Sorry bulls, it looks like the downtrend continues…
There was lots of celebration on this small rally (even more than the last), but it would *appear that we have put in yet another lower high. I see lower highs and lower lows. Still plenty of bulls to be rekt before we can turn things around. Many of you have seen my two charts (linked here) which pretty accurately called the top. Well, this chart takes into account recent price action. There’s a fairly simple pattern occurring: a retracement of between 0.5-0.786 of the last leg before continuing down to new lows.
With regard to the daily, there’s also bearish divergence on the stoch, and the MACD is now below the zero line which it has remained above throughout this whole uptrend (since May 2016 (barring a brief period of time it went below during the bitfinex hack). So, of course, if it recovered back above, and real *fast, then okay--and the histogram was hinting at this happening--yet instead the daily candle will likely print uncertainty/weakness. Some selling here should send us to continue on trending down below the zero line. RSI is fairly neutral around here.
I have also provided a 4h view which looks bearish to me.
The weekly has been red for 3 weeks in a row, although it finally put in a candle of uncertainty…OKAY. Fine. That provided hope. But the monthly candle that is about to print does not inspire confidence, it says we need another 1-3 months of down for a nice handle to this giant cup.
I am the biggest (long term) perma-bull there is, but I can separate my view of this amazing technology from my analysis. In the short term…what is there to be bullish about? Threats of contentious hard forks from the stupid BU crowd (is there even a crowd? I can count them on my hand. Aside from hash power of course). And now a leaked document has come out that Bitcoin Classic will be forking off into an alt-coin (remember them?). I have to laugh.
To be honest if BU would have just taken this path from the start as opposed to threatening what would effectively be a 51% attack on bitcoin, and just created their own alt in instead of this coordinated coup attempt (using a potential attack on the minority chain and bitcoin.com to confuse the unsuspecting public), and hijack the value btc has gained as digital gold, etc, then maybe we could all have nice things. But anyway, I digress.
Threats of contentious HF’s, threats of POW algo changes, USAF’s, I can’t even keep track. So much uncertainty. Further, we’re still unsure of what the hell the deal is with bitcoins biggest market in China and their exchanges, the PBOC, etc, nothing is clear. Tons of uncertainty. What markets hate most is uncertainty. The irrational hype for the ETF is over. The only thing that could save us now would be some unexpected global financial crisis, but will that come in the next few weeks? Probably not.
Who knows, things can change fast in bitcoin, we shall see, but that is my take.
There was lots of celebration on this small rally (even more than the last), but it would *appear that we have put in yet another lower high. I see lower highs and lower lows. Still plenty of bulls to be rekt before we can turn things around. Many of you have seen my two charts (linked here) which pretty accurately called the top. Well, this chart takes into account recent price action. There’s a fairly simple pattern occurring: a retracement of between 0.5-0.786 of the last leg before continuing down to new lows.
With regard to the daily, there’s also bearish divergence on the stoch, and the MACD is now below the zero line which it has remained above throughout this whole uptrend (since May 2016 (barring a brief period of time it went below during the bitfinex hack). So, of course, if it recovered back above, and real *fast, then okay--and the histogram was hinting at this happening--yet instead the daily candle will likely print uncertainty/weakness. Some selling here should send us to continue on trending down below the zero line. RSI is fairly neutral around here.
I have also provided a 4h view which looks bearish to me.
I am the biggest (long term) perma-bull there is, but I can separate my view of this amazing technology from my analysis. In the short term…what is there to be bullish about? Threats of contentious hard forks from the stupid BU crowd (is there even a crowd? I can count them on my hand. Aside from hash power of course). And now a leaked document has come out that Bitcoin Classic will be forking off into an alt-coin (remember them?). I have to laugh.
To be honest if BU would have just taken this path from the start as opposed to threatening what would effectively be a 51% attack on bitcoin, and just created their own alt in instead of this coordinated coup attempt (using a potential attack on the minority chain and bitcoin.com to confuse the unsuspecting public), and hijack the value btc has gained as digital gold, etc, then maybe we could all have nice things. But anyway, I digress.
Threats of contentious HF’s, threats of POW algo changes, USAF’s, I can’t even keep track. So much uncertainty. Further, we’re still unsure of what the hell the deal is with bitcoins biggest market in China and their exchanges, the PBOC, etc, nothing is clear. Tons of uncertainty. What markets hate most is uncertainty. The irrational hype for the ETF is over. The only thing that could save us now would be some unexpected global financial crisis, but will that come in the next few weeks? Probably not.
Who knows, things can change fast in bitcoin, we shall see, but that is my take.
Comment:
Comment:
Bitcoin going up for now, $1100-$1150 next. Don't fight the market.
