I know it is way to early to call this, but I could see something like this happening. I remember a large forming after the rise in April 2013. It was a long period of consolidation followed by a quick drop and then an extreme run from ~110 to ~1000 (or ~ 2000 if your were trading on Gox). We may be in a similar period of consolidation right now. The dotted yellow line marks where I think the bottom of this cup is. If this pans out we will still likely have a rocky and highly volatile market but it should on average stay on course of the orange cup.