What you're staring at is a very carefully calculated move.
We have a potential ascending triangle, bear pennant, and symmetrical triangle all in one.
The question is, what wins? I do believe I have the answer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coincidentally, the 200 MA is right at the resistance of my ascending triangle.
Coincidentally, it is also the 50% Fib retrace for the entire downward movement.
Coincidentally, the dump from a textbook HS pattern stopped, right at ascending support.
Coincidentally, we had a literal textbook HS pattern form, which we are now re-testing the neckline of.
A little .. too textbook in my opinion.
We also have CME gaps to fill. Those reside at between $10,945 and $11,515 on the high side.
On the low side, between $9,055 and $8,515. Coincidence our local low stopped right before the beginning of the fill?
"We'll tame Bitcoin." -Leo Melamed, Chairman of CME. (keksX10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what is happening here?
You're falling for an elaborate trap! I almost did too until I saw us fall from the neckline, close the 4h, and then BOOM. I was telling a buddy right before the 4h close that because of bull div's in everything below the 1h, we were going to have a nice violent bounce to nuke shorts. I was only half right. Right now, traders are noticing that we're being rejected at the manufactured neckline, so they are going SHORT, but I'd bet they don't see the psychology behind why that's a bad idea.
They probably also don't see the ascending support.
They think we're going DOWN! And we will! Just ... not ... quite ... yet.
Are you picking up what I'm putting down?
Instead of going violently down, we'll probably just use them for fuel. :^)
ALWAYS remember, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here's the plan.
We have CME gaps to fill both up and down.
Long the higher low we create some time right before or after the daily close.
We will use short liquidations and stops to fuel us up to the ascending triangle resistance or 200 MA on the 2h, aka the 50% fib, and to fill the gap up. Add to your long if we successfully hold support above the ascending triangle resistance, or right around the 50% fib at $11,136. $11,124 on Bitstamp. $11,176 on Bitmex.
Make this chart yours by hitting the share button. Then keep an eye on the RSI for a break of the red resistance line and subsequent test of support. That's your initial long entry.
If the support re-test succeeds, we have a chance to go as high as $13.4k for a nice double top. POSSIBLY a higher high, but again, we have a downward CME gap to fill as well. The height of this rally may be your best opportunity to finally flip short. Look for a short entry above $12.8k.
From $13k, heading to $8,515 has a roughly 3-4 R:R ratio if we use slightly above the highest high so far as a stop.
Literal textbook manipulation.
Thanks, I hate it.
Good luck!
We have a potential ascending triangle, bear pennant, and symmetrical triangle all in one.
The question is, what wins? I do believe I have the answer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coincidentally, the 200 MA is right at the resistance of my ascending triangle.
Coincidentally, it is also the 50% Fib retrace for the entire downward movement.
Coincidentally, the dump from a textbook HS pattern stopped, right at ascending support.
Coincidentally, we had a literal textbook HS pattern form, which we are now re-testing the neckline of.
A little .. too textbook in my opinion.
We also have CME gaps to fill. Those reside at between $10,945 and $11,515 on the high side.
On the low side, between $9,055 and $8,515. Coincidence our local low stopped right before the beginning of the fill?
"We'll tame Bitcoin." -Leo Melamed, Chairman of CME. (keksX10)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what is happening here?
You're falling for an elaborate trap! I almost did too until I saw us fall from the neckline, close the 4h, and then BOOM. I was telling a buddy right before the 4h close that because of bull div's in everything below the 1h, we were going to have a nice violent bounce to nuke shorts. I was only half right. Right now, traders are noticing that we're being rejected at the manufactured neckline, so they are going SHORT, but I'd bet they don't see the psychology behind why that's a bad idea.
They probably also don't see the ascending support.
They think we're going DOWN! And we will! Just ... not ... quite ... yet.
Are you picking up what I'm putting down?
Instead of going violently down, we'll probably just use them for fuel. :^)
ALWAYS remember, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here's the plan.
We have CME gaps to fill both up and down.
