This is a interim follow-up to analysis from May 24th:
Except for the "Imminent" bounce (which happened already) assumption made there were proven 100% right.
Price failed to fall below 27.700$ and nowadays reached first resistance area at 42.000-44.000$.
Basically that's a return-to-mean scenario: price bounced over MA50/W (blue) and pulled back t MA20/W (red).
The latter is midline of weekly Bollinger bands, hence NEUTRAL short trend line.
So for now we have to factor a technical bounce .
We had three previous examples of such bounce across years, both within the first part of a correction, after a ATH.
In both cases it all ended with a bull trap not far from MA20/W, after a +55 to +100% bounce from the low.
Mind the fact we'r already +50% up from the 28.600$ low.
I'd say we are about to determine whether we're facing either a bull trap, or a breakout implying 64.000$ was possibly not the top.
Speaking of mere bias, MACD seems currently favouring a further notch up in price, as well as RSI/Stoch RSI.
Hash Ribbons may paint a bule dot within days, eventually. That's all good, but still inconclusive for now.
This is a very tricky and extremely risky area, so caution is unavoidable.
For now i'd recommend caution and watching carefully price action as this is a CRITICAL crossroad.
Mind the fact bears keep in charge till MA20/W get pierced on weekly close matter and volume. No matter what.
Neutral from MA20/W up to Parabolic SAR (over 48.000$), yet still at risk of bull trap.
Finally, bullish if Parabolic SAR can be pierced and kept for a few weeks.
That's all for now, hope you appreciate.
As usual DYOD.
Except for the "Imminent" bounce (which happened already) assumption made there were proven 100% right.
Price failed to fall below 27.700$ and nowadays reached first resistance area at 42.000-44.000$.
Basically that's a return-to-mean scenario: price bounced over MA50/W (blue) and pulled back t MA20/W (red).
The latter is midline of weekly Bollinger bands, hence NEUTRAL short trend line.
So for now we have to factor a technical bounce .
We had three previous examples of such bounce across years, both within the first part of a correction, after a ATH.
In both cases it all ended with a bull trap not far from MA20/W, after a +55 to +100% bounce from the low.
Mind the fact we'r already +50% up from the 28.600$ low.
I'd say we are about to determine whether we're facing either a bull trap, or a breakout implying 64.000$ was possibly not the top.
Speaking of mere bias, MACD seems currently favouring a further notch up in price, as well as RSI/Stoch RSI.
Hash Ribbons may paint a bule dot within days, eventually. That's all good, but still inconclusive for now.
This is a very tricky and extremely risky area, so caution is unavoidable.
For now i'd recommend caution and watching carefully price action as this is a CRITICAL crossroad.
Mind the fact bears keep in charge till MA20/W get pierced on weekly close matter and volume. No matter what.
Neutral from MA20/W up to Parabolic SAR (over 48.000$), yet still at risk of bull trap.
Finally, bullish if Parabolic SAR can be pierced and kept for a few weeks.
That's all for now, hope you appreciate.
As usual DYOD.
Comment:
Blue dot awaiting confirmation.
Comment:
Mind the fact a Blue dot may anticipate a trend change by days if not weeks.
Look back to previous occurrences. So no hurry.
Price failed to pierce MA20/W on volume and keeps into the area.
Maybe this tree has to be shaken once more.
Anyway, Parabolic SAR got down to 47.700$ and that's important.
For now price still sits the 42.000-44.000$ critical area.
Hence no change, despite some more bullish bias confirmation.
Watch it, be patient and play safe.
Look back to previous occurrences. So no hurry.
Price failed to pierce MA20/W on volume and keeps into the area.
Maybe this tree has to be shaken once more.
Anyway, Parabolic SAR got down to 47.700$ and that's important.
For now price still sits the 42.000-44.000$ critical area.
Hence no change, despite some more bullish bias confirmation.
Watch it, be patient and play safe.
Comment:
Close to Parabolic SAR:
Clearly on the edge.
Clearly on the edge.
Comment:
LIkely to move somewhere into 43,2-42,2 area.
If fails to bounce from there further weakness likely.
If fails to bounce from there further weakness likely.
Comment:
Anyway, volume down and failure to reverse parabolic SAR on weekly spell for trouble.
Be cautious.
Be cautious.
Comment:
Still in limbo.
MA20/W is main support.
MA20/W is main support.
