A relief rally occurred ever since our primary target ("TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB") was hit. Following are two of the charts' analyses for your review:
1 - BTCUSD ( ) on February 18th - Added confirmation of target TG-1 = 449.89 defined on Feb. 10th:
2 - BTCUSD ( ) on February 23rd - Addition of second target-low, TG-Lo = 385.94 on Feb. 22nd:
As TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB got hit, a relief rally occurred. Hence, I have added an additional overhead reference range, which some trades familiar with my older strategies will likely recognized as being the "EAGLE's Nest".
In essence, the EAGLE's nest corresponds to a range which is often reached and acts as a /support or as price reacts to new structural extremes. In this case, price has reacted to a new structural extreme-low as it hit our target at 449.89, and a rallying occurred right up to 593.59.
The experienced counter-trend trader will consider the EAGLE as a physical marker that defines an opportunity to get into a trade. By definition, I came up with the name "EAGLE" to signify:
(E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry into a counter-trend position, whereas the EAGLE's Nest defines a upper and lower value which offers the trader an optional range of tolerance and risk exposure.
In this particular case, the EAGLE's nest has a range defined by an upper value of 618.21 and a lower value of 593.59. So, the astute counter-trend trader who uses his/her own due diligence and analysis could consider this range as a way to "front" a short position, one partialled at the lower value, and a second one partialled at the upper value, while maintaining a Stop-Loss ("SL") at the next structure high (here, estimated at about 649).
While we have developed our own predicitve analysis and forecasting strategies and methodologies, the EAGLE remains a distinctively separate method of exacting a trade entry. In fact, this represents a method that we use on occasion to confirm our predictive analyses, as we like and still recommend anyone to use a layered approach to entry/exit point definition, here based on a non-price as well as a price-based approach, through the use of ranges, and structural analysis (plus pattern-based trading, not included in this analysis).
I hope this offered you some interesting glimpse into one of many ways one can trade. If and once a market reversal occurs, then we will adjust the tone and re-address our directional bias accordingly. However, for the time being, there is nothing in our price-independent predictive analysis and price-based methodology to indicate a market reversal to the upside. The ranges defined should be considered as "directional tolerance" reference ranges, and it remains up to the trader to define her own entry/exit methodology.
My interest remains to keep you thirsty and avidly interested in persuing your own self-directed edification of the market study. This is one long and infinite path of hidden geometries, infinite mathematics, but nonetheless full of surprise if you keep your feet planted on the narrow paths of simplicity and selfless thinking.
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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My personal expectation is that TG-1 will hold, unless the market gets hit by more major FUD of similar magnitude as last Tuesday - but we'll see!
1 - The best thing one can do to learn to trade is to make just enough mistake to know what not to repeat.
2 - The other best thing to do is to remember that there is and never will be enough life to live to make all the possible mistakes necessary to become good at anything.
3 - The market does not exist with any consciousness of you, therefore it is not there with any conscious intent to trip, hurt or compliment you. The love, respect and hatred you might develop for it can never be reciprocated, and unreciprocated love leads all things to hatred. Because there is no sentiment in the mass of activities, except the action of traders that trigger the activities, there is therefore no love, and thus no reciprocity. Advance therein with no fear, but a reason to do what you are about to do: Trading.
4 - For that reason, then plan your trade then trade your plan, with stop-losses defined first, entry point second and target last. A target defined as a first step in your plan with distract your plan from the defensive measures necessary to advert losses. In trading, the first lessons are minimizing losses, not improving gains, which come after you reduced your losses to near none.
5 - Finally, become your own wolf. My advice works for me, and might hinder you. My trades, analyses, forecasts and charting might also blind you of ways to better understand the market. So, remove all trust, impose all doubts, and verify all encounters with your own blanket of curiosity.