BTC 4 scenarios, bearish daily in bullish weekly momentum
1 - Most probable;
1.1 - Most probable of most probable
1.2 - Least probable of most probable
2 - Least probable;
2.1 - Most probable of least probable
2.2 - Least probable of least probable
1.1 and 1.2, are longer scenarios as bearish market always lasts longer
Observations:
- Those investors who entered crypto between Janurary - Febrauary are about on 0 profit now
- 30th of April were many events on blockchain projects so people were entering before these days
- Euphoria related with "market bullish reversal" dropped down a bit, and also no more new money is entering as prices of some altcoins went up
- 14th of May important Consensus 2018 conference
Conclusions:
I see 1.1 scenario as most probable scenario:
- market is already exhausted, so market need to refuel through dip down to about 7950 $ (7750 $-8050 $) on 7-9th of May,
- RSI (38) - below already below 54 (testing settignes)
- on 14th of May will start Consensus 2018 conference the biggest in this year (in NY), so I forsee price reverse several days before 14th of May
I see 2.1 scenario as possible:
- market is exhausted but always can go a little higher
- beside it seems bullish, in fact this is bearish scenario
Market action:
Closing 4h candles and 1D below yellow line will confirm 1 scenario - dip to 7950 $, or above green line second scenario - up to 10200 $
1.1 - Most probable of most probable
1.2 - Least probable of most probable
2 - Least probable;
2.1 - Most probable of least probable
2.2 - Least probable of least probable
1.1 and 1.2, are longer scenarios as bearish market always lasts longer
Observations:
- Those investors who entered crypto between Janurary - Febrauary are about on 0 profit now
- 30th of April were many events on blockchain projects so people were entering before these days
- Euphoria related with "market bullish reversal" dropped down a bit, and also no more new money is entering as prices of some altcoins went up
- 14th of May important Consensus 2018 conference
Conclusions:
I see 1.1 scenario as most probable scenario:
- market is already exhausted, so market need to refuel through dip down to about 7950 $ (7750 $-8050 $) on 7-9th of May,
- RSI (38) - below already below 54 (testing settignes)
- on 14th of May will start Consensus 2018 conference the biggest in this year (in NY), so I forsee price reverse several days before 14th of May
I see 2.1 scenario as possible:
- market is exhausted but always can go a little higher
- beside it seems bullish, in fact this is bearish scenario
Market action:
Closing 4h candles and 1D below yellow line will confirm 1 scenario - dip to 7950 $, or above green line second scenario - up to 10200 $
Trade active:
- Inside bigger triangle/pennant, formed another triagnle inside (purple line) - probably US dollar local strenghtening caused this. After Crossing over this new smaller triangle, RSI 4h candle ecaped from bearish and closed in bullish area (over 54). Shortly after Goldmna Sachs announced in media about listing BTC futures,
- Shifting into 2.1, 2.2 scenarios as more probable
- Shifting into 2.1, 2.2 scenarios as more probable
Comment:
placed several longs yesterday (chart from yesterday)
Trade active:
Bittrex is done with dumping BTC so I forsee new , although panic would be easy trade. or at the end of big triangle. means altseason until July
Comment:
correction: TV deleted new scenarios numbers.
Bittrex is done with dumping BTC so I forsee new 1.1, although 2.2 panic would be easy trade. 1.1 or 1.2 at the end of big triangle. Before 1.1/1.2 means altseason until July as side BTC market - was altseason
Bittrex is done with dumping BTC so I forsee new 1.1, although 2.2 panic would be easy trade. 1.1 or 1.2 at the end of big triangle. Before 1.1/1.2 means altseason until July as side BTC market - was altseason
Trade active:
- shorting anything 7.6k-7.85k (8k max) within next 3D candle, but 7.7k could be max if it go up from here
- similarities to Mar 20 of 2018 - BTC dropped 3k$, from 9.6k to 6.6k
- similarities to Mar 20 of 2018 - BTC dropped 3k$, from 9.6k to 6.6k
Trade active:
- shorting 7.7 ended with success.
- potential panic zone under 7050$ activated
- panic zone under 6600$ activated
- crossed down trend channel as partially confirmed panic mdoe activated
- although crossing down to 6100$ trend channel could be still shake(fake)out
Possible outcomes from now:
1) rise up to 7100$
2) rise to 6600$ then full panic mode
3) panic mode from now
When buy? Look for high funding rates across margin trading markets and also record high volume, high bounce will be confirmation.
Target of panic id 5200$ with maximum range to 4600$
- potential panic zone under 7050$ activated
- panic zone under 6600$ activated
- crossed down trend channel as partially confirmed panic mdoe activated
- although crossing down to 6100$ trend channel could be still shake(fake)out
Possible outcomes from now:
1) rise up to 7100$
2) rise to 6600$ then full panic mode
3) panic mode from now
When buy? Look for high funding rates across margin trading markets and also record high volume, high bounce will be confirmation.
Target of panic id 5200$ with maximum range to 4600$
