BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is it boyz. Party is over, expect some noice bounces along the way. We're already pretty oversold at this juncture. After this bounce I think we hit 9k. Maybe 8. Regardless BTC *always* bounces with this kind of blood.

Worst case is that history repeats itself and we touch 8k 6-12 months from now.

Plan accordingly so you don't get rekt. Hope you all rook some profits on the way up!

I'm preparing for at least 6 months of crazy bounces and then bear/neutral for rest of year.

Comment: to clarify- I am a long term bull, but this has needed to cool off for months now. This is the market acting as any normal market does under conditions of extreme greed and fear.
Comment: Meant to write:
"5k 6-12 months from now. "
Comment: no bounce @ 10, only blood, maybe we bounce from here, real rektage ongoing which gives me pause- the knife can cut deep, wear gloves.
Comment: Enjoying this bounce, as expected in extreme panic sells. Expecting more consolidation/panic in the coming weeks. I'm adjusting my exposure here getting ready for the next leg down. Equally I'm ready for a rally come the spring.

Comment: That bounce was fun for a while, but now we're bleeding heavily again. Monthly RSI topped out as in 2013 (should have mentioned that in my original post), 4hr cross-recross on double ichi:

That's another tick in the box that we continue moving down on all timeframes 4hr +. Expect another shakeout in the next 2 weeks. Equally a bounce/bulltrap would not surprise me over the next month (see 2013).
Comment: Support is breaking, was starting to doubt myself this past week but it's playing out as expected. We need to bleed all the fresh meat and digest the moves of last year.

Trend lines and support look like medium term we could be hitting 7-8k as previously suggested in first post. I'm a buyer from 8k downwards.
Comment: I have kept an eye on the monthly RSI since 2013, since I mentioned it previously, here it is beautifully illustrated. If the fractal plays out similarly then we hit 2-4k easy peezy. Personally I don't believe we see anything lower than 3. But what do I know? I'm just some dude on the the internet:

Comment: blood.
Comment: We tend to bounce with these kind of sell offs and RSI readings not to mention the almighty 200 MA


Comment: if the 200MA does not hold, we burn up in the atmosphere.
Comment: This is likely the bounce before the bear. Let's see if we hit 10k
Comment: Bounce was short lived and dissapointing. My SL hit. Time to zoom out.

Now going off RSI on the weekly, we tend to bounce in this area. So a multi-week bounce from here is worth playing if your buy orders are getting hit at these levels.

I do see a lot of confluence a couple months out around 3-5k.

Additionally zooming out to monthly paints a brutal picture of support at old bubble highs from 3-1.5k.

I'm largely out but looking forward to the opportunities I see going forward.
Comment: Also, a warning to crypto newbies- do you think you can handle months of downside if we actually turn bear for most of the year? These kind of gruelling corrections can make or break you in bitcoin. Not fudding, just saying that a lot of OGs in crypto have been through what you are enduring right now and come out of the other side, many much wiser. If you're itching or losing sleep, time to re-assess your risk management.
Comment: under 7k, now this is the blood I've been expecting since 10k. Remember- eventually blood == bounce.
Comment: While I don't expect us to go straight down, a total crash has confluence at 2.7k and 1.3k. Just lines, might not mean a thing.

Comment: perhaps enough rekt for one week. interim bottoms tend to be found with RSI at these levels on the weekly:

Comment: Well that blew through my thoughts of a bounce. It is important to remember there is actually very little support since 3k because we just moved too fast to establish any.
Comment: Bounced of the old long term trend line, weekly is currently a hammer, too early to call a complete reversal but it appears to be looking that way.
Comment: could we be breaking the short term down trend? Get your space suits on guyz.

Comment: this doesn't appear to be a bull trap and if it is I'm not convinced we'll see anything near as violent as before, institutions have taken their positions and whales have eaten their fill- consolidation and then retesting new highs could be on the cards.
Comment: Approaching the major downtrend from the ATH and bulltrap:

will it hold?
Comment: it was clear resistance and knocked us back down. Are we playing out a similar factal of 2013 where the 50 and 200 MA cross and then present resistance instead of support?

