BTC overdue for a Correction but Bull Run NOT done yet?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Part of my ongoing analysis of Bitcoin movements (see links below).

As usual, BTC has gone higher then expected, and will probably drop lower than desired.
But this bull run ha shown a strong structure and a methodical rise with plenty of retests.
We can expect a significant retrace but probably not a crash (famous last words, right?)

The velocity and momentum of the parabolic move suggests a "wave 3".
It is highly likely that our wave 3 is done, or is very close to completion.
If so, we should look for a wave 4 to retrace, and then a wave 5 finish.

Plotted are 3 possible paths, Blue most likely, Green for Bull, Red for Bear.
The EW pathways are mere GUESSES, but the zones are SOLID and will react.
Reactions at each of the support zones should provide clues of the strength.

Some of the zones are quite "tall" in this preliminary plot.
As price moves, I will update fined tuned zones of interest.
Hit "follow" on this idea to receive notifications of updates.

9928 - 10k might have psychological support for a bounce.
9638 - 9711 is the minimum expected retrace target.
9025 - 9105 is essentially Bulls Last Stand, must hold.


My previous charts catching every key turn and giving early warnings (click the links below):
9.7k Bounce <= mapped within $10
10k Targetted
9.4k focussed target
8.2k to 10k wave 5
9k barrier Foretold <= Warning in Time
8k ReBag in HiRes
8475 Top Call <= Mapped within $5
Sub 7k Foreseen
Big Picture Fibs <= the 3 Fibs of Life
7800 Dump Warning
7080 Rocket Foreseen <= within 20 cents!
14k target call <=Perfect TP
10k target call
3.1k bottom call <=EXACT 2018 bottom

Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend.
But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets.
Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.

Comment: Battle Stations!

Dip under way. Got nice Ping on this red 3.236 of the drop but I think at least the 3.618, likely the 4.236 for this dip


Comment: Wave 4 Done?

Probably not done, but we do have a very nice bounce exactly where could blue path still looks plausible.
green path is probably out, as wave 3 is likely done.
red path is still VERY possible, so will leave that on chart.


Following up on the zoom for last update above, and the red fib of the dorp: that 3.236 has held thus far.
And we are well above the 2.618, often a strong fighter.
Next hurdle is the 1.618 above, which WILL be tough in the place of the 2.618.


Looking at the structure of retrace and proposed wave 4: Two equally probably options here:
Blue abc would be a completed wave 4 (should have three sub waves and it does).
Red abc is entired possible because wave C should have five sub waves and does not appear to have it.
On the other, other hand, strong bull markets end to have truncated wave C's (no sub wave 5)


- It is POSSIBLE that wave 4 is done and w5 starting
- but ALSO possible that we have another leg down (wave 5 of C).
- Red 1.236 is the real test, but getting past the red 1.618 would be a good start.
- IF we surpass 10,504 from here, then bulls are VERY strong

Comment: Follow up to last pic above:

Looks like ABC might be done (see text notes in pic) but am weary because the bounce point to end the proposed wave C was from middle of nowhere.
Maybe that is a bull sign that it did not need to Ping off the fib below.
So $9711 is now the KEY line in sand, if held we have a good chance it has bottomed.

Comment: Followup to last PIc above:

Since last update, we did make a lower low, and my suspicion of the first bounce point proved correct.

So instead it looks an ABCDE correction We bounced from the red 4.618, and next hurdle is the red 2.618.
2.618's are always strong, so lets see if this one has built up it strength again after last breach.

I am trying to project updated targets, should have something soon, after next dip perhaps.

Comment: Moment of Truth

Just hit the red 4 target at $9100.

On the 4h tf: the relevance of this level is visible to naked eye, no need for fibs.

]Zoom way IN (5 min) for a closer look at our zone clearly it is being recognized again.
But not looking very "bouncy" on the upper bound.
Looks like it will test 9k round before pondering a bounce....

the Golden Ratio is my Religion
the Trading View is my Nation
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Related Ideas


If 9,100 does not hold do you think the next stop is 8,450.
If it makes another pump, it looks alot like now is 25/04/2018 and the top 07/05/2018.

Either way, stacking up shorts safely.
Thank you for you excellent job.
I agree with you
as always, thank you for your in depth analysis. :)
EuroMotif TradingSargent
@TradingSargent, it is my pleasure, hope it is helpful
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