Lots of things happened between my last post and now. Fed pumped Trillions in, 30M people were having $9,000+ in unemployment lump sums plus $600 a week, innnnflation worries began to grab hold, Bitcoin gained more general traction as a limited asset aka Gold'ish (its first ever real utility although still in infancy to be confirmed proven) as more and more funds begin dabbling more and more into it as a hedge hold, etc. etc.
Although my fundamentals for a Depression is something I still believe 100% in as the economy is going to drag along, health worry will still linger, schooling kids at home as a burden for work production, less business, less jobs, no money for people to spend, etc. etc.; I just am not sure where Bitcoin falls into it.
It has broken a huge major downtrend line, but I don't see it truly turning into All Time Highs until it is retested. Which I think may come when there is a general overall sell-off in all equities here soon as stimulus is dried up, and likely nothing coming for awhile.
There is alot of various financial sectors that are extremely stressed and bubble-like. MILLIONS of people skipping their mortgage payments into 'permissioned' forebearances to pay for their new car or gamble in the stock market, people blowing their entire Unemployment backpay sums and $600/wk into new cars that have very poor future in their jobs even being available soon, laid off already, or never hired back. Big job skills shift, many jobs never coming back, and those unskilled will find work in things not near their potential. Now we have MILLIONS of people with no money left scrambling to pay Sept's bills with either selling off their stocks or trying to do unethical returns of things they could not afford and should have saved in cash from the stimulus/unemployment (aka Amazon A to Z claims, Ebay claims, Paypal claims, etc. anything where its almost a guaranteed win for the buyer regardless). I'd imagine chargebacks for credit companies are flying through the roof as we head into Sept.
You have a crap load of sub-prime people running around here broke with obligations of depreciating assets (like car auto loans) with no jobs or soon to have no jobs. You have a limited supply of housing causing a false sense of "housing boom" when in reality, housing market is a lagging indicator meaning it's the last to go so it's the final peak before it goes down. Once supply of houses for sale goes back up, demand will decrease as health scares fade away + people having less money overall to spend + job security really stressing to deter buying a big house purchase. In order for me to buy a Big Ol House for cheap, someone has to lose theirs.. zero sum game.
Before it's all said and done; sub-prime people are stressing the system and they will once again crash something here in a year from now. I just don't know what it is yet or when... But there is definitely a secondary Black Swan brewing in the background as we speak.
Anyways, back to Bitcoin. I will continue to just swing trade in and out of Bitcoin until I see the economy better and equities across the map less-bubble like.
Right now, people are buying stocks of companies that don't even have actual products, just promises (Nikola, Kodak meds, etc)... It smells just like the good ol' SHITCOIN MOON days. Eventually retail money loses power (which is now) and no new money comes in. Only the same ol dumb money shifting around 3-4 stocks that is falsely holding up the index prices. The smart money is sitting in money markets sidelines in the trillions.
The only new money coming into the stock market right now is from people using loans to gamble and revenge trade in stocks. Those sidelines trillions haven't made a budge.
25 MILLION people were getting $600/week (not including that huge $9k+ backpay lump sum).. That is $15,000,000,000 BILLION dollars EVERYYYYY WEEK in June and July. If conservatively, just 1 out of 10 people took that and spent 10% of it into stocks (which given the pool of boomers and millennials who make the majority of the unemployed & saw a second chance at winning the Great Recession) is a very very conservative number and likely much more... Than that is roughly 2,500,000 people putting a total of $150,000,000 into the stock market EVERY WEEK on an extremely under-estimated guess.. Essentially, you have the power of a new hedge fund entering the stock market every week... It would easily over-power the smart money and any whales/market makers.
Now that, that is over...
The game now is all about reacting to whatever the FED does. If they mention QE, pour money in, when they mention slowing or stopping QE, you take your money out. Rinse, repeat, until the stressed sector Black Swan eats everybody for lunch in the next year or so.
Although my fundamentals for a Depression is something I still believe 100% in as the economy is going to drag along, health worry will still linger, schooling kids at home as a burden for work production, less business, less jobs, no money for people to spend, etc. etc.; I just am not sure where Bitcoin falls into it.
It has broken a huge major downtrend line, but I don't see it truly turning into All Time Highs until it is retested. Which I think may come when there is a general overall sell-off in all equities here soon as stimulus is dried up, and likely nothing coming for awhile.
There is alot of various financial sectors that are extremely stressed and bubble-like. MILLIONS of people skipping their mortgage payments into 'permissioned' forebearances to pay for their new car or gamble in the stock market, people blowing their entire Unemployment backpay sums and $600/wk into new cars that have very poor future in their jobs even being available soon, laid off already, or never hired back. Big job skills shift, many jobs never coming back, and those unskilled will find work in things not near their potential. Now we have MILLIONS of people with no money left scrambling to pay Sept's bills with either selling off their stocks or trying to do unethical returns of things they could not afford and should have saved in cash from the stimulus/unemployment (aka Amazon A to Z claims, Ebay claims, Paypal claims, etc. anything where its almost a guaranteed win for the buyer regardless). I'd imagine chargebacks for credit companies are flying through the roof as we head into Sept.
You have a crap load of sub-prime people running around here broke with obligations of depreciating assets (like car auto loans) with no jobs or soon to have no jobs. You have a limited supply of housing causing a false sense of "housing boom" when in reality, housing market is a lagging indicator meaning it's the last to go so it's the final peak before it goes down. Once supply of houses for sale goes back up, demand will decrease as health scares fade away + people having less money overall to spend + job security really stressing to deter buying a big house purchase. In order for me to buy a Big Ol House for cheap, someone has to lose theirs.. zero sum game.
Before it's all said and done; sub-prime people are stressing the system and they will once again crash something here in a year from now. I just don't know what it is yet or when... But there is definitely a secondary Black Swan brewing in the background as we speak.
Anyways, back to Bitcoin. I will continue to just swing trade in and out of Bitcoin until I see the economy better and equities across the map less-bubble like.
Right now, people are buying stocks of companies that don't even have actual products, just promises (Nikola, Kodak meds, etc)... It smells just like the good ol' SHITCOIN MOON days. Eventually retail money loses power (which is now) and no new money comes in. Only the same ol dumb money shifting around 3-4 stocks that is falsely holding up the index prices. The smart money is sitting in money markets sidelines in the trillions.
The only new money coming into the stock market right now is from people using loans to gamble and revenge trade in stocks. Those sidelines trillions haven't made a budge.
25 MILLION people were getting $600/week (not including that huge $9k+ backpay lump sum).. That is $15,000,000,000 BILLION dollars EVERYYYYY WEEK in June and July. If conservatively, just 1 out of 10 people took that and spent 10% of it into stocks (which given the pool of boomers and millennials who make the majority of the unemployed & saw a second chance at winning the Great Recession) is a very very conservative number and likely much more... Than that is roughly 2,500,000 people putting a total of $150,000,000 into the stock market EVERY WEEK on an extremely under-estimated guess.. Essentially, you have the power of a new hedge fund entering the stock market every week... It would easily over-power the smart money and any whales/market makers.
Now that, that is over...
The game now is all about reacting to whatever the FED does. If they mention QE, pour money in, when they mention slowing or stopping QE, you take your money out. Rinse, repeat, until the stressed sector Black Swan eats everybody for lunch in the next year or so.