I posted a short term chart to the bitcoin room a few days ago to indicate what the pattern structure suggested as likely support levels if that upper key support was broken: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/m/ac4e9...
As we saw on 8/2, the wave C of 4 drop stopped at 465.28 - just inside the lower blue support box on the chart above. This is significant because it is the point (within one dollar) where wave C equals wave A - the ideal support for a wave C corrective wave. So we now have a perfect-looking wave 4 bottom to potentially resume the long term uptrend.
However, there's a problem. The drop for wave C of 4 counts best as a 3 wave move on the , when it should more ideally be 5 waves. It's possible that a trend reversal can occur from this type of incomplete bottomming structure, but it doesn't provide full confidence. There are also other issues with starting a new uptrend from the current level, such as declining .
So. in order to trust that we have now completed all of wave 4, and that the long term uptrend has resumed, we need to see the . from the 8/2 low taken out in a 5 wave impulsive structure - around the 600 level.
If we fail before or around 600 (where the blue wave iv is marked on the chart) in a 3 wave move, the pattern would point to a drop to the lower around 320.
So, now we wait and see...the pattern structure since the 6/22 low is consistent with wave 4 behavior - at multiple time scales - and the long term expectation remains . We'll just need final confirmation to have confidence that wave 4 is, in fact, complete...or if a drop to lower lows is required first.