Comment: while I would love to see a 2012 fractal (3-5x upside from here) volume and new money are not there, so I can't help remaining resolutely bearish on my outlook. Fundamentally bitcoin is great, but is it overvalued right now? Are we about to shake out the newbies (again) with another bloodbath preceeding an at least year long bear?
Comment: Selloff continues- brutal. Seems the down trend is really establishing itself:

Stay safe out there.
Comment: Monthly continues to indicate more downside, we are currently below 200 MA. Let's hope we don't break 7500 to the downside. More blood then.

200MA holding along with that channel we've been holding for weeks now. Past few days have present nice R/R.
Comment: looks like indecision to me. we are riding that 200MA for dear life. Not sure what these past up and down days were about. Looked like we closed the week weak but not feeble, now that little pump has been deflated. But like I wrote, still holding that 200MA.


do I believe we will go as low as 1300? No. Is it possible? Sure. Buy zones just based on previous highs.

I still think we head down this year, even if we bump up to 13/14k from here. I believe we will drop more brutally than I have sketched out in this screenshot. I think the bottom may be in by end of year/start of next.

It appears to me a lot of new money is walking away, people are taking a break, taking stock- wondering what happened the past year or perhaps being thankful for the opportunities handed to them.
Comment: This will be my last update for a while, i think my analysis and updates have said all I can about this. Won't be commenting until my targets get hit. It appears to me we are in a strong down trend with no end in sight, though I do expect a weak bounce from current levels- 8k-ish

If we spend too long below the 200MA things will start to get sketchy, obviously.

Good news is that there will be lots of buying opportunities going forward. Stay safe out there.
Comment: Lambo order cancelled, buying second hand Canta on credit to bulk buy ramen now.
Comment: We're hitting the 50 week MA, in 2014 we consolidated round there and finally broke under it for the rest of the bear. Longer term coiners are probably dipping their toes in right now. Due to the support of the 50 week MA I expect a little bounce and consolidation before resumption of the bear market.

There appears to be a consensus that this bear market will be a lot shorter than previous ones due to fundamentals. I'm still on the fence about this and will let the price action decide my outlook, though I do lean towards agreeing. Still I expect a total of at *least* 9 months of blood.
Right now it's all doom, if the selling accelerates I'd agree with the short-term bears. But we are in a bear market after all.

Patience is required. There are hungry buyers at lower levels and panic sellers right now (whats left of them).

revisiting my resistance/buy levels, similar to a post a few days back.
Comment: I expected this pump to break through the twist here. But it just doesn't seem to have the juice to. If we do, I'm in sell the rip mode. I don't know about any of you but I haven't noticed anything fundamentally changing in the btc landscape lately.

Comment: We've been unable to break 10k. We either range or hit 6-7k again. Buying in this range is just too risky IMO.

I'll probably be more bull if we hit 12-13k in the near term.
Comment: This is why we can't have nice things. Bear flag + low volume == ded.
Comment: Bulls out in force donating blood.
Comment: Now that we are closer to a bottom than a top, let's talk buy targets. Here are mine below in green, will be laddering in buy orders:

Trade closed: target reached: Hit the high 5s as per my original post back in January- pretty much nailed the time frame. Clearly this time has not been different. So I think this log has served it's purpose. Hope you learned something about bubbles along the way.

We could have a decent bound all the way up to 7-8k from here as we had a fat candle from 5800 all the way to around 6400, but don't get suckered in. Short every rally.

Still buying below 6k. Heavier when we hit 3-4k. It is safer now to start dollar cost averaging in than it has been for nearly 2/3 of a year. But I still expect downside.

Good luck!

Related Ideas

hi bro i am ozzo from ernies discord big up
jonnyfram CrissCristofer
@CrissCristofer, hey welcome :)
It's not comparable, blockchain ecosystem was non existant back in the days
@Sessay, 'this time it's different'
@Sessay, I'd like to clarify, I'm not trying to force the issue- I'll update the idea.
+1 Reply
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