bricoleurs

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have BTC-USD-monthly with logistic (growth) function (phi-rameters are somewhat arbitrary) and with simple Triple Exp Moving Average. Based on this, I am kind of thinking to buy in during the autumn 2023 (somewhere between 12k-16k), and I might be selling during the winter 2025 (somewhere between 44k-62k). Or maybe not. ___ This is NOT a trading...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have BTC-USD-weekly with Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) indicator adjusted for volume and with standard RSI/ROC indicator. Albeit most of the traders seem to have positive (long) expectations for BTC, and they might be right, however, I think that BTC might once more still has to go bellow 3.5k and consodilate for a while, before getting back on...

bricoleurs Updated 

In my biased view BTC might be somewhat bullish until the autumn of 2021 and than maybe somewhat bearish until the autumn of 2022. That will be the moment when I might consider to entry the game. My lazy prediction is based on Volume Weighed Moving ALMA with some smooting (white line) and some past data (using bayesian ARIMA approach, but with quite low credible...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have GAMEUSD-monthly with two indicators (Kalman and VWMACD). GameCredits has been operating since 2014, so I think it might get back on track and go back to its indicated Kalman and VWMACD value within 6 months (2020 March-ish). So I am considering to invest into GAME -- expecting an 80% 1 year ROI. Stop-sell set at around -20%-ish. ___ This is NOT a...

bricoleurs Updated 

In my view 2018 is somewhat similar to 2014: dump after hype. 2days charts presented. Left is BTC-2014, right it BTC-2018. Purple vertical-line on the left is where I think we are. Using simple_CCI , Bollinger Bands (which is basically moving average +- standard deviations) and simple_SMI, I think BTC might be now at the point in 2018, where it was at July,...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have BTCUSD weekly on log scale and Coppock on log scale too. Background: the last major correction started at ~ Nov, 2013 and finished Dec, 2016. It took ~ 1100days. Lowest was around its half, ~600 days. Hip: my biased prediction use the assumption that the current correction is similar to 2013-2016 in duration. (And yes, I might be wrong...

bricoleurs Updated 

On the chart, we have weekly-BTCUSD with the following indicators: - BB: Bollinger Bands (which is basically 20 units moving averages +- the standard deviations of the same timeframe) - HMA: Hull Moving Averages, which is basically a (simple, but clever), smoothed moving average - K: Klinger simple (again quasi-centered) volume-based oscillator - CCI: Commodity...

bricoleurs Updated 

BTC Short Here we have 1d BTC: - blue dashed line is simple linear regression (days/close price). - rainbow-line is Hull Moving Average 100 days. - green-red-line is simple moving average 400 days. - grey line is 800 days moving average, - middle green doted line (between the previous two) is weekly MA20-STDEV20 (see Bollinger Bands) - and than standard Coppock...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have 1d BTC: - blue dashed line is simple linear regression (days/close price). - rainbow-line is Hull Moving Average 100 days. - green-red-line is simple Moving Average 400 days. - grey line is Moving Average 800days, - middle green doted line (between the previous two) is WEEKLY MA20-STDEV20 (see Bollinger Bands) - and than standard Coppock and simple...

bricoleurs Updated 

Based on 20 days long Bollinger Bands (which is basically a price-moving averages +- standard deviation) and based on supersimple price/time linear regression : my entry zones are the two quadrilaterals (numbered "1" and "2" on the chart). I expect BTCUSD to fall into area "1" approx by 11th of March (+-12days), if not, then my next entry area is "2"....

bricoleurs Updated 

Using 1day-Bollinger Bands (BB,20,3) and SMI Ergodic Indicator (well, basically both are price based as SMI_Ergodic is based on True Strength Index) for BTCUSD and adding a rough extrapolation (using data from Jan-Jun, 2014) -> I think that BTC might be zigzagging in the roughly-hand-drawn channel (upper: red, lower: green). This is NOT a trading advise, just a...

bricoleurs Updated 

LTC's correction might just started: I think LTC's major correction zone is around 185-235. LTC is a technically superstrong, fast and cheap, so i think it will go back to ATH. Please note: this is NOT a trading advice, I am typically wrong about LTC, always calculate risk, avoid FOMO.

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have the BTCUSD 1w MACD and 1w TSI. Chart talks for itself, based on this, I think, the current correction/downtrend might take months/years. I have no idea how long, but last time, it lasted from 27th of Jan, 2014 -> 12th of Oct, 2015. This is neither a trading advise, nor a prediction, just a simple opinion from a non-pro. Comments/criticism...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have 8h ETH-USD, I think that ETH might be a good call to buy now, because - Coppock entered + - Volume is supercool - RSI seemed to leave lower zone - 8h Klinger and SMI Ergodic both OK - Supports (MAs) are OK. My tactics: - Buy in 1/3 @1070, 1/3 @1050, 1/3 @1030 - Stop sell : @1000 (3-7%, WA:5%) loss, or on volume drop - Exit 1/2@1300 (25%), 1/2...

bricoleurs Updated 

Hard to tell whether BTC turns into bullish, or into bearish in the next 24-48h... My loose guess is bearish , because - 1d CCI < 10 - 1d RSI has not entered into the lower low zone (30ish) - OBV could not get back to before-dump level contra: OBV has get back to its EMA! if it falls, my guess for the bottom is 9k-ish, if it rise, I think about a kind of...

bricoleurs Updated 

Here we have 4h-BCH (Keltner 1.618, high ; Coppock; RSI; DMI). Based on: - Coppock is in + more and more - RSI signals we are not overbought - DI+ is over DI- at DMI - and also onbalancevolume has crossedover its emas (not visible on this chart) I think that: BCH might be supersoon ready for a ride back to 3000ish or more, probably cannot hold up there, but a...

bricoleurs Updated 

4h Coppock starts to be for more and more time in the + range, and also based on other basic indicators (short term RSI, DMI and OBV, see on the chart), I think, if LTC is able to break 250 in the upcoming hours/days and OBV remains cool, than LTC might be supeready for a good ride. I plan to buy in above ~250, stop sell ~220, and if OBV is good than exit 1/2...

bricoleurs

As a result of the ongoing fall of BTC, there is a lot of talks going on about the "real value" of BTC and the magnitude of the hype. Here is my take on it: - before the last, normal-weekly correction (2015-01-25) highest-OBV was 2,2m. At this OBV-level the close-prices were 920USD (2013-11-25) and 2349USD (2017-05-29). - let's accept 2017-05-29 close price as...