- Wave 1(up) 6,000 to 11,788
Wave 2 (down)11,788 to 8,342
Wave 3 (up) TBD projected to be around the 28,400 level
Wave 4 (down) near the 20k level
Wave 5 (up) near 42,000 level
Additionally, so far, we have held above the 200 day moving average and successfully defended the headline grabbing (yet highly inaccurate) famed Death Cross, when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average.
The quarterly trading zones are very wide, 3,000 to 30,000 which means we can rally up to 28k and still have no quarterly buy signals, making Q2 trading zones a heck of a lot more narrow which while compressed allow very aggressive trading with high probability outcomes and a very biased (bull or bear depending on which side of the zones we are) and clearly defined trend.
A couple of things coming up that could catapult BTCUSD and the entire crypto complex to new loftier highs:
As we move into the second quarter of 2018 new money will be getting put to work by family offices, institutional investors and the large wave of individual investors who will jump on board when the daily price moves up again begin to draw positive headlines.
March 2018 BTC contract is the last contract priced as a monthly expiration, from now on contracts will expire every March, June, September and December. This should open things up a bit and allow bigger traders and hedgers to take larger positions over time.
US Tax Refunds
At this point it's not a certainty, analysis never is, however I'm taking a very small long position and have a plan to continue to add to it as we either confirm or fail.