This is Monthly Log Chart from Bitstamp as it has data since 2011. More history and past data helps in analyzing the behavior and price structure.
Three Analysis on a monthly log chart on BTCUSD pair.
(1) Harmonic ABCD
Distance covered in AB Leg is same as Distance covered in CD leg (1:1 extension). C point as shown in the chart is retraced to 0.382 Fib of AB Leg and D point is at 2.618 Fib projection of BC Leg.
(2) Elliott Wave Analysis
You can see a Zigzag on a major degree. Zigzag is ABC where A leg is impulsive, B leg is corrective and C leg is impulsive. I have marked Substructure within zigzag clearly where in 12345 impulse is shown with blue colors and ABC correction is shown in red color. Note that this counts are based on monthly long term counts and usually in zigzag Wave A and Wave C are often at the same distance meaning distance covered in A leg is roughly same as distance covered in C leg. As we know EW Waves are fractal in nature I can go in major degree wave and count sub-waves and I will do that in some time in the lower time frame to count waves accurately with its FIB relation. But Usually this Zigzag and its impulse subwaves are preferred count. Alt count is not shown here.
(3) I have also shown Modified Shiff pitchfork and analyzed price against the pitchfork FIb levels. Pitchfork is very useful tool in analyzing the price and its long term trend. As you can see it took resistance around 1.618 FIB last time and retracement usually goes till median Line. With the same logic (and there is no reason to believe that it should not work this time) I am expecting roughly around 17K to 19K Price range where BTC should come.
Hope it helps.
Cheers
KB
Three Analysis on a monthly log chart on BTCUSD pair.
(1) Harmonic ABCD
Distance covered in AB Leg is same as Distance covered in CD leg (1:1 extension). C point as shown in the chart is retraced to 0.382 Fib of AB Leg and D point is at 2.618 Fib projection of BC Leg.
(2) Elliott Wave Analysis
You can see a Zigzag on a major degree. Zigzag is ABC where A leg is impulsive, B leg is corrective and C leg is impulsive. I have marked Substructure within zigzag clearly where in 12345 impulse is shown with blue colors and ABC correction is shown in red color. Note that this counts are based on monthly long term counts and usually in zigzag Wave A and Wave C are often at the same distance meaning distance covered in A leg is roughly same as distance covered in C leg. As we know EW Waves are fractal in nature I can go in major degree wave and count sub-waves and I will do that in some time in the lower time frame to count waves accurately with its FIB relation. But Usually this Zigzag and its impulse subwaves are preferred count. Alt count is not shown here.
(3) I have also shown Modified Shiff pitchfork and analyzed price against the pitchfork FIb levels. Pitchfork is very useful tool in analyzing the price and its long term trend. As you can see it took resistance around 1.618 FIB last time and retracement usually goes till median Line. With the same logic (and there is no reason to believe that it should not work this time) I am expecting roughly around 17K to 19K Price range where BTC should come.
Hope it helps.
Cheers
KB
Comment:
Harmonic Crab Pattern is formed. SL for Crab pattern is usually below/around FIB 2.
It is shown there. Reaction target is 0.382 FIB and a Reversal target is 0.618 FIB.
But Trend is still -ve so M not expecting T2 for now and for T1 Price needs to comply with Pattern levels and consolidate here.
Harmonic Crab Pattern is formed. SL for Crab pattern is usually below/around FIB 2.
It is shown there. Reaction target is 0.382 FIB and a Reversal target is 0.618 FIB.
But Trend is still -ve so M not expecting T2 for now and for T1 Price needs to comply with Pattern levels and consolidate here.
Snapshot attached for more clarity