In 2018, I predicted a price of $396k for Bitcoin in 2021. I've been outspoken about this claim and have stuck by it for more than 3 years, because at the time when I made the prediction, I spent a lot of time generating it. I'm sticking by that prediction. And next spring, after the probable slowdown, I'll do the same analysis and predict for 2025 and stick with it just the same.
I added the first trend line (I'm calling it the Yellow Brick Road) I've added since 2018 in these last few days. It is hypothesis. Here's how I formed it, and my biases/assumptions on FUNDAMENTALS and not technical analysis:
1. The elimination of mining in China is a Black Swan event, not a fundamental indicator or invalidator of S2F (stock to flow model). Source: stats.buybitcoinworl....com/stock-to-flow/.
2. Reduction in the hashrate (www.coinwarz.com/min...coin/hashrate-chart, click ALL) directly correlates to price as a result of production and activity on the BTC network. Likewise, miners resuming "business as usual" will result in a recovery of price, and since current price matches hashrate value in May 2021, I believe we will see a positive correlation between hashrate and price in the coming weeks as more miners come online.
3. This market is more akin to 2013, wherein BTC dominance plays an outsized role against alts, and alts haven't yet formed a hyperbolic enthusiasm/Gartner signal. 2017 was rotten with ICOs, NFTs lost momentum a few months ago, and the geopolitical game is all about supply chain and underlying technologies.
4. Semiconductor and access to production (supply chain) is an ignored and misunderstood factor in Bitcoin price, and factors heavily in currency and technology valuations. I am investigating and writing an enormous series of articles which will be forthcoming on my Substack, for (mostly) free, or otherwise published as a non-fiction book in the next 2-3 years, and absolutely as a fiction book within the next 5: rorschach.subst...m/p/coming-soon?r=ospv0&am...
5. Recent reductions in leveraged trading platforms and volume have pushed investors to HODLing, but trading bots are still using the same algos. They have little impetus to change as long as subscribers are paying. My "yellow brick road to $396k" tracks the 4h curve on SMA (so far) quite precisely, and I think we can observe and validate this position in the coming weeks. So far--it is accurate as a minimum/rebound area.
6. Trading bots, evacuation of miners, FUD, etc are currently enhancing HODLers, while reducing speculation on a large scale (Aug 2021, subject to change). This means the floor is solid, whilst the buying is constant or increasing and FOMO will increase via social/media accounts.
7. Enormous inflation pressure from the current "Infrastructure" Bill in the US will exacerbate US inflation, leading younger/savvy investors to consider PoW-currencies. Most younger investors will choose hype over fundamentals, leading to alt-gains, but long term buying opps. PoW will likely be undervalued, and those interested in "money" will buy Bitcoin--worldwide, brand is important.
8. Emerging US political events this fall will push investors toward work-backed currencies, and I'm short on USD and CNY. My advice: prepare for savagery, the storm is coming.
In summary--lots happening. Buy Bitcoin if you believe in it, and if price falters, hold for a couple years at most. Thank me then. :D
I added the first trend line (I'm calling it the Yellow Brick Road) I've added since 2018 in these last few days. It is hypothesis. Here's how I formed it, and my biases/assumptions on FUNDAMENTALS and not technical analysis:
1. The elimination of mining in China is a Black Swan event, not a fundamental indicator or invalidator of S2F (stock to flow model). Source: stats.buybitcoinworl....com/stock-to-flow/.
2. Reduction in the hashrate (www.coinwarz.com/min...coin/hashrate-chart, click ALL) directly correlates to price as a result of production and activity on the BTC network. Likewise, miners resuming "business as usual" will result in a recovery of price, and since current price matches hashrate value in May 2021, I believe we will see a positive correlation between hashrate and price in the coming weeks as more miners come online.
3. This market is more akin to 2013, wherein BTC dominance plays an outsized role against alts, and alts haven't yet formed a hyperbolic enthusiasm/Gartner signal. 2017 was rotten with ICOs, NFTs lost momentum a few months ago, and the geopolitical game is all about supply chain and underlying technologies.
4. Semiconductor and access to production (supply chain) is an ignored and misunderstood factor in Bitcoin price, and factors heavily in currency and technology valuations. I am investigating and writing an enormous series of articles which will be forthcoming on my Substack, for (mostly) free, or otherwise published as a non-fiction book in the next 2-3 years, and absolutely as a fiction book within the next 5: rorschach.subst...m/p/coming-soon?r=ospv0&am...
5. Recent reductions in leveraged trading platforms and volume have pushed investors to HODLing, but trading bots are still using the same algos. They have little impetus to change as long as subscribers are paying. My "yellow brick road to $396k" tracks the 4h curve on SMA (so far) quite precisely, and I think we can observe and validate this position in the coming weeks. So far--it is accurate as a minimum/rebound area.
6. Trading bots, evacuation of miners, FUD, etc are currently enhancing HODLers, while reducing speculation on a large scale (Aug 2021, subject to change). This means the floor is solid, whilst the buying is constant or increasing and FOMO will increase via social/media accounts.
7. Enormous inflation pressure from the current "Infrastructure" Bill in the US will exacerbate US inflation, leading younger/savvy investors to consider PoW-currencies. Most younger investors will choose hype over fundamentals, leading to alt-gains, but long term buying opps. PoW will likely be undervalued, and those interested in "money" will buy Bitcoin--worldwide, brand is important.
8. Emerging US political events this fall will push investors toward work-backed currencies, and I'm short on USD and CNY. My advice: prepare for savagery, the storm is coming.
In summary--lots happening. Buy Bitcoin if you believe in it, and if price falters, hold for a couple years at most. Thank me then. :D