Long the higher low we create some time right before or after the daily close.
We will use short liquidations and stops to fuel us up to the ascending triangle resistance or 200 MA on the 2h, aka the 50% fib, and to fill the gap up. Add to your long if we successfully hold support above the ascending triangle resistance, or right around the 50% fib at $11,136. $11,124 on Bitstamp. $11,176 on Bitmex.
Make this chart yours by hitting the share button. Then keep an eye on the RSI for a break of the red resistance line and subsequent test of support. That's your initial long entry.
If the support re-test succeeds, we have a chance to go as high as $13.4k for a nice double top. POSSIBLY a higher high, but again, we have a downward CME gap to fill as well. The height of this rally may be your best opportunity to finally flip short. Look for a short entry above $12.8k.
From $13k, heading to $8,515 has a roughly 3-4 R:R ratio if we use slightly above the highest high so far as a stop.
Literal textbook manipulation.
Thanks, I hate it.
Good luck!
Comment:
In the event the ascending triangle support fails to hold, the target of the manufactured HS is around the $9,450 area.
Comment:
I take that back. $9,540 area. Not sure why I had my neckline where it was in this idea.. Sigh.
Comment:
Make sure you use good Risk Management if you long a higher low.
This price action still looks heavily bearish to me and other than the 3d price action is not looking great. I am beginning to wonder about the 6h, because we haven't established bullish divergence in that time frame yet, the MACD is close to crossing bearish, the histogram is showing it's first potential bearish confirmation and we wicked below the 200 MA. The 50 and 100 MA's also death crossed.
8h just had it's own death cross and is also showing the same signs of a bearish cross in the MACD.
The 12h was rejected at 50 RSI twice, and in my opinion is looking to test the oversold region for the first time since this rally started. For now, the 100 MA is holding support.
The daily is showing that prior RSI support around 50 has been rejected.
Although the MACD is beginning to curl back up, we are still staring at very bearish signs on the rest of the medium time frames.
3d time frame is showing some mixed signals. We had a bullish engulfing candle, but it was stopped just short of the 50% fib for this move so far and was rejected at 60 RSI. It's entirely possible this candle was caused by short covering which would mean there's still no real buyers present.
At the moment, my most bearish bias comes almost entirely from the 4d time frame. The candle is so far 2 days in, so there are still 2 days left to invalidate what I see. Currently however, we have a bearish MACD cross, all the candles since our $14k high REEK of distribution to me, and the RSI was not rejected at re-entering oversold. Since roughly the 12th of July I've been very suspicious, as it seems to me at least on this time frame, Bitcoin has attempted to have some seriously major dumps and were rejected because we're 'in a bull market.'
The monthly is very .. interesting.
We have a lower high in price, and candle is currently printing a bearish spinning top doji. This doesn't necessarily signify anything in and of itself, but it is very telling in my opinion that the RSI was rejected at reaching overbought when it had the chance. If we are actually in a bull market, it's interesting to me that we were not able to hit overbought on this time frame considering how parabolic this rally has been.
Something tells me this idea will be invalidated like the last, but I wanted to paint a bullish picture and remain objective in the event we somehow invalidate all the bearish signs I'm seeing. Be ready for a possibly catastrophic dump though.
I have a feeling we will know within the next week which medium to long term direction Bitcoin will be choosing.
This price action still looks heavily bearish to me and other than the 3d price action is not looking great. I am beginning to wonder about the 6h, because we haven't established bullish divergence in that time frame yet, the MACD is close to crossing bearish, the histogram is showing it's first potential bearish confirmation and we wicked below the 200 MA. The 50 and 100 MA's also death crossed.
8h just had it's own death cross and is also showing the same signs of a bearish cross in the MACD.
The 12h was rejected at 50 RSI twice, and in my opinion is looking to test the oversold region for the first time since this rally started. For now, the 100 MA is holding support.
The daily is showing that prior RSI support around 50 has been rejected.
Although the MACD is beginning to curl back up, we are still staring at very bearish signs on the rest of the medium time frames.
