Bitcoin Today: Only falling till 2019

Overview
The December downward course, along with the Bearish Trend Line, continues. Empty fundamental background and approaching holidays are delaying all the possible movements on the next year, which leaves the question hanging, will current low demand be enough to hold the support levels. So, the important question, for now, will there be enough buyers in the $ 3000 – $ 3300 zone to hold the price. And if not, how low we will reach. The next popular bet after $ 3000 is $ 2500 level, awaited by many traders as the turnaround point. The main resistance from the upside is $ 3500 - $ 4000 zone.

Today forecast
Trading Bounds: $3300 – $4000. Breakthrough below $3300 will send the price to the $3000.

Forecasts and opinions

• Willy Woo
  Independent crypto-researcher and creator of the NVT indicator Willy Woo recently had presented a plausible scenario in one year's horizon.
  The first thing Woo pays attention to is a simple 200-day moving average. The upward intersection of this MA and the rapprochement of the latter with the 200-week MA will signal bullish sentiment in the market.
  The range between $ 2,200 and $ 2,900 is the “surrender zone”, as in the worst periods of the 2014-2015 bear market. This range is optimal for placing purchase orders.
  The 200-week MA is the lower boundary of the accumulation zone in the range of about $ 3,600- $ 4,550. This area, according to Woo, will be relevant in the second quarter of 2019. At this time, the bear market is expected to come to an end. This, in particular, will be indicated by the transaction volumes for various coins, changes in the HODL structure, the NVT indicator, etc.
  If the first cryptocurrency falls below the level of $ 1,300, then the media will probably be replete with materials that “Bitcoin has died”.
  
• Murad Mahmudov
  Investor and economist Murad Mahmudov regularly shares his thoughts on the long-term outlook for BTC. In the middle of November, he published a very conservative forecast, which has hardly lost its relevance now.
  Murad makes a clear analogy with the bear market of 2014-2015. Just as a few years ago, the lower bound of the “Triangle” figure was pierced.
  After that, at the end of November, the level of $ 4334 was passed. The lower mark, to which the price can go down the channel, is $ 2880. After that, the analyst is sure, the price will begin a gradual recovery.
  The upper boundary of the channel will be broken around May next year. This moment marks the end of the bearish cycle and the resumption of the long-term uptrend.
  According to Murad, something like a “preparatory stage” is now taking place for the upcoming bull market, which is expressed in a gradual increase in the volume of transactions in the Bitcoin network.
  For example, before the renewal of the uptrend in 2015–2016, at the end of 2015, the price gradually decreased amid the growth in the volume of BTC transactions. A similar situation is happening now.
  In a recent tweet, Murad Mahmudov confirmed Willy Woo’s thesis about the trigger point, which coincides with the 200-week MA.
  
• Plan B
  It is widely believed that Bitcoin shows growth with the approach of the so-called halving when the reward for the found Bitcoin miners blocks is halved. The argument of the supporters of this theory is based on the fact that BTC is becoming a scarcer asset. In other words, with unchanged demand, a decrease in asset supply leads to an increase in its price.
  Halving occurs every four years, that is, every 210 thousand blocks. The nearest such event should take place approximately on May 26, 2020. After this date, the miner’s reward will not be 12.5 BTC, as it is now, but 6.25 BTC.
  The last halving, which was the second in the history of Bitcoin, took place on July 9, 2016.
  Immediately after the halving, there was some decline, which served as a kind of respite before the dizzy growth that began only a few months later.
  According to Plan B, a Twitter user, Bitcoin shows the lowest rates for 17-12 months before the halving. A year before it begins to rise in price.
  
• CoinDesk
  According to CoinDesk analysts, the next key support level is likely to be the $ 2,900-3,000 area.
  Also, analysts state that for altcoins, 2018 was even more painful than 2014-2015.
  Thus, during the 2014-2015 bear market, the altcoin market sank 85% in relation to its maximum. Since the beginning of this year, this market has shrunk more than 10 times - the drawdown relative to the historical maximum exceeded 90%
  Analyst Sam Uimet notes that since the “triangle” was broken, the first key goal could be the $ 2,676 mark in December. It corresponds to the width of this geometric shape, formed during the downward price movement.