Update-2: Relief Rally, EAGLE Strategy Explained | #Bitcoin $BTC
Friends,
A relief rally occurred ever since our primary bearish target ("TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB") was hit. Following are two of the charts' analyses for your review:
1 - BTCUSD (Bitstamp) on February 18th - Added confirmation of target TG-1 = 449.89 defined on Feb. 10th:
-
2 - BTCUSD (Bitstamp) on February 23rd - Addition of second bearish target-low, TG-Lo = 385.94 on Feb. 22nd:
-
As TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB got hit, a relief rally occurred. Hence, I have added an additional overhead reference range, which some trades familiar with my older strategies will likely recognized as being the "EAGLE's Nest".
In essence, the EAGLE's nest corresponds to a range which is often reached and acts as a /support or resistance level as price reacts to new structural extremes. In this case, price has reacted to a new structural extreme-low as it hit our target at 449.89, and a rallying occurred right up to 593.59.
The experienced counter-trend trader will consider the EAGLE as a physical marker that defines an opportunity to get into a trade. By definition, I came up with the name "EAGLE" to signify:
(E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry into a counter-trend position, whereas the EAGLE's Nest defines a upper and lower value which offers the trader an optional range of tolerance and risk exposure.
In this particular case, the EAGLE's nest has a range defined by an upper value of 618.21 and a lower value of 593.59. So, the astute counter-trend trader who uses his/her own due diligence and analysis could consider this range as a way to "front" a short position, one partialled at the lower value, and a second one partialled at the upper value, while maintaining a Stop-Loss ("SL") at the next structure high (here, estimated at about 649).
While we have developed our own predicitve analysis and forecasting strategies and methodologies, the EAGLE remains a distinctively separate method of exacting a trade entry. In fact, this represents a method that we use on occasion to confirm our predictive analyses, as we like and still recommend anyone to use a layered approach to entry/exit point definition, here based on a non-price as well as a price-based approach, through the use of ranges, trendlines and structural analysis (plus pattern-based trading, not included in this analysis).
OVERALL:
I hope this offered you some interesting glimpse into one of many ways one can trade. If and once a bullish market reversal occurs, then we will adjust the tone and re-address our directional bias accordingly. However, for the time being, there is nothing in our price-independent predictive analysis and price-based methodology to indicate a market reversal to the upside. The ranges defined should be considered as "directional tolerance" reference ranges, and it remains up to the trader to define her own entry/exit methodology.
My interest remains to keep you thirsty and avidly interested in persuing your own self-directed edification of the market study. This is one long and infinite path of hidden geometries, infinite mathematics, but nonetheless full of surprise if you keep your feet planted on the narrow paths of simplicity and selfless thinking.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
-----------------------------------------------------
Get out Twitted forecasts, signals,analyses:
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
A relief rally occurred ever since our primary bearish target ("TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB") was hit. Following are two of the charts' analyses for your review:
1 - BTCUSD (Bitstamp) on February 18th - Added confirmation of target TG-1 = 449.89 defined on Feb. 10th:
-
2 - BTCUSD (Bitstamp) on February 23rd - Addition of second bearish target-low, TG-Lo = 385.94 on Feb. 22nd:
-
As TG-1 = 449.89 - 10 FEB got hit, a relief rally occurred. Hence, I have added an additional overhead reference range, which some trades familiar with my older strategies will likely recognized as being the "EAGLE's Nest".
In essence, the EAGLE's nest corresponds to a range which is often reached and acts as a /support or resistance level as price reacts to new structural extremes. In this case, price has reacted to a new structural extreme-low as it hit our target at 449.89, and a rallying occurred right up to 593.59.
The experienced counter-trend trader will consider the EAGLE as a physical marker that defines an opportunity to get into a trade. By definition, I came up with the name "EAGLE" to signify:
(E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry into a counter-trend position, whereas the EAGLE's Nest defines a upper and lower value which offers the trader an optional range of tolerance and risk exposure.
In this particular case, the EAGLE's nest has a range defined by an upper value of 618.21 and a lower value of 593.59. So, the astute counter-trend trader who uses his/her own due diligence and analysis could consider this range as a way to "front" a short position, one partialled at the lower value, and a second one partialled at the upper value, while maintaining a Stop-Loss ("SL") at the next structure high (here, estimated at about 649).
While we have developed our own predicitve analysis and forecasting strategies and methodologies, the EAGLE remains a distinctively separate method of exacting a trade entry. In fact, this represents a method that we use on occasion to confirm our predictive analyses, as we like and still recommend anyone to use a layered approach to entry/exit point definition, here based on a non-price as well as a price-based approach, through the use of ranges, trendlines and structural analysis (plus pattern-based trading, not included in this analysis).
OVERALL:
I hope this offered you some interesting glimpse into one of many ways one can trade. If and once a bullish market reversal occurs, then we will adjust the tone and re-address our directional bias accordingly. However, for the time being, there is nothing in our price-independent predictive analysis and price-based methodology to indicate a market reversal to the upside. The ranges defined should be considered as "directional tolerance" reference ranges, and it remains up to the trader to define her own entry/exit methodology.
My interest remains to keep you thirsty and avidly interested in persuing your own self-directed edification of the market study. This is one long and infinite path of hidden geometries, infinite mathematics, but nonetheless full of surprise if you keep your feet planted on the narrow paths of simplicity and selfless thinking.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
-----------------------------------------------------
Get out Twitted forecasts, signals,analyses:
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster