let it be that we go all the way up to $80k or even $100k ... then what?
before a new bull run starts, the problems needs to be resolved, new markets need to be reached, so that there's something else but merely speculation feeding the growth, there's some of that going on, but not enough compared with the price; that's what the NVT indicator tells us; it's too much speculation, not enough actual demand for actual usage ...
the problems need to be resolved first; there are still way too many features that paypal and banks offer that for bitcoin are simply total non-existing
leverage trading = fractional reserve lending
etc etc etc
we need a prolonged bottom period, but ... I can see it peak to $80k now and then go for another bear market, a much longer bear market; 2-3 years down, down down ... that would then be the punishment for this embarrassing mini bubble
but ok, wait and see, as long it dips below the $6k and then takes many slow months to climb up again; that would be healthy
it shouldn't peak above $10k for another 6-9 months ... otherwise we're in bubble territory, which speculators love, but it keep companies that make a lot of international payments out of bitcoin
at this point bitcoin is a speculative asset, not a currency, which means that most of the growth is artificial, which means that the problems keep increasing, while none of the problems are being solved ... no different than the stock market ...
we didn't solve anything ... yet!
that's my best guess for now
I'm looking into shifting channels, but I can't find any for now, it's too soon
and if it were to peak to $10k now, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to drop as low as that dark red bottom line