BTC Retest of Ascending Triangle Top and Possible CME Gap Fill

Bitcoin is likely to retest and break through the top of the Ascending Triangle formation before the 3rd Halvening Event some time in May. There are 2 possible scenarios which can play out over the next few weeks: the multi-week support trend line may either hold until the top is reached, or it may be broken in which case a close of the CME gap at 8,560 USD would be in play before swooping back up and breaking through the top of the Ascending Triangle.
I will be looking for positive confirmation of support (ie, a green candle above the purple trend line in the daily chart) before entering any bids. Going below the purple line would be short term bearish and provide good opportunities to place bids at the CME gap.

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Correction: That's a symmetrical triangle formation, not an ascending triangle. Ascending triangles need to have a horizontal resistance line by definition. Regardless, it's a symmetrical triangle formation with a bullish bias at this time due to the bottom of the triangle also being the bottom line of a multiyear (5+ year) channel.

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Short term bear scenario seems to be in play but it could be a bear trap. Staying below the previous support for the next 48 hours or so would help contribute to short term bearish bias even as a golden cross is forming on the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

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I have a small sell position opened at around 9830 as I see a retest of the support/resistance at 9500 as being likely; whether it stays above or below that will determine whether or not this is going straight down to the long term channel bottom or will go there before retesting the top. Could go either way at this point so set stop losses and profit taking accordingly.

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Keeping my ears close to the ground to see which one of these CME gaps close first. Once one of these gaps are filled it will be a beeline to the other one. I'm wagering that the bottom gap at 8,560 will fill earlier but only after a retest of the previous channel bottom at around 10,000 over the next few days. It's going to be a damn good day when the BTC starts coming in for the long haul in the 8500s.

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This is the price action I'm looking out for although time frame will probably be quicker than it is in the picture.

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Let's see how this triangle resolves itself.

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Let's call a spade a spade, and a diamond top a diamond top.

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Took profit on a leveraged trade from top of the Diamond Top. BTC is now sitting slightly below a support line that has held since January 6th, 2020. I would prefer it to retest the 9800s before going back down and have set my orders accordingly. Unless there is a clear break below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, I will not be shorting at market price.

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I will be shorting any clear break below the previous support at around 9600 or a break below 23.6%. These will switch to buy positions starting at around 8600.

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So it didn't go down as quickly as I thought it would. Looking for a retest now of around 9800 over the next 24-48 hours.

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Likely won't break the resistance because the volume is too low. I'm lowering my sell order to 9670.

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I'm waiting on 9800 to sell.

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The last few days have been choppy with lots of false starts in both directions and without a doubt there were lots of losses to be had by anyone opening positions trying to time the market. I have to admit that having come back to trading after a long absence (although a hodler for a while), there were lots of lessons learned here.
It sucked, but on a more positive note we have some potential channels to guide pivot points on the way down. Ideal prices for buy and sell orders will be somewhere in the boxes, where exactly tbd depending on how the chart unfolds over time.

Trade active:

Buy orders were filled below 8600.

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Target is hodl.

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There is an ascending triangle forming on the 4 hour chart now and there were 2 tests of the 8950 to 9000 level over the last few days, with the most recent one being slightly higher than the previous test. I believe that it will break through within the next 2 days and the most optimistic target is 10800 with resistances at 9200 and 9500 levels.