Hi everyone,
Based on my previous idea (linked below), I believe 2022 H1 is very bad for risky assets, especially crypto. I'm not giving 100% timing advice, I'm giving aa view on to how I see the upcoming months.
Let's see what we have here:
This chart doesn't intend to perfect any timing, nor it is a financial advice. It's rather my advice like 4th time to be very careful with longs out there, don't be fools and gamble for someone else's empty calls!
Invalidation to this idea: breaking up from the channel without reaching Target 2, e.g. reversing from 100 week MA. My bearish bias would not change easily on that in H1 2022 because of the macro situation in global economy, but this idea would not be valid for sure.
Cheers,
Antonio
Based on my previous idea (linked below), I believe 2022 H1 is very bad for risky assets, especially crypto. I'm not giving 100% timing advice, I'm giving aa view on to how I see the upcoming months.
Let's see what we have here:
- Down trend channel (seriously, I can't believe anyone thinks the uptrend is still going on at this moment, there are no new higher highs, or anything to grab into). The solution is to look at it unbiased. I came to this conclusion in October, while trying to find a good point to long on ETH, MATIC, while thinking BTC price is the indicator to the overall market and analyzing it. BUT that's not at all costs, and that's not because I think price can only go up. So What I think, that now it goes down, and at this point it should be obvious to anyone.
- My Target 1 has been reached, and it even went a bit lower by now, testing and breaking the 37k. At this point I change my >50% bias on reaching Target 2 to >75%
- I drew to paths, both touches the lower end of the channel at a second time, then reverses the trend from mid-channel at the third down move. Green is a more optimistic one (reversing in target 2 area), Red is a more pessimistic one to watch.
- Incoming touch with 100 week Moving average around 30-32k, which might provide support, however I think it won't be a reversal point for long.
- Incoming touch with 200week Moving average around 20-24k, which might provide support in the green path. On red path it will temporary fall below it, and reverse in a few months.
This chart doesn't intend to perfect any timing, nor it is a financial advice. It's rather my advice like 4th time to be very careful with longs out there, don't be fools and gamble for someone else's empty calls!
Invalidation to this idea: breaking up from the channel without reaching Target 2, e.g. reversing from 100 week MA. My bearish bias would not change easily on that in H1 2022 because of the macro situation in global economy, but this idea would not be valid for sure.
Cheers,
Antonio
Comment:
Previous idea followed here:
