Feeling fearful? Of course you are. Thought a quick update on price action would be welcomed during this utterly boring sideways price action that continues to be gripped by fear. This is not the first time nor will it be the last.
Let us start with the fear and greed index with current price action shown above on the 2-day chart:
1) January 4th (today): 23
2) September 28th @ $41k: 25
3) July 18th @ $30k: 19
Bitcoin on exchanges at the above dates:
1) 2,308,329
2) 2,406,219
3) 2,555,730
Yes, you read that correct. There is now less BTC on exchanges today that there was at $30k and $41k of recent. But that’s nothing..
Bitcoin on exchanges February 4th 2021 when price was $46.4k: 2,446,592
There is now less bitcoin on exchanges than that at the start of last year’s rally at the same price. Go figure.
The Trend - what is it?
Higher highs and higher lows. Until price action breaks $40.5k, the trend is up. A sell off to this level would be an impressive feat as exchanges need at least an extra 150k Bitcoin to make up that selling pressure.
The Golden ratio:
On the same 2-day chart (below) the Fibonacci re-tracement is drawn.
1) On September 28th price action dropped to the 0.618 Golden ratio (yes I know it shows the 0.786, that’s because I’ve extended it to the new higher high for (2) below).
Isn’t it fascinating that price action tested the 0.618 golden ratio at the same time fear and greed was in the low 20’s?
2) Today price action is testing the 0.618! Exactly so. If we were to pettifog, I’d say exactly at $45.5k, which makes for a very interesting point. Every single sell off in the last 20 days has its wick stopping dead flat at $45.5k.
Is it a coincidence that price action now tests the golden ratio at the same time fear and greed is in the low 20’s? no.
That red line:
I mentioned this in another idea. Now while I’m no massive fan of moving averages there’s some that are very hard to ignore. One of them being the 2-day / 200-day SMA (that’s actually 400 days of data). I use those obscure time frames during market volatility.
A fact of the chart. NEVER in Bitcoin’s entire history has this SMA been broken during a bull market. And we are in a bull market.
What else… ah yes, January 8-9th. Price action is currently in a falling wedge pattern reaching its apex by January 8-9th. One way or another price action must breakout.
Hope that alleviates the fears!
WW
Let us start with the fear and greed index with current price action shown above on the 2-day chart:
1) January 4th (today): 23
2) September 28th @ $41k: 25
3) July 18th @ $30k: 19
Bitcoin on exchanges at the above dates:
1) 2,308,329
2) 2,406,219
3) 2,555,730
Yes, you read that correct. There is now less BTC on exchanges today that there was at $30k and $41k of recent. But that’s nothing..
Bitcoin on exchanges February 4th 2021 when price was $46.4k: 2,446,592
There is now less bitcoin on exchanges than that at the start of last year’s rally at the same price. Go figure.
The Trend - what is it?
Higher highs and higher lows. Until price action breaks $40.5k, the trend is up. A sell off to this level would be an impressive feat as exchanges need at least an extra 150k Bitcoin to make up that selling pressure.
The Golden ratio:
On the same 2-day chart (below) the Fibonacci re-tracement is drawn.
1) On September 28th price action dropped to the 0.618 Golden ratio (yes I know it shows the 0.786, that’s because I’ve extended it to the new higher high for (2) below).
Isn’t it fascinating that price action tested the 0.618 golden ratio at the same time fear and greed was in the low 20’s?
2) Today price action is testing the 0.618! Exactly so. If we were to pettifog, I’d say exactly at $45.5k, which makes for a very interesting point. Every single sell off in the last 20 days has its wick stopping dead flat at $45.5k.
Is it a coincidence that price action now tests the golden ratio at the same time fear and greed is in the low 20’s? no.
That red line:
I mentioned this in another idea. Now while I’m no massive fan of moving averages there’s some that are very hard to ignore. One of them being the 2-day / 200-day SMA (that’s actually 400 days of data). I use those obscure time frames during market volatility.
A fact of the chart. NEVER in Bitcoin’s entire history has this SMA been broken during a bull market. And we are in a bull market.
What else… ah yes, January 8-9th. Price action is currently in a falling wedge pattern reaching its apex by January 8-9th. One way or another price action must breakout.
Hope that alleviates the fears!
WW
Comment:
What a difference a few days away from the screen makes! 120 messages. Can’t answer them all, but the jist..
Topics:
“Are we going to $30k?!”
“$26k incoming with NVT colour change”
“The FED are raising interest rates! Everything will now crash”
Folks stay away from social media. It is not helpful. You want the news? Look in the charts.
