Following our recent "fakeout" and subsequent mini sell off, we have seen a nice little recovery rally. However, there are signs indicating that the bulls are struggling to hold this territory and less so to push beyond.
In our short term group of timeframes (90, 3h, 6h, 12h)
In the 6h & 12h the Energy is higher than the Green EMA, this is bearish. We can see that the Red RSI looks like it's about to cross above 50. If this happens it would trigger an upward pressure race. We would need to see the Red RSI in the daily to CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50 in order to see a chance of resuming upward pressure.
We also currently have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 90 & the Red RSI in the 3h.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 90 a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 90 CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the 6h the Red RSI appears to be turning back down and looks as it may make contact with the Green EMA as it falls, if we close like this we will see the Energy cross below 50 on the next candle indicating a period of downward pressure.
The duration of this period of downward pressure can be inferred from higher timeframes, we will cross this bridge if and when we come to it.
In the Near Term group of timeframes (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d) the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all this group indicating upward pressure. However we have to be very cautious as the Red RSI in the daily is currently looking like crossing bearish below the Blue LSMA. Also, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are making contact with the Green EMA as it falls in the 3d, if we close like this as seems likely in 1d 11 hours the Energy will cross below 50 on the next candle indicating a period of downward pressure.
We must bear in mind that downward pressure will not necessarily be reflected in significant downward price action, but if this plays out we will see sideways at best, downwards at worst.
In the Mid Term group of timeframes:
We need to be cautious of the large gap between the Green EMA & the Energy in the 6d, 9d & 12d, this isn't itself bearish but suggests a precarious balance in which we cannot rule out a precipitous drop. This could happen quickly.
In summary:
I have marked this as neutral as we can still go either way, however I'm erring on the bearish currently. Opening of positions is not indicated by this analysis and confiration one way or another should be sought before doing so.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Near Term
Mid Term
In our short term group of timeframes (90, 3h, 6h, 12h)
In the 6h & 12h the Energy is higher than the Green EMA, this is bearish. We can see that the Red RSI looks like it's about to cross above 50. If this happens it would trigger an upward pressure race. We would need to see the Red RSI in the daily to CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50 in order to see a chance of resuming upward pressure.
We also currently have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 90 & the Red RSI in the 3h.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 90 a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 90 CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 3h CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 3h and the Red RSI in the 6h etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the 6h the Red RSI appears to be turning back down and looks as it may make contact with the Green EMA as it falls, if we close like this we will see the Energy cross below 50 on the next candle indicating a period of downward pressure.
The duration of this period of downward pressure can be inferred from higher timeframes, we will cross this bridge if and when we come to it.
In the Near Term group of timeframes (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d) the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all this group indicating upward pressure. However we have to be very cautious as the Red RSI in the daily is currently looking like crossing bearish below the Blue LSMA. Also, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are making contact with the Green EMA as it falls in the 3d, if we close like this as seems likely in 1d 11 hours the Energy will cross below 50 on the next candle indicating a period of downward pressure.
We must bear in mind that downward pressure will not necessarily be reflected in significant downward price action, but if this plays out we will see sideways at best, downwards at worst.
In the Mid Term group of timeframes:
We need to be cautious of the large gap between the Green EMA & the Energy in the 6d, 9d & 12d, this isn't itself bearish but suggests a precarious balance in which we cannot rule out a precipitous drop. This could happen quickly.
In summary:
I have marked this as neutral as we can still go either way, however I'm erring on the bearish currently. Opening of positions is not indicated by this analysis and confiration one way or another should be sought before doing so.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Near Term
Mid Term