We are still maintaining a swing trade long from 10,150. It is against us, but our stop has not been reached. And current price action may be setting up for yet another buy signal. During the retrace from 11K to 9350, we maintained our position and stuck to our plan. We don't chase every trade, we don't short, and we don't over complicate anything. Sure we have missed some moves, but our performance since January has been stable and CONSISTENT and showing a return of around 10%.
I must repeat this often because traders are so distracted by frivolous information: LESS IS MORE. provides a road map, geometric proportions provide locations, and candle sticks provide confirmations. Developing your OWN perspective does NOT require much more.
Based on these tools, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a broad Wave 2 corrective sequence. Within this sequence, certain geometric proportions are going to carry some weight. The 9750 support region is ONE such area. I use the word region because price can fluctuate wildly around the precise level. And so far it is not only staying near the general area, it is also in the process of developing a broader formation. Within that, an is forming which can lead to a new buy signal.
The 9750 Region is a proportion to the entire previous impulse structure originating from the 3150 low. To us that means the general area is a HIGH PROBABILITY REVERSAL ZONE. That means two things: SHORTS are extremely risky in this area, NO MATTER what your 1 HR chart says, or your 1 HR chart guru. Small time frames are notorious for blinding you from the bigger picture. Secondly, reversal formations followed by a buy signal have GREATER POTENTIAL. Our targets are place strategically within the 11 to 12K .
In summary, the fact that Bitcoin is slow to make any real progress is a sign of strength that is not obvious to the typical trader or investor. progress means taking out MAJOR supports and closing decisively below them. 9750 was compromised, BUT price is now lingering around 9500 which is NOT significantly lower. A close below 9K is what will increase the chances of a more scenario playing out.
If you find yourself confused, most likely its because you are lacking perspective. The process begins on the larger time frames, not smaller. And without a framework to compare against, you will have hard time generating your own ideas. Many think market timing can be learned by trial and error intuitively, or by simply observing others charts. Sure you can take that route, but prepared for at least a decade long learning curve (to achieve basic proficiency).
Or you can take the route of professional development and begin learning something like . It is a starting point, a proven framework, a way to organize your analytical process, NOT a precise solution. Those looking for perfection and precision are looking in the WRONG place. Over the short term, SENTIMENT is the most powerful driver of ALL financial markets and it is usually messy and imperfect.
Generating a consistent return is NOT about having the best pattern or signal. It is all about weighing probabilities, WAITING for the market to align and PROTECTING capital when the market doesn't agree.
This is the chart that we shared on Sunday with our followers. The buy trigger was 9685. This is an alternate trade to the other swing trade that we are managing from 10,150. As you can see our targets are proportional and within reason.
The 9750 support has proven itself so far. Many do not realize, this is NOT a game of precision or absolute indicators. It is about evaluating sentiment and that can be done through observing price behavior around levels, and confirming with candle sticks.
My objective here is to provide some PERSPECTIVE on where we think the market is going using some technical examples. Following others will NOT provide any long term value. Ideas must come from within. If you don't find my perspective of any use, there are many alternatives to evaluate within this community. I appreciate all the criticism, but at least provide concrete chart examples that can provide value for the rest of the community members to learn something from.
I've made 10% profit over the last 2 days (as I was a bit nervous getting into it early) while the 'guru' long-term investor who was supposed to give me advice on when to enter a trade sits out waiting for the "right period" for the long-term.
People are probably going to say...'oh but it's beginner's luck'. No it ain't. I lost 50% in the first week and I made sure I wasn't going to make the same mistakes again, studied carefully drilling down from long-term to short term, use a few different but simple tools to provide multiple aligned signals, and voila!
Your analysis is spot on. And I can see this trending up very clearly. But it's BTC and I'm not taking my eyes off of it. :)