bricoleurs

"Real value" of BTC, thoughts

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As a result of the ongoing fall of BTC , there is a lot of talks going on about the "real value" of BTC and the magnitude of the hype.

Here is my take on it:
- before the last, normal-weekly correction (2015-01-25) highest-OBV was 2,2m. At this OBV-level the close-prices were 920USD (2013-11-25) and 2349USD (2017-05-29).
- let's accept 2017-05-29 close price as a "real price": 2349 USD (at OBV 2.2m)
- since 2017-06-05, OBV has grown roughly ~30%.
-so superroughly 2349*1,3 = 3054. (which - by the way - corresponds quite well with middle level of Keltner 100, 1.618.)
-so in my mind BTC is ~4 times overhyped and running without any weekly correction since 2015-01-02 (!).


Weakness of this line of thought:
- OBV-price relation is more complex
- Daily-based corrections might do for correction in such a speedy market
- BTC-beleivers says that the promise is a new financial system and the value isn't the market value.


Personally:
- I think it is overhyped, but will not fall as of now
- The continuous hard-forks feels spooky to me (26 by now?)
- Winklevoss-twins as a face of bitcoin do not correspond in me with Satoshi's or Szabo's freedom-loving geniusness, dignity and goodwill.
- The way in which Winklevoss-twins-billionaires boosting the hype feels somewhat irresponsible to me (cryptos are risky, and if down the line BTC falls big, small Jennifers/Joes will lose, not them) -- they feel like "a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."

This is NOT a trading advice, but comments/criticism welcome!
I think you should add something like "intrinsic value"
- BTC's transaction system is not able to perform the increasing number transactions going along with the mainstream adoption
- there is no real use of BTC because systems like SWIFT, PayPal & Co, Credit Cards are working for several decades

+ BTC gives people back the ability to have a real possession that can't taken away by governments by freezing bank accounts or seizing other items
+ BTC is 'banking the unbanked' what gives people in third world countries the ability to take part in global economy
+2 Reply
bricoleurs sebastian.soik
@sebastian.soik, yes, I agree with your comments, "intrinsic value" could have been a better term, and yes, I love the idea of empowering people, giving back their taken financial freedom, yet it feels that a hype might just slow it down, or if it falls, maybe a better decentralized solutions might rise (ETH, LTC, DASH etc.)
Reply
Fish40 bricoleurs
@bricoleurs, well it isn't about trading but its a good bedtime story i liked to read. The future is dark. And u might be quite right, it could go deep, just like in the past. History will repeat itselff now like in 2013 and then in 2019 just like 2017 we will go back up 1000%, the 100k mark is comming closer.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
+1 Reply
@Fish40, thanks for the comment and for the link too, it is much a better bedtime story than mine!
+1 Reply
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