Bitcoin - What are happening?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In some recent days, almost all coin strong go up. And we had a lot of good news, some say BTC is come back for a strong bullish , beside that other else say BTC just prepare for a strong dips. So, who say the trust? And what are happening? Buy now or wait to a strong dips?
I will discuss about this but please note you do not need to trust me. Your money- your responsibility to make profit or lose it. You can consult many ideas but finally the decision is your self.
To fair, I'm owning Bitcoin and some altcoin. Ok, let's go!

Look at the daily chart:
- The price hard down from ATH after fully upward on Fib channel, 4.764 level.
- The price has broken Fib channel basic line - level 0 - two times at point 1' and 2'
- The price has reversed from $6500 level
- Break out from 1st hard downtrend line
- The price has broken MA 50, under MA 100, under MA 200
- MA 50 and MA 100 in down trend, MA 200 still go up
- MA 50 has converged with MA 100 and MA 200, MA 100 has converged with MA 200
- Volume 20 is downing

Before talk anything please note that the price still in bubble zone. Why?
If you know about Fib retracement, you know basislly an upward movement only maximum at 4.764 level. (from level 0-4.0 is stable, level 4.0-4.764 is mini bubble level).
Now, make a Fib retracement with the ATH on 2013 and the bottom on 2015. Basisly, the new ATH maximum will nealy $4967. Yes, it has reached this level first time on 08/31/2017.

Also basislly, it must be correction to Fib retracement level 0.236 ($1200) before make new upward movement for stable but it hadn't. We can see the price has reversed from $2900 and pass $5000 very quickly. Since it happened, Bitcoin has beganing bubble upward movement.

BTC began the mega bullish on 10/13/2015 since the price upward from MA 200. Since this day, the price almost never under MA 200. The correction just made price hit MA 200 some time but it rebounded very soon.
Look at the MA of Volume 20, we can see "stronghold" strategy has begun since August, 2016. Then with 5 step, the price reached fully Fib retracement

After correction and pass $5000 very fast we had bubble upward movement. The bottom of step 5 and step 6 gave us uptrend line level 0 of Fib channel, the top of step 4 ($5000) gave us the uptrend level 1 of Fib channel. And the result was bubble reached Fib channel at level 4.764 (maximum). It made a new ATH of nearly $20000 as you can see.

However, the bubble was crashing as you can see the price closed under MA 50, MA 100 and MA 200. We can see the top of MA 50 and MA 100 but MA 200 still go up.
We have break out point and the movement has exited from 1st hard downtrend line so in the short term, the price will go up but MA 200 will become strong resistance zone .
See on the chart, this zone is about $9700 - $10130.
So, what will happen? Please note that the market goes as it self, it doesn't move as your hope or my. We just do the trade by the signal we see. The zone (9700-10200) will become very important zone.
You can sell when it reach this level or a part and track the new signal. If the price reversal from this zone and the next top after correction is under MA 200 and it will down to lower support level (target 1: $4160, target 2: $2500)

If the price broke this level and move up from MA 200 then hit atleast $12800, we have confirmation that the bullish is come and the price move up on the bigger bubble. The maximum of new ATH basiclly is around $71000 (Fib retracement level 4.764) but might higher as what we learned when the price pass $5000 on 2nd times. On bubble z
Comment: Update TA according weekly chart. I'm offer "left hand" trading rule based on Elliot waves.
We have an impulse up and a correction by Elliot cycle : 12345 and 6789-10.

When price pass ATH on 2013, bull run was started. We can see the price up to 3k, correction to 1k8 then up to 5k then correction to 2k9. So 3k couldn't become the top of 1st waves (it is violated Elliot rules)

So the Elliot waves for this cycle is:
0: 1250
1: 5k
2: 2k9
3: 8k2
4: 5k4
5: 20k
Ok, we have everything become correctlly.

Now see the correction cycle (6789-10). Yeah, you can ask me why 6789-10 but not 678?

Basiclly, Elliot waves big cycle just have an impulse (12345) and a correction (678) but it only right when the market move naturally. On this cycle Bitcoin is in bubble as I've explained on the daily chart above.

We have fomo to "over bought" we also have panic to "over sold". I set 9-10 as "over sold" wave - bubble crash.

Well, so you can see very clearly that the correction isn't finished yet. At least we have wave 7-8.

Moreover, on this chart we can see a rebounding from MA 50 but in my opinion it can't pass previous top (11k8) then two top will take a second downtrend line for Elliot wave 7-8.

So, why I do this update? Please note, as I told, you don't need to trust me. Always trust your self and manage the risk.

If you are long term investor, you have nothing do do right now but you can consult my idea to buy more Bitcoin at strong dip bottom.

If you are short term trader/investor, I don' recommend you to buy BTC at more than 10k on this time line. 10k-11k8 is very dangerous zone. But if you bought, my advise to set a stoploss at 9k.

Hope got more feedback from you and please excuse for my terrible English. Thanks.
Comment: Be careful bull trap. In a classic movement, after reach 9k price should go to 9k8 -10k for testing bull. However, we can see a lot of manipulation so the price might drop under this level or higher up.

