Of course, this is only hypothetical based upon previous price movements. The result of the BTC (due March 11th) if successfully passed could likely lead to a new price paradigm.
If we see BTC keep upward momentum outwith the red then we know that it is exceptionally and ready for new highs in 2017-2018. On the other hand, if the price continues downward, we can expect a test of the bottom around August 2018 and test of a new high around February-March 2020.
Various sources have highlighted the chance of the ETF succeeding as between 10% - 25%. Which means that as the date approaches we get on shakier ground. And if it doesn't pass, the fall will be substantial. We also have to stay abreast of any news coming out of China. Deposits and withdrawals are still on hold across most exchanges and we also tend to get news from the PBOC when BTC is at a high which turns sentiment negative. Trade safe!
I suggest you learn how it works... If bitcoin dropped to $200, yes many miners would drop out as it wouldn't be profitable. Upon the massive miner exodus, however, those who stayed WOULD be profitable (barely) just as they are today. And FYI, the bitcoin experiment already failed. No scaling is coming. We're looking at 3-4 transactions per second (not enough to run some peoples single ebay stores let alone be a world currency) for the next 5+ years - far more time than ethereum (or other crypto) would need to take the spotlight. I do believe many fools will be very surprised in the coming years. Don't take your eyes off the ball - the ball doesn't stay the same, the ball is innovation. Hint: Bitcoin is not the ball.
What the chart presented here does is strip out the day-to-day noise and provide a safety net for understanding the market when it peaks or when it troughs over time.
Long-term I see a bullish trend for BTC. The pitchfork clearly shows that BTC is moving in an upwards direction over time but it also shows that over time the price deviates from the Mean (as is expected).
What the Sine waves do is help provide an indication that the deviations from the Mean - the peaks and troughs - appear to be happening in a predictable time-frame (there may be lots of reasons for that which can be researched in order to give an even more substantial picture of what we can expect going forward).
The blue diagonal support/resistance pattern doesn't mean we will see a drop to $200 (though it's not impossible), what it does is provide a very basic indication whether the BTC price has started to break out of it's hitherto existing support/resistance paradigm.
The red support/resistance lines combined with the pitchfork do suggest however that a drop to $400 support is possible (not probable). I wouldn't take that as being a bearish statement, merely an opportunity.
What the turquoise sine wave appears to show currently is that we are within or just about to exit a period of peak price, at which point BTC price can be expected to fall. If the price breaks out of this Sine wave pattern on the upside then the Sine wave needs to be re-aligned or scrapped.
On the other hand, the red sine wave shows that a price of $1400 could still be possible in the next several weeks. That would mean a new all time high. But this will coincide with major FOMO... and the usual other indications of a price bubble.
And what happens to bubbles?
What we then have is the potential of a rapid price decline, in come the shorts, FUD and new rounds of stories proclaiming that "Bitcoin is Dead", new rounds of financial, legal and political pressure and downright negativity. And speculators move their money into Alts for more rapid returns.
Of course, something could happen to make the BTC price completely break out of the red sine wave. In which case we have major bullish sentiment. But the price always has to return to the Mean and the pitchfork shows us that even with a major price rise, a drop to $800 could still be expected into the 2020's.
Do you believe the price will only ever go up up up?
Sometimes it's best to play the devil's advocate.
These opinions are mine alone and shouldn't be considered as trading advice. Always conduct your own research before making a trade. Only the whales know which way the waves will flow... and sometimes even they get it wrong.