BTC clearly hesitated in the lower 10k's to fall through and managed to spring back up. This indicates that support is still strong enough to sustain these higher prices. As we are climbing back up we are approaching a possible breakout pattern, with a breakout price of 16500usd Bitfinex that coincides with a break of the 62fib. After we take out this level there is both a bull and a bear scenario, as always.
BULL: The bulls want to see a strong break of the 62fib carrying good volume and a run for the 78fib, even better if price would crush the 78fib immediately aswell. On the pullback the bulls can definately count on 16500usd being turned into support as it is also an important volume profile level indicated on the chart. This new support level could provide new energy to crush the important 78fib at around 18000usd. If the bulls manage to reconquer that level, then the road to 20k is clear. Depending on the short term structure and the strength of the setups, 20k can be broken and we will see new all time highs. However if we are approaching 20k in a shakey and weak structure and have a dump to sub 18k after retesting 20k, then there is still a chance of a bearish double top.
BEAR: The bears know that they lost the battle in the lower 10k's, but they are not angry, as they are getting shorts from higher prices. They know the 62fib will be taken out eventually at 16500usd, because thats where a lot of liquidity lays for the whales to play with and for retail to get flushed out of their shorts. The bears are putting all their hope on the 78fib at 18000usd. They would want to see a test of that level on which the price will fail and fall back. Once thats done, they need to reconquer the 62fib aswell. They are hoping for a drop under the 62fib to around 15-16k.
OPINION: I am currently long from 14.5k and still holding long. However I will cut 50% of my long position right at 16500usd where the shorts will get flushed and are forced to buy back. Depending on the weekly candle structure I will be holding or closing my long, it is too early to tell. Considering I'm better at short term trading and setups I might hop in and out.
BULL: The bulls want to see a strong break of the 62fib carrying good volume and a run for the 78fib, even better if price would crush the 78fib immediately aswell. On the pullback the bulls can definately count on 16500usd being turned into support as it is also an important volume profile level indicated on the chart. This new support level could provide new energy to crush the important 78fib at around 18000usd. If the bulls manage to reconquer that level, then the road to 20k is clear. Depending on the short term structure and the strength of the setups, 20k can be broken and we will see new all time highs. However if we are approaching 20k in a shakey and weak structure and have a dump to sub 18k after retesting 20k, then there is still a chance of a bearish double top.
BEAR: The bears know that they lost the battle in the lower 10k's, but they are not angry, as they are getting shorts from higher prices. They know the 62fib will be taken out eventually at 16500usd, because thats where a lot of liquidity lays for the whales to play with and for retail to get flushed out of their shorts. The bears are putting all their hope on the 78fib at 18000usd. They would want to see a test of that level on which the price will fail and fall back. Once thats done, they need to reconquer the 62fib aswell. They are hoping for a drop under the 62fib to around 15-16k.
OPINION: I am currently long from 14.5k and still holding long. However I will cut 50% of my long position right at 16500usd where the shorts will get flushed and are forced to buy back. Depending on the weekly candle structure I will be holding or closing my long, it is too early to tell. Considering I'm better at short term trading and setups I might hop in and out.