicted! Hang on for about 6300 to 6400, could push up with fear moving out. Alts will fly... thanks again..

Here to serve..
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Decrypt0 AdamFleish
@AdamFleish, you are on the right track. I have a juicy trade that can be very profitable. For now see my latest BTC chart
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I think the CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition.

+1 Reply
Thanks for sharing your TA.
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Decrypt0 ForecastCity
@ForecastCity, You're welcome, thank you for your comment & Like
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