Crypto hasn't bothered to get up from under it's bedsheets this week or morning for that matter. Instead, crypto has been resting ever so gently, not daring to raise a hand to get up out of bed.
So. We can't really say that this week was a shock. I called out a dramatic fall occurring following the massive impulse movement we saw mid march. What comes up, must come down. And when it comes to the market here is a good rule to note: "When you see an impulse movement up, you should more or less likely expect a fall just as strong to follow or at least be pushed by market makers."
Factors to note
What should we expect next?
While we can't predict the market, we do have these nifty things called Fib lines which give us an indication of a stock or crypto's strength. If we look at the Fib retracement right now we can see we've broken through a few checkpoints however now we are at the point of the most resistance. Personally I expect to see some move back to the upside from here, at least in the short term. But for us to establish any sign of a potential Bull run or real move back to the upside, we're gonna need to see some strength and see bitcoin either stay within this Fib level or move out of it to the upside for some real strength to kick in. Right now investors are dealing with fear from the inflation report as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine which only seems to intensify by the day. The market will likely be happy to take any good news at this point and run with it so don't be surprised if we see a small rally in the coming days for whatever reason or another, but don't take it as a FOMO chance. We're gonna need to see Bitcoin hold above this Fib point for the next few days if we want a good shot at another rally, however that is much easier than said as always.
Technical:
I haven't used the EMA Ribbon on any of my Idea posts yet however when I did use it, I always found that it could tell so much. If you look at past price action we can see that at the end of January the Ribbon looked about the same as it did now before we saw that unbelievable rally. I'm not here to say we will see such a rally again, but at some point, the ribbon always has to flip. So expect to see a flip soon in the ribbon at least, that sounds like the dumbest advice one can give. But if you've used EMA before then you should understand what I mean. Anyways if we break below this FIB level just hold to your guns because whether or not you like it, we're definitely gonna see that run we've been wanting. But we'll need Russia's invasion to end and we'll have to see just how aggressive the FED wants to be in it's fight against inflation.
Thank you again and apologies for the delay, it's been an extremely busy week with a lot going on but I'm so happy to be back with another idea for you guys! Hope you guys have an amazing day and please be sure to leave a like and follow, it would really be much appreciated.
But for the most important part. Please pray with me tonight and for as long as it takes that this brutal and terrible invasion may come to an end. And for the well being of all those in Ukraine. May this unnecessary bloodshed come to an end soon.
~ Rock
So. We can't really say that this week was a shock. I called out a dramatic fall occurring following the massive impulse movement we saw mid march. What comes up, must come down. And when it comes to the market here is a good rule to note: "When you see an impulse movement up, you should more or less likely expect a fall just as strong to follow or at least be pushed by market makers."
Factors to note
- We had a few factors starting with a short term positive market outlook on the Ukraine war ending soon with Russia signaling it was pulling out of Ukraine's west with many interpreting such as a positive signal however as I noted in one of my recent idea's, it seemed more like Russia was regrouping it's troops to prepare for a stronger offensive in Ukraine's East. White house officials also noted that this was the more likely scenario and that is exactly what has happened. We have seen some of the most grueling and atrocious acts of violence as well as war crimes not seen since World war II on behalf of Russian soldier's as they left towns behind leaving nothing but death and destruction in their wake in the past week with more coming to light every single day. In the least to say, nobody could have expected just how ugly things have turned out.
- For the next factor we're gonna have to look at Terra Labs. The market likes to look at bitcoin and follow it as we understand. And in early March we saw Terra make some big Bitcoin purchases to add to it's treasury reserves which will support it's stable coin UST. Sure it's just one entity. But regardless the purchases we have been seeing are in the hundreds of millions, the market could have interpreted the purchases as institutions adding more to Bitcoin and caused essentially this sort of FOMO rally.
- The last and most important thing and factor is the market liquidity. Liquidity is extremely important to crypto as it can tells us whether or not the market is prone to being swayed easily or affected greater by large transactions than usual. March we saw relatively low liquidity in the market with most major BTC holders keeping to their bags and holding their positions firmly. It's thanks to that Market makers as well as Terra's actions could have been mistaken for large buying volume on behalf of whales and the start of a 'bull run' for those that didn't do their research. Thanks to the low liquidity it allowed a lot of the crypto market to have a short term run up however when we got to those high levels, you can bet that those "bag holders" decided to take some sweet profits. Like I continue to say, market makers and whales are brutal and will make profit however they can. They will go long and then short, you just have to be aware and keep ahead.
- Another factor that has hit us is Inflation data. Tuesday's inflation report signaled an inflation increase of 8.5% in the past year alone. To put that into perspective, it is the sharpest year-over-year increase since 1981. This has been a result of bottlenecked supply chains, robust consumer demand as well as disruptions to the global food and energy markets worsened by Russia’s war against Ukraine. From February to March, inflation rose 1.2%, the biggest month-to-month jump since 2005. Gasoline prices drove more than half that increase. If there was ever something to put a damp on investors moods and cause fear, it was this. However investors focused on the bright side of the report being the CPI. CPI is core inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The CPI rose just 0.3% from February to March, the smallest monthly rise since September. Over the past year, however, core prices are up 6.5%, the most since 1982.
What should we expect next?
While we can't predict the market, we do have these nifty things called Fib lines which give us an indication of a stock or crypto's strength. If we look at the Fib retracement right now we can see we've broken through a few checkpoints however now we are at the point of the most resistance. Personally I expect to see some move back to the upside from here, at least in the short term. But for us to establish any sign of a potential Bull run or real move back to the upside, we're gonna need to see some strength and see bitcoin either stay within this Fib level or move out of it to the upside for some real strength to kick in. Right now investors are dealing with fear from the inflation report as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine which only seems to intensify by the day. The market will likely be happy to take any good news at this point and run with it so don't be surprised if we see a small rally in the coming days for whatever reason or another, but don't take it as a FOMO chance. We're gonna need to see Bitcoin hold above this Fib point for the next few days if we want a good shot at another rally, however that is much easier than said as always.
Technical:
I haven't used the EMA Ribbon on any of my Idea posts yet however when I did use it, I always found that it could tell so much. If you look at past price action we can see that at the end of January the Ribbon looked about the same as it did now before we saw that unbelievable rally. I'm not here to say we will see such a rally again, but at some point, the ribbon always has to flip. So expect to see a flip soon in the ribbon at least, that sounds like the dumbest advice one can give. But if you've used EMA before then you should understand what I mean. Anyways if we break below this FIB level just hold to your guns because whether or not you like it, we're definitely gonna see that run we've been wanting. But we'll need Russia's invasion to end and we'll have to see just how aggressive the FED wants to be in it's fight against inflation.
Thank you again and apologies for the delay, it's been an extremely busy week with a lot going on but I'm so happy to be back with another idea for you guys! Hope you guys have an amazing day and please be sure to leave a like and follow, it would really be much appreciated.
But for the most important part. Please pray with me tonight and for as long as it takes that this brutal and terrible invasion may come to an end. And for the well being of all those in Ukraine. May this unnecessary bloodshed come to an end soon.
~ Rock
