Caution: the weekly downtrend line has yet to be crossed!
I found something on the weekly view that should make us very cautious about Bitcoin’s April rally and understand that we might not be completely out of the bear market.
That is the bear market trend line that is drawn from the ATH (all time high) candle wick to the very next candle wick down on the weekly chart.
When I connected to 2 top wicks with magnet tool then extended the line down, I found that all the recent price action over the past week has been suppressed by this trend line.
This was very surprising to me because all along we have been proclaiming (myself included) to have exited the downtrend line and put the bear market behind us.
Many of us have drawn the resistance trend line from the ATH top wick and the next reaction high wick using the daily time frame or even lower time frames and that has created a steeper line that has already been crossed. So what’s going on here?
Take a look at the chart below. We see that with our trend line locked onto the top wicks with magnet tool on the weekly view, the price stays bound to all the candle body’s tops on the daily view for those same price points:
The only time the trend line gets compromised is at the very top when the price pushed up one last time to 19.9k, which could technically be viewed as an outlier especially with all the other reaction highs lining up on this trend line perfectly.
The next major support is the support line below which is drawn from July 2017 to the end of March 2018’s lows. If we do continue to fall down until we reach this support line, then $7.5k becomes to next major support which is also a strong area of support that I have noted in this idea over a week ago:
This is something that myself and many others have probably overlooked and it doesn't mean we won't break out of it in the future, but this week's candle is looking pretty grim right now and I'd be surprised if we don't at least drop to that support line I noted.
That is the bear market trend line that is drawn from the ATH (all time high) candle wick to the very next candle wick down on the weekly chart.
When I connected to 2 top wicks with magnet tool then extended the line down, I found that all the recent price action over the past week has been suppressed by this trend line.
This was very surprising to me because all along we have been proclaiming (myself included) to have exited the downtrend line and put the bear market behind us.
Many of us have drawn the resistance trend line from the ATH top wick and the next reaction high wick using the daily time frame or even lower time frames and that has created a steeper line that has already been crossed. So what’s going on here?
Take a look at the chart below. We see that with our trend line locked onto the top wicks with magnet tool on the weekly view, the price stays bound to all the candle body’s tops on the daily view for those same price points:
The next major support is the support line below which is drawn from July 2017 to the end of March 2018’s lows. If we do continue to fall down until we reach this support line, then $7.5k becomes to next major support which is also a strong area of support that I have noted in this idea over a week ago:
This is something that myself and many others have probably overlooked and it doesn't mean we won't break out of it in the future, but this week's candle is looking pretty grim right now and I'd be surprised if we don't at least drop to that support line I noted.