The bearish sentiment on price action is extraordinary. Fear and Greed just hit '10' on January 8th. That level and lower has not been seen since:
1) July 21st @ $30k
2) March 2020, 20th @ $5k
3) August 2019, 22nd @ $10k (following a drop from $12.5k, oh how I laughed at that one).
Now ask yourself had you bought at those levels (1 - 3), would that be regret?
On the daily chart below price action is trading outside the Bollinger Band leading up to the low sentiment readings, just as in the past. 95% of all price action trades within the band. That’s not my opinion, that’s just a fact. A test of the mean should occur in the near future (pink line), which is currently around $47k.
Zooming out to the weekly price action is testing the 0.618 golden ratio. During the March 2020 crash price action tested and confirmed. Will this time be different?
The game is over if price action closes candle bodies below $41k. Why? Look left. That would be a break of market structure. Watch that level closely.
All said and done, the sentiment is super bearish. The crowd is bearish. The crowd are always right, correct? Actually no.
Moreover short positions have increased 150% in the last few days, an excellent indicator for long positions. Why din’t the short position open up at $68k in November? Why open up now?
Topics:
“Are we going to $30k?!”
“$26k incoming with NVT colour change”
“The FED are raising interest rates! Everything will now crash”
Folks stay away from social media. It is not helpful. You want the news? Look in the charts.
The bearish sentiment on price action is extraordinary. Fear and Greed just hit '10' on January 8th. That level and lower has not been seen since:
1) July 21st @ $30k
2) March 2020, 20th @ $5k
3) August 2019, 22nd @ $10k (following a drop from $12.5k, oh how I laughed at that one).
Now ask yourself had you bought at those levels (1 - 3), would that be regret?
On the daily chart below price action is trading outside the Bollinger Band leading up to the low sentiment readings, just as in the past. 95% of all price action trades within the band. That’s not my opinion, that’s just a fact. A test of the mean should occur in the near future (pink line), which is currently around $47k.
Zooming out to the weekly price action is testing the 0.618 golden ratio. During the March 2020 crash price action tested and confirmed. Will this time be different?
The game is over if price action closes candle bodies below $41k. Why? Look left. That would be a break of market structure. Watch that level closely.
All said and done, the sentiment is super bearish. The crowd is bearish. The crowd are always right, correct? Actually no.
Moreover short positions have increased 150% in the last few days, an excellent indicator for long positions. Why din’t the short position open up at $68k in November? Why open up now?
Comment:
Please be careful if you're holding a open BTC short position. The number of open positions is almost equal to the last liquidation event of early December when BTC broke out of resistance.
Comment:
A 'incredible buy' flashes up now and again on the daily chart. It is conditional only, it is NOT yet confirmed.
Ask me again in the days ahead!
Ask me again in the days ahead!
Comment:
PS, the log growth curve chart is fascinating right now. IF price action closes above $40.5k by January 17th, it's all good. Why? Look left..
On the weekly chart below price action is testing the 23.61% fib level (blue highlights) just as it did before back in July. Just as fear and greed was reaching record low levels.
On the weekly chart below price action is testing the 23.61% fib level (blue highlights) just as it did before back in July. Just as fear and greed was reaching record low levels.
Comment:
Studying the lower time frames is best avoided, but my curiosity got the better of me.
On the 12-hour chart below price action prints a ‘incredible buy’ signal. Look left!! This signal is printing on all high volume exchanges.
The previous signals were ‘great buy’s and were excellent. Now we have a ‘incredible buy’. The many hours developing those indicators for times like this is rewarding.
If history is anything to go by we should see a sudden surge to the yellow dotted line (lower pi cycle channel), $50k.
A lot of folks asking me about $30k. If $40.5k fails then price action will have broken market structure. Price action in that scenario will test $13k before resuming uptrend.
On the 12-hour chart below price action prints a ‘incredible buy’ signal. Look left!! This signal is printing on all high volume exchanges.
The previous signals were ‘great buy’s and were excellent. Now we have a ‘incredible buy’. The many hours developing those indicators for times like this is rewarding.
If history is anything to go by we should see a sudden surge to the yellow dotted line (lower pi cycle channel), $50k.
A lot of folks asking me about $30k. If $40.5k fails then price action will have broken market structure. Price action in that scenario will test $13k before resuming uptrend.
Comment:
$42,400 is the support area.
BTC
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
bc1q2eckdzh0q8vsd7swcc8et6ze7s99khhxyl7zwy
Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
Daily chart
On the lower time frames (4 hour chart below) price action is miles outside the Bollinger Band. 95% of all price action trades within the band (purple circles). A relief to $45.5k should occur soon enough, price action ALWAYS returns to the band, look left.
My advice, switch off the computer for a few days!
4 hour chart