dRends35

Taking a short break

Short
dRends35 Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Guys, my shorting options have disappeared for crypto so I'm going to take a little break, but I'll be back soon enough making more crypto charts and probably some calls in other markets. There are a few stocks coming into bloom that I'd like to cover.

For Bitcoin, as much as the bulls are pounding the table for accumulation, B waves up to 40 - 50K etc, for me very little has actually happened since the capitulation low in May. In retrospect price has just been trundling down the hill and there's not a great deal to say. Also I have noticed that the moment the bulls start getting up in arms is often quite close to capitulation. We'll see if that happens here. I think so.

My thoughts for Bitcoin are very simple: For as long as price is in the downward channel nothing too much is happening. When price is near the upper trendline it may be a good short. If price starts drifting above the channel thats not good on the short side. I would not long from bottom up due to risk of capitulation.

As the channel moves down price will inevitably become more involved with the support area horizontal. This is a very important area because it is the last line of defense for the bulls. As I said in my previous thread this support band is very similar to the SOW AR band outlined in my Wyckoff thread - Check it out if you'd like to see an example of Wyckoff that actually works live with price action unfolding - I made it through the topping formation from the long long ago back in March.

When the support area breaks it should be a steep capitulation and the next untouched support area is 17k. Will price capitulate all the way there? - I don't know but there isn't much in the way of support to stop it. I wouldn't bet against it.

Back in a bit...

Not advice.
Comment:
Ok guys, the channel is broken with impulse so good chance price is going to full monty shake rattle and roll shorts out of their positions. It could of course be a fakeout, but it doesn't look like it to me. If price is forming a 1:1 ABC then it will reach $39.8K. That is also the 0.886 of the previous top. That seems most likely to me, also perhaps it reverses at 0.786.

Anyhow there are the fibs. I dont think there is much chance of a reversal, but I guess its always good to have a back door open to the unexpected.

Comment:
Well that should be it pretty much for now. Good luck.

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