Hi its turning mecard back again!
been doing lots of other stuff! but i would tend to write time by time.
right now, there are so many noise in small time frame. people talk about channels and candles, bull flags. whether bear market
the truth is, its not. by the impulse from Feb, i sum the move like this. "btc has hit bottom, but bear market is not over". that means, bottom may be put, but still uptrend like 2017 would not come today or tomorrow.
so i think if we only talk about bull flags and channels and candles you would not see the reality.
lets just see the weekly chart.
major resistance at weekly 50ema/50ma. now 5300/5500 area.
i can say we can touch 5500 area, or even break above a little bit more, but that would be fake breakout. this impulse will be done in few weeks period.
only proof is the past. btc has never climbed over 50ma/50ema and went just in the in first try. 'confirm bottom' yes, that is what btc would do.
weekly , very overbought, clinging on the top for several timelines now, and it will head down. when weekly starts to peak downwards, the speed of the drop will be so fast. but now, it is not yet done.
d1 is oversold, so the impulse can be possible up to 50ma area.
BUT...I think that will do this upwards movement. as weekly chart nears close to the , MASSIVE resistance,
i do think move down is plausible.
what matters is now, to next 4~5month, is the CONFIRMATION of bottom. not the NEW WAVE of going up. btc would eventually
drop under weekly and confirm 3000 is the bottom.
i think for some traders, earliest May~End of June/July should be hell. the price now and up to 50ma(5500) and maybe even just more...could be good short entry to hold for more then a month.
buying alts for going long, i think would be june/july time frame.
at that point, i also think Weekly 21ema/50ema lines would curve down. with the major moving averages curved down,
and with oversold situation in short+long time frames, and maybe good news, btc should surpass the major moving averages.
for the time being, entering the market with long perspective is bad, scalping can work.
as for alts, scalping now, waves btc looks good for buying now.
thanks for reading!
btc could go for 5500/5600 area, 50ma weekly.