Worst case is that history repeats itself and we touch 8k 6-12 months from now.
Plan accordingly so you don't get rekt. Hope you all rook some profits on the way up!
I'm preparing for at least 6 months of crazy bounces and then bear/neutral for rest of year.
"5k 6-12 months from now. "
That's another tick in the box that we continue moving down on all timeframes 4hr +. Expect another shakeout in the next 2 weeks. Equally a bounce/bulltrap would not surprise me over the next month (see 2013).
Trend lines and support look like medium term we could be hitting 7-8k as previously suggested in first post. I'm a buyer from 8k downwards.
Now going off RSI on the weekly, we tend to bounce in this area. So a multi-week bounce from here is worth playing if your buy orders are getting hit at these levels.
I do see a lot of confluence a couple months out around 3-5k.
Additionally zooming out to monthly paints a brutal picture of support at old bubble highs from 3-1.5k.
I'm largely out but looking forward to the opportunities I see going forward.
will it hold?
Stay safe out there.
200MA holding along with that channel we've been holding for weeks now. Past few days have present nice R/R.
do I believe we will go as low as 1300? No. Is it possible? Sure. Buy zones just based on previous highs.
I still think we head down this year, even if we bump up to 13/14k from here. I believe we will drop more brutally than I have sketched out in this screenshot. I think the bottom may be in by end of year/start of next.
It appears to me a lot of new money is walking away, people are taking a break, taking stock- wondering what happened the past year or perhaps being thankful for the opportunities handed to them.
If we spend too long below the 200MA things will start to get sketchy, obviously.
Good news is that there will be lots of buying opportunities going forward. Stay safe out there.
There appears to be a consensus that this bear market will be a lot shorter than previous ones due to fundamentals. I'm still on the fence about this and will let the price action decide my outlook, though I do lean towards agreeing. Still I expect a total of at *least* 9 months of blood.
Right now it's all doom, if the selling accelerates I'd agree with the short-term bears. But we are in a bear market after all.
Patience is required. There are hungry buyers at lower levels and panic sellers right now (whats left of them).
revisiting my resistance/buy levels, similar to a post a few days back.
I'll probably be more bull if we hit 12-13k in the near term.
We could have a decent bound all the way up to 7-8k from here as we had a fat candle from 5800 all the way to around 6400, but don't get suckered in. Short every rally.
Still buying below 6k. Heavier when we hit 3-4k. It is safer now to start dollar cost averaging in than it has been for nearly 2/3 of a year. But I still expect downside.