Money is your self, I don't advise you to buy or not. But I don't put any new order on this timeline. Buying on the market is controlled and hope someone help you pump to get profit isn't smart strategy.

By anyway, good luck if you bought.

Update TA:

The price has reached SMA 100, still under SMA 200. RSI still on over bought zone but volume 20 still down.

We can see the candle is moving nearly "Bear" line. We can see three times latent to crash but whales have hard pumped to keep it up. So on this final effort, the pump is crazy. However, any red candle will become drop signal. We need to track when price reach 9500, 9500-10150 USD is very dangerous zone, market might reversal at any time from this level.
Comment: To clear, I'm holding Bitcoin for long term so honestly I don't want to see price dip but I still keep the opynion that Bitcoin still in bearish.
Comment: Below is short term chart: 5 mins

Seem whales have leaved market and the bull is tired. Normally, we will see a crash soon. Short term trader can place a peding order at $8300, profit target: $9000. Stoploss: $8000
Comment: New Bitcoin movement style: pump and dump within 30 mins. So many crazy manipulation! Crypto currencies market look like a landfills right now.
Comment: -------------------------------------
Daily chart
- The price is moving nearly SMA 200 and higher Ichimoku cloud
- The AVG line of Bollinger Band has reached SMA 100 and hitting Ichimoku cloud
- The Ichimoku cloud has changed color, the bollinger band is moving up
- 3 pivot point confirmed by Ichimoku cloud: $14010, $10200, $8578
- 3 strong resistance level confirmed by Ichimoku cloud: $11600, $12600, $14400
- Setup support zone at $8100

Weekly chart
- The price is under AVG line of Bollinger band and Ichimoku cloud
- The AVG line of bollinger band is going to down
- Bollinger band is narrowing
- The Ichimoku cloud is flatting and narrowing
- 3 strong resistance zone: $10200, $11598, $12700

So, what does it's mean?

Before I talk anything, please note that "price always has tendency to move to the top of Ichimoku cloud and bullish if pass the top of Ichimoku, correction to middle of Ichimoku and crash when exit from Ichimoku cloud"

So, on this timeline, price has tendency to test $10200 level (fit with first weekly resistance zone and Pivot point on daily chart)

After reach $10200, we can sure the price will go up to next resistance level $11600, $12600 is possible.

To confirm bullish, the price must be reach $14000 and keep higher $10200 after correction.
It's bullish or bearish?
It's in bearish as price still under the AVG line of Bollinger band and Ichimoku cloud and the AVG line of bollinger band still moving down.
But if price can reach $14000 and move up after correction to $10200 we can sure the bullish is back.
How to trade trade?
- You can place a pending order at $10250 or right now.
- Profit target at strong resistance level: $11600, $12600
- If after you sold all coin and price reach $14000, you can do a margin trading with leverage at this level and profit close is nearly $10200.
- Stoploss: $8000
Comment: Fake volume, a dirty manipulation.
Comment: A reject from $9300 which supported by Ichimoku base line give us the confirmation for downtrend in the short term

Next support level: $8200, $7400

Comment: The uptrend has been broken, in the short and neutral term Bitcoin will not up.
However, by the over sold on 1h and 4h chart we can could see a rebound to $9012 before dip to lower level.

Make sure you don't panic sell of then regret to see it rebound.
Comment: Current position is very important, we need to see what will happend on tomorrow. The price is supported by SMA 50 right now. If it couldn't reversal from this level I can sure that bearish is back, no any hope for upward.
Comment: Short term trade: BTC is ready to retest $9000 level
Comment: The candle is falling down from SMA 50 and Ichimoku cloud confirm new downtrend. Don't make short term trade on this timeline.
Comment: A correction to nearly $7500 is possible

Comment: The price has reached support zone by uptrendline. Wait for new signal
Comment: Current up trendline has been broken, wait more 1 day to confirm. If the price still below $7000 on tommorow, it's the confirmation for a movement to nearly $4100.
Comment: On 4h chart, RSI is confirm for reversal from current uptrendline, main support level: $7500

Addition confirmation on daily chart when price reach $8100
Comment: Seem everything is ready to a strong reversal:
Comment: Market has failed to reversal. We need to track the wedge, only by when you see the breakout signal.

In usual,the price rebound from MA 50 then back one more time, it's the signal for strong drop.

In the case price hard drop, the zone $4200 will become strong support.

Comment: Short term trade
Buy zone: $6850-$6950
Profit target: $7600
Stoploss: $7380


Price has failed to reversal from SMA 100 and Ichimoku Cloud bottom base line. The correction to $8300-$8500 is possible.
Hi, Don't you update your ideas these days?
I'd like to see your analysis.
Look like it's ready to a crash.

Short term trade still works: peding order should be placed at $8300, profit target: $9000. Stoploss: $8000
wow..what a wick...maybe it's the target zone for the weekend..
Thank you good chart.
vh6889 salingom
@salingom, you are welcome.
English, please...
vh6889 Oboogie
@Oboogie, yeah, sorry. My English is very bad .... :(
Snacks vh6889
@vh6889, there is nothing wrong with your English...thank you for the TA. :)
+1 Reply
vh6889 Snacks
@Snacks, thank you for understand :3
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