The unwritten rule of the bear market is dead cat bounces end at the 0.618 retracement.
Bitcoin reached this retracement and stopped.
Once a bounce breaks this pattern it will be an indication that the bear market is over.
Buying now could prove costly, especially as the other unwritten rule is dump at 6k.
If the bottom is in, pray patience pays off with a buying opportunity back in the 3000s for a long term HODL.
Lots of indicators are starting to show there is a chance BTC has reversed for the long term. Long term believers in BTC need to start being aggressive and buy the large pullbacks. If they don't, they need need to ask themselves if they ever...
Potential here for a falling wedge break out.
Look out for:
1) Bottom trendline breaks, but buy the yearly low (Huge daily wick)
2) Buy the bottom trendline of the wedge (Aggressive)
3) Buy the breakout of the top of the wedge (Breakout trade)
4) Buy the pullback after breakout (Bull flag)
I have charted here some points why this could have been a reversal. Good luck to those who got a long entry (4120) on the pullback for the double bottom chart pattern.
4800 is the target for the Double Bottom pattern.
Using the Volume Profile shows most BTC has changed hands in the $6000 to $6800 region.
There is a lot of overhead resistance up to $8200. For bitcoin to go up through all that resistance is going to need some significant momentum.
If the diagonal green support doesn't hold and the bottom of the triangle is broken then its kinda obvious where we are...
Bear market scenario. Whilst Bitcoin is below 200 daily simple moving average and the red dashed trend line , these levels could be important for capitulation prices.
Potential support points indicted by the volume profile:
Potential support points indicated by Fibonacci (retracement from start of bull run to the top):
The support at $6000 held, for a Triple bottom.
Bears looked exhausted by the time they reached there. It was easy for the Bulls to defend.
On the way back up there is a lot of resistance around $7000.
4hr Chart has resistances of:
2) A horizontal resistance
3) Bottom of the symmetrical triangle
$7000 is important profit taking area for Bulls.
What if there hasn't been a bear market yet?
Everyone is talking about when the bear market is going to end. To me it looks like the market is just consolidating - moving sideways before continuing the bull market or actually starting a bear market.
The worlds largest triangle is what we are all watching right now.
I'm edging on the side of a bear market...
This chart is just for fun. Unless you are a Bull of course.
I have applied the stages of a bubble from here: transportgeography.org - This is a worst case scenario for BTC.
I used fibs from the bottom at $162 to the top of the bull run at $19,900 to work out rough prices for the stages.
This is a update to my idea "Bull trap? Return to normal OR Return to mean", linked at the bottom.
I have been watching the Weekly of Bitcoin. I am following up on a previous idea, where I was looking out for bitcoin to fall below the 50 week MA, which happened last week. Assuming bitcoin is continuing a downtrend to 4900 these are some potential bounce points...
Here's an idea I am publishing to keep a record. I am not trading this.
There is an upwards trend line for the previous two lows. The RSI is getting oversold and the EFI momentum may flip if it crosses over. The combination of the trend line, RSI oversold, EFI flip and a nice candle stick pattern might coincide with a bounce at about 6900.
If there is a...
In 2014, Bitcoin crossed a 'Downwards Trendline'. Which was positive at the time.
In hindsight it was a bull trap. The second half of the multi year bear market ensued. This was indicated by the 20/50 week MA cross over.
Back then, the breakout of the downwards trendline now shows it was a false a period of over optimism. The classic 'return to normal' phase...