All three scenarios are based on the following assumptions:
+ The market is overbought and a correction is inevitable
+ The 30,000 level is psychologically strong and will provide strong resistance for the bulls.
+ A strong has been formed at 20,000 USD, breaking through of which is possible only due to a sharp change in market conditions and macroeconomic factors.
I will not justify these assumptions. Everyone who knows the basics of will agree with me.
Scenario # 1 - Rapid Rise - Rapid Fall
inertia will allow breaking through the 30,000 level and approaching 32,000 USD. In this case, the correction will be small and short, in the range of 28 - 26,000 USD. After that, with a high degree of probability, the growth will continue. The lack of a full correction will prevent the bulls from developing a full-scale bull advance. The next expected peak is around 35,000 in the spring. Further development of events depends on the support of major players and a fundamental factor. The risk of a deep drawdown in the second half of the year is high, with support around USD 20,000.
Scenario number 2 - protracted sideways
The bulls will not have enough strength to go beyond the 30,500 USD mark. After that, a protracted consolidation will begin until the beginning of winter in the corridor 30 - 23000 USD. The accumulation of large trading volumes in this corridor will create the foundation for future strong growth with a target of up to USD 40 ,000 and a possible bounce. A strong correction can only be expected in the next year, 2022, with support at the upper wall of the new trading channel at USD 30,000.
Scenario # 3 - Correction
The bulls will not have enough strength to go beyond the 30,500 USD mark. External negativity (collapse of stock markets, foreign policy exacerbations, hacker hacks, etc.) will exacerbate the correction and weak hands will sell up to 20,000 with a possible puncture up to 19,000. The market will move away from panic sales for a long time and growth will begin only in the second half of the year. The growth limit in 2021 is USD 30,000. If positive develops, this correction will become a good foundation for future growth with the development of a new wave structure up to 50,000 USD.
PS. So far, it is impossible to talk about the priority of this or that scenario over others. The behavior of the market when trading around 30,000 USD will be indicative, as well as the very fact of whether there will be a breakout or not, and how this breakout will be realized.
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