3d time frame is showing some mixed signals. We had a bullish engulfing candle, but it was stopped just short of the 50% fib for this move so far and was rejected at 60 RSI. It's entirely possible this candle was caused by short covering which would mean there's still no real buyers present.
At the moment, my most bearish bias comes almost entirely from the 4d time frame. The candle is so far 2 days in, so there are still 2 days left to invalidate what I see. Currently however, we have a bearish MACD cross, all the candles since our $14k high REEK of distribution to me, and the RSI was not rejected at re-entering oversold. Since roughly the 12th of July I've been very suspicious, as it seems to me at least on this time frame, Bitcoin has attempted to have some seriously major dumps and were rejected because we're 'in a bull market.'
The monthly is very .. interesting.
We have a lower high in price, and candle is currently printing a bearish spinning top doji. This doesn't necessarily signify anything in and of itself, but it is very telling in my opinion that the RSI was rejected at reaching overbought when it had the chance. If we are actually in a bull market, it's interesting to me that we were not able to hit overbought on this time frame considering how parabolic this rally has been.
Something tells me this idea will be invalidated like the last, but I wanted to paint a bullish picture and remain objective in the event we somehow invalidate all the bearish signs I'm seeing. Be ready for a possibly catastrophic dump though.
I have a feeling we will know within the next week which medium to long term direction Bitcoin will be choosing.
Comment:
The 200 MA is holding as support*
On the 12h chart.
On the 12h chart.
Comment:
egh, nevermind.
Comment:
Posted the 8h twice where the 12h should of been. Apologies.
The 100 MA on the 12h IS holding support.
Comment:
Jesus IDK what happened but I royally screwed up this update, lol.
The 4d for reference.
The 4d for reference.
Comment:
Something very interesting is occurring.
Either we're about to pump like a male dog finding a beot** in heat, or we're about to have a serious dump.
WE PUMP OR WE DUMP! Regular TA nowadays..
lol
WE PUMP OR WE DUMP! Regular TA nowadays..
lol
Comment:
big, big, big move coming within 3 hours. you heard it here first
Comment:
You know what's awesome about being 'bipolar'?
...you get to enjoy life's little and small really awesome or really sh*ty feelings all in a time span of less than 10 minutes.
Multiply that by about 15 and I suspect that's when our large move occurs.
Question is, up or down?
At this point, I am 100% confident that somehow, this idea is about to get invalidated.
Up or down. ;)
...you get to enjoy life's little and small really awesome or really sh*ty feelings all in a time span of less than 10 minutes.
Multiply that by about 15 and I suspect that's when our large move occurs.
Question is, up or down?
At this point, I am 100% confident that somehow, this idea is about to get invalidated.
Up or down. ;)
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpN7FBam...
I see you, Mr. Doji. I see you.
You don't know what to do :(
NEITHER DO I
I see you, Mr. Doji. I see you.
You don't know what to do :(
NEITHER DO I
Comment:
a lesson to those stupid enough to be followign my ideas;
dont drink and trade.
if you wear your stop loss properly it may save your life but it wont save you from a tui
dont drink and trade.
if you wear your stop loss properly it may save your life but it wont save you from a tui
Comment:
Okay so.
This was a fugly close.
Towards the end of the 4h trading period bears said "CME RUNS THIS SHEEEEET cause norly we just want cheaper prices but CME RUNS SHIT SHEEEEEET SO WE GOIN DOWN TO FILL DAT GAP BECAS CME OWNSSSSSSSSSS"
kek.
Leo, let me know when you want to make another statement about BTC.
lol
This was a fugly close.
kek.
Leo, let me know when you want to make another statement about BTC.
lol
Comment:
bears are MAD
Comment:
There once was a bear who now turned bull,
He saw the hidden divergence and said oh hell no!
With his tail between his legs, he walked away,
Renewed with spirit, he tried to say...
But dad, the bears, they are too strong!
Little did he know, his dad went long.
Oh but a trick, he played on the little one,
He smiled with a grin, while bear-son went numb.
There are many lessons learned in this mini bear song,
Especially why his dad went long, little bear-son
Was starting to feel a little dumb
Little bear son saw the bulls painting charts,
Then and only then realized where he went wrong.
This bull has turned ... bear..
He saw the hidden divergence and said oh hell no!
With his tail between his legs, he walked away,
Renewed with spirit, he tried to say...
But dad, the bears, they are too strong!
Little did he know, his dad went long.
Oh but a trick, he played on the little one,
He smiled with a grin, while bear-son went numb.
There are many lessons learned in this mini bear song,
Especially why his dad went long, little bear-son
Was starting to feel a little dumb
Little bear son saw the bulls painting charts,
Then and only then realized where he went wrong.
This bull has turned ... bear..
Comment:
Getting dangerously close to the bottom of my 'value zone' for longs.
Comment:
I am personally staying out of a long until I see strength.
So far at least, nada.
So far at least, nada.
Comment:
here's the irony of it all-
I've been short this entire time waiting for this zone.
Yet I don't see strength.
Pamp eet.
STOP ME OUT SO I CAN GAME ALREADY GAWSHDAMNIT
I've been short this entire time waiting for this zone.
Yet I don't see strength.
Pamp eet.
STOP ME OUT SO I CAN GAME ALREADY GAWSHDAMNIT
Comment:
DO SOMETHING
Comment:
Ladies and gentleman.
We are likely having yeeterino's for breakfast.
See you at $4k
We are likely having yeeterino's for breakfast.
See you at $4k
Comment:
That moment when you actually used to be a good analyst
FeelsBadMan
oh well, crying in tears of profits on this short right now.
Stops in profit, let's go to pamp town. HE SOLD SO WE MAST PAMP EET.
later yall. finally got the confirmation I wanted so now it's time to play some vidya games.
FeelsBadMan
oh well, crying in tears of profits on this short right now.
Stops in profit, let's go to pamp town. HE SOLD SO WE MAST PAMP EET.
later yall. finally got the confirmation I wanted so now it's time to play some vidya games.
Comment:
...That moment when Bitmex humbles the market.
So as of right now at least, price action isn't indicative of a substantial bounce. That's because one occurred already. That said, that mega bounce from $10k nuked 2/6 of my stop losses.
Maybe I'm an idiot.
Maybe I'm emotional.
Maybe I'm a bad trader.
I closed my short from $10,700 entirely and went long on $10k.
That bounce was either a massive whale closing a massive short, or a very, very substantial buy order taking place. Either way, I don't see it as a negative (or price dropping) effect to the market.
That said, I am substantially in profit, so I'm gonna risk a bit of that profit and go against my prior feelings about a prolonged downwards movement. I suspect at LEAST a bounce is coming, so I want to capitalize on that. If we continue downwards I'll just FOMO short a bounce.
As I stated earlier however, that HS pattern is way way too textbook.
Something isn't right here.
We'll see.
So as of right now at least, price action isn't indicative of a substantial bounce. That's because one occurred already. That said, that mega bounce from $10k nuked 2/6 of my stop losses.
Maybe I'm an idiot.
Maybe I'm emotional.
Maybe I'm a bad trader.
I closed my short from $10,700 entirely and went long on $10k.
That bounce was either a massive whale closing a massive short, or a very, very substantial buy order taking place. Either way, I don't see it as a negative (or price dropping) effect to the market.
That said, I am substantially in profit, so I'm gonna risk a bit of that profit and go against my prior feelings about a prolonged downwards movement. I suspect at LEAST a bounce is coming, so I want to capitalize on that. If we continue downwards I'll just FOMO short a bounce.
As I stated earlier however, that HS pattern is way way too textbook.
Something isn't right here.
We'll see.
Comment:
Shared on Bitmex trollbox.
Forgot about that wedge.
Forgot about that wedge.
The 4D is outright ugly. Seriously ugly.
So this idea may be invalidated- but it goes with the macro trend.
